Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[136or142]

If Sleazy Stevie isn't allowed (and it's a perfectly apt desciption of that thing) then neither should the term "Justin" for Justin Trudeau be allowed.

lol go away. you literally offer no real contributions in this thread.

If I offer no real contribution, then disprove me on this:
Harper Sleazy Stevie slams Justin Trudeau for 'lack of understanding of business.' F-35 will cost at least $45 billion over its lifetime for Canada and the Conservatives say that Canada can pick up $10 billion in business from F-35 program (actual signed contracts for the F-35 are $600 million and there is no interest from any other country in the world at this point.)

A replacement fighter plane would cost maybe half of the F-35 over its life.

This is what the Conservatives tout as having 'business acumen?'

[DC Al Fine]

Hash had some ration un-nice things to say about Harper back in the day, so the double standard is surprising.

Double standard or not, I'm glad he's enforcing it here. This is one of the best places on the internet to discuss politics. If I want juvenile name calling, I can read the comments at CBC.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the point of it either. Most people on this Forum have already made up their minds about Harper.

[RogueBeaver]

Ian MacDonald on the stakes for Thursday's debate.

Léger previewing Thursday's national poll, hints at important movement in BC/ON/QC.

[2952-0-0]

Léger previewing Thursday's national poll, hints at important movement in BC/ON/QC.

I'm seeing red. The Liberals have been very convincing in running to the left of the NDP, who are trying too hard to look centrist and have in general run an uninspiring campaign. Their escalator ad is especially inspiring.

Also, the Bloc's ad claiming the NDP will build a pipeline transporting liquefied niqabs to Quebec might as well have a "Paye par le parti Conservateur" message at the end.

Next, in our series of CPC candidates exposed for hideous online posts: http://www.pressprogress.ca/this_conservative_candidate_is_not_happy_about_the_separation_church_and_state

Even the Greens aren't immune to candidate bozo comments: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/canada-election-2015-lyndia-briguene-niqab-ban-green-party-1.3239345

Robert Jago, for his part, promises to expose more CPC candidates, but only after the September 28 nomination deadline to force the CPC to take ownership.

[RogueBeaver]

Le Devoir on our niqab politics.

Joe Daniel has a bozo eruption on refugees.

CBC on debate stakes for Mulcair and Globe for Justin.

[Njall]

Leadnow has released 31 riding polls that were conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 21

Vancouver Granville: 36% - 30% - 29% - 6%
Port Moody--Coquitlam: 41% - 34% - 19% - 7%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge: 41% - 35% - 19% - 6%
North Island--Powell River: 41% - 27% - 18% - 14%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith: 34% - 24% - 24% - 17%
Kootenay--Columbia: 37% - 37% - 15% - 11%

Yukon: 39% - 29% - 27% - 4%

Calgary Centre: 47% - 39% - 11% - 3%

Saskatoon University: 37% - 37% - 22% - 4%

Winnipeg South Centre: 38% - 31% - 23% - 8%
Elmwood--Transcona: 39% - 37% - 20% - 4%

Eglinton--Lawrence: 37% - 35% - 24% - 4%
Etobicoke Lakeshore: 40% - 38% - 19% - 3%
Kitchener Centre: 33% - 31% - 30% - 7%
London North Centre: 35% - 35% - 25% - 5%
Willowdale: 45% - 36% - 15% - 5%
Kanata--Carleton: 44% - 37% - 13% - 5%
Nepean: 40% - 34% - 19% - 8%
Orleans: 51% - 36% - 11% - 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean: 39% - 35% - 20% - 5%
Waterloo: 39% - 31% - 26% - 3%
Niagara Falls: 42% - 27% - 25% - 6%
Sault Ste. Marie: 34% - 31% - 30% - 6%
Brantford--Brant: 39% - 30% - 25% - 6%
Cambridge: 43% - 34% - 17% - 6%
Guelph: 45% - 25% - 18% - 12%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: 43% - 29% - 20% - 9%

Fredericton: 37% - 32% - 20% - 10%
Saint John--Rothesay: 38% - 33% - 25% - 4%

Central Nova: 50% - 23% - 20% - 7%
Cumberland--Colchester: 54% - 32% - 7% - 6%

[Poirot]

Even the mayors of Montreal and Quebec City are against niqabs at citizenship ceremonies so there is massive opposition to this.

If I understand correctly the Conservative government could have acted by the Cabinet changing the rule instead of only issuing a ministerial directive and not change the rule.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger out: 38 (-8), 22 (+2), 20 (+2), 18 (+5). Usual reminder about the Francophone + regional vote. Nationally: 31/31/29. He said on Twitter that the Grits are going up in Montreal, Tories in central, Bloc in regions.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Conservative candidate in Winnipeg South Compares abortion to the Holocaust and September 11th.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/conservative-candidate-in-winnipeg-likens-abortions-in-canada-to-holocaust-and-a-9-11-every-day

[RogueBeaver]

And an NDP candidate didn't know what Auschwitz was.

[BaconBacon96]

And an NDP candidate didn't know what Auschwitz was.

How a public official can be so ignorant beats me.

