Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hatman 🍁]

In which the Toronto Star doesn't get that the polling swings have all been within the margin of error.

Seriously, the Tories were at 30% on day one. They are at 30% now. There is no massive comeback going on.

The amount of "#analysis" coming from the media in this election is really driving me crazy

[DL]

In which the Toronto Star doesn't get that the polling swings have all been within the margin of error.

Seriously, the Tories were at 30% on day one. They are at 30% now. There is no massive comeback going on.

Yeah, right from the start it has always been a possibility that the Conservatives would win a plurality of seats...Hepburn (who deserves a golden turkey award for being the Star's most consistently stupid and useless columnist) acts like he just woke up to that fact today. Its not as if the Tories were in single digits and given up for dead up until a week ago - at worst they were a couple of points behind.

Of course Hepburn doesnt bother to mention that unless the Tories get a majority, its still almost impossible for them to form a government.

[Krago]

In which the Toronto Star doesn't get that the polling swings have all been within the margin of error.

Seriously, the Tories were at 30% on day one. They are at 30% now. There is no massive comeback going on.

Yeah, right from the start it has always been a possibility that the Conservatives would win a plurality of seats...Hepburn (who deserves a golden turkey award for being the Star's most consistently stupid and useless columnist) acts like he just woke up to that fact today. Its not as if the Tories were in single digits and given up for dead up until a week ago - at worst they were a couple of points behind.

Of course Hepburn doesnt bother to mention that unless the Tories get a majority, its still almost impossible for them to form a government.

I disagree.  If the Tories finish first and the NDP second, the Liberals will almost certainly allow the Tories to meet Parliament and introduce a Throne Speech, and will discreetly support them by abstaining on key votes.  There is no way that the Liberals permit themselves to support a Mulcair government as a junior partner.

If the Tories finish first and the Liberals second, the NDP will almost immediately announce their support for a minority Trudeau government, along with a wish-list of Cabinet posts and policy concessions.  If the Liberals refuse, Mulcair will say that he tried.

[Vosem]

Some more riding polls were conducted by Mainstreet Research, who last week showed a single-digit lead for Trudeau in Papineau. These are in Atlantic Canada, and mostly confirm conventional wisdom:

The Liberals have a strong lead in Avalon, 37-16 over the NDP. Notably, scandal-plagued ex-Liberal incumbent Scott Andrews comes in third at 13%, ahead of the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives were within single digits here four years ago (and actually carried this riding in 2006).

The Conservatives are leading a three-way race in Central Nova, 29Con-22Lib-19NDP. This riding, which is being vacated by former PC party leader, Harperite Cabinet minister, and possible future leadership contender Peter MacKay (who is only 49 years old), is generally considered to be the Conservatives' best shot at holding a seat in Nova Scotia, where they are at risk of being shut out.

The Liberals have a strong lead in Cumberland-Colchester, 35-24 over the Conservatives. This race is a battle of personalities, as the Liberals are running former PC/Conservative/Independent MP Bill Casey, who has (off and on) represented this riding for a total of 17 years, while the Conservatives are running incumbent MP Scott Armstrong, who has held the riding since a 2009 by-election but is receiving his first serious challenge. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Harper haters in Central Nova don't know who to vote for. I figured the Liberals would win the seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Akin and Poitras were discussing on Twitter how limited NDP offensive capability is in the Maritimes. Apart from South Shore-St. Margaret's, Akin thinks Dippers should be playing defence out East. Fun fact from CBC's David Cochrane: all 3 SJSMP candidates are journos. 2 TV (O'Regan and the Tory), 1 print (Cleary). Only one of them nationally famous though.

[cp]

Libs pull ahead in Ipsos poll

Libs:33
NDP:30
Tories:27

Big gains for the Libs in Ontario, status quo for all in Quebec, Tories/Libs basically tied for second in BC.

Also, it's worth checking out the link for the unsettling manga renderings of the leaders' faces in the pie charts

[RogueBeaver]

Once again, Ipsos the outlier. Nanos and Forum have Tories ahead nationally and in Ontario.

[cp]

All the more reason to look forward to the EKOS numbers tomorrow, to see if the Tory slide and Lib gain they recorded last week continues.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has had the Tories third since August. Also has the Tories at 39% in Alberta (!) and higher in SK/MB than Alberta. That I can't believe.

[DL]

Once again, Ipsos the outlier. Nanos and Forum have Tories ahead nationally and in Ontario.

Nanos essentially has a three way dead heat

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, but they didn't see a big Grit jump like Ipsos or have the Tories at 40% in Alberta. I guess we'll wait for EKOS tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Akin and Poitras were discussing on Twitter how limited NDP offensive capability is in the Maritimes. Apart from South Shore-St. Margaret's, Akin thinks Dippers should be playing defence out East. Fun fact from CBC's David Cochrane: all 3 SJSMP candidates are journos. 2 TV (O'Regan and the Tory), 1 print (Cleary). Only one of them nationally famous though.

NDP has a better chance at winning Saint John than South Shore IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Where are you guys reading that we're releasing a poll tomorrow? News to me.

[cp]

I just assumed. They released a poll 6 days ago and then 7 days before that.

In any case, the ipsos poll is the first to show a big jump in Ontario for a while. Should be interesting to see it play out.

[DL]

I've heard the exact opposite form other pollsters...most see a Tory resurgence in Ontario and the Liberals falling behind

[Holmes]

The Toronto 'burbs must be conflicted, the poor things.

[136or142]

Harper slams Justin Trudeau for 'lack of understanding of business.' F-35 will cost at least $45 billion over its lifetime for Canada and the Conservatives say that Canada can pick up $10 billion in business from F-35 program (actual signed contracts for the F-35 are $600 million and there is no interest from any other country in the world at this point.)

A replacement fighter plane would cost maybe half of the F-35 over its life.

This is what the Conservatives tout as having 'business acumen?'

[politicus]

@Hash: Moderating Adam's use of Sleazy Steve is a bit unfair when you yourself have introduced and keep using the whole Panzerdaddy, Panzergirl, Panzermiss meme. Harper is of course a more "respectable" and mainstream pol than the Le Pen family, but there should be a common standard. Either you can nickname pols you detest, or you can't.

[136or142]

If Sleazy Stevie isn't allowed (and it's a perfectly apt desciption of that thing) then neither should the term "Justin" for Justin Trudeau be allowed.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin said under no circumstances would he support a Harper minority.

[Simfan34]

@Hash: Moderating Adam's use of Sleazy Steve is a bit unfair when you yourself have introduced and keep using the whole Panzerdaddy, Panzergirl, Panzermiss meme. Harper is of course a more "respectable" and mainstream pol than the Le Pen family, but there should be a common standard. Either you can nickname pols you detest, or you can't.

Don't forget Poison Dwarf. I'm genuinely surprised Hash would do that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh I'm responsible for that one

[SATW]

If Sleazy Stevie isn't allowed (and it's a perfectly apt desciption of that thing) then neither should the term "Justin" for Justin Trudeau be allowed.

lol go away. you literally offer no real contributions in this thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hash had some ration un-nice things to say about Harper back in the day, so the double standard is surprising.