[Vosem]

Some fascinating riding-level polling. A couple of things jump out:
- The Greens are within single digits of the NDP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. If this is correct, it seems to suggest to me (perhaps incorrectly) that the Greens may be leading in Victoria, which has yet to be polled and is their key target this election. Certainly May herself is safe in Saanich.
- Elmwood-Transcona: this riding has been polled before, when only a small NDP lead was found. Considering how unpopular the provincial NDP government is in Manitoba, a Conservative hold here is a plausible (if perhaps not likely) result. Considering the strong NDP heritage of this seat (it was created as Winnipeg-Birds Hill for 1979, and since then has always voted NDP except in 2011 -- in 1993 it was the only NDP seat in Manitoba and anywhere in the country east of Saskatchewan) it would be rather funny if the NDP achieved a plurality and formed its first government without it.
- Guelph: a poll earlier in the year here had the NDP narrowly leading the Liberals. This seems closer to reality for a heartland seat in a province where the Liberals are far above their 2011 numbers.
- London North Centre: considering that the NDP are improving in southwestern Ontario, this result seems plausible. Still, since this is a seat where a narrow (37%-35%) Conservative victory was surprising even in 2011, this would also be a mildly odd seat for the Conservatives to hold in 2015.
- Central Nova: a poll conducted here just recently showed a close three-way race with the Conservatives barely out in front. These guys have the Liberals ahead double-digits. Who is right? Either seems at least plausible in this riding, which shows how much uncertainty there is in certain parts of Canada.

Also, this forum missed three polls in Quebec conducted by Segma Research, in Chicoutimi, Jonquiere, and Lac-Saint-Jean. Strong leads for the NDP were found in Chicoutimi (41-19 over the Liberals) and Jonquiere (37-21 over the Conservatives), while locally popular Conservative incumbent Denis Lebel was found to be narrowly fending off the NDP in Lac-Saint-Jean (35-29). All three results are in line with conventional wisdom.

[trebor204]

Leadnow has released 31 riding polls that were conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 21

Kanata--Carleton: 44% - 37% - 13% - 5%

There are two Conservatives candidates in Kanata?

[136or142]

Insights West Poll of B.C
NDP: 34% -7
Con: 28% +6
Lib: 26% +2
Green: 11% -1
http://www.insightswest.com/news/smaller-lead-for-ndp-as-tories-gain-ground-in-british-columbia/

[DC Al Fine]

Vosem, remember that this polling is sponsored by one of those ABC strategic voting groups, so we ought to take it with an additional grain of salt on top of the grain of salt we take normal riding polls with.

[jaichind]

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2015/09/24/conservatives-take-lead-in-latest-ekos-poll

Might be outlier but latset EKOs poll has CPC at 35.4 LIB 26.3 NDP 24.5.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet's Ontario poll has 38/34/22. If you'd told me 4 years ago that EKOS would be bullish and Ipsos bearish on our fortunes...

[jaichind]

Sorry if I am asking a question previously answered in this thread already, but assuming that CPC becomes the largest party bu way short of majority, and with Mulcair and Trudeau  ruling out backing a minority Harper government, I assume the result with be a CPC minority government under new leadership.  I assume neither Mulcair nor Trudeau would want to play second fiddle to the other as they will just end up bleeding support in the next election.

[RogueBeaver]

They would defeat Harper on the Throne Speech as happened in Ontario 30 years ago. Working with Jason Kenney would be no more palatable to them than Harper.

[cp]

Mainstreet's Ontario poll has 38/34/22. If you'd told me 4 years ago that EKOS would be bullish and Ipsos bearish on our fortunes...

... you would be rightly worried that Ipsos was, once again, only a point or two off for all parties while EKOS's Tory numbers were the one conspicuous outlier out of all recent polling?  

Meanwhile:

Leger: 31 31 29
Nanos: 31.5 30.5 30.8

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, I just want this stupid deadlock to end.

[Njall]

Leadnow has released 31 riding polls that were conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 21

Kanata--Carleton: 44% - 37% - 13% - 5%

There are two Conservatives candidates in Kanata?

Haha, whoops, that's what I get for copy-pasting the results format so I don't have to keep typing colour tags.  I've fixed it in the original post; the CPC candidate has a 7-point lead over the Liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls:

From Maintreet Research:

Ahuntisc-Cartierville
37-34-13-13

Mount Royal
50-27-16-7

Richmond-Arthabaska
46-35-10-7

And a bunch of Forum ones.

Eglinton-Lawrence
44-38-17

Etobicoke Centre
43-42-11

Etobicoke Lakeshore
41-33-22

Scarborough Southwest
35-32-27


[Insert riding poll disclaimer here]

The Quebec polls are interesting. I didn't thought the Tories would have a chance in Richmond-Athabaska unless Bellavance was on the ballot to split the vote. Also, if Mourani pulls of a win, she'll be the new "landslide" Anne MacLellan

[Vosem]

The Conservative candidate in Richmond-Arthabaska, Alain Rayes, has been mayor of Victoriaville (about 40% of the riding's population) for the past 6 years, and is apparently quite popular. So this could be a riding where the Conservatives outperform.

Vosem, remember that this polling is sponsored by one of those ABC strategic voting groups, so we ought to take it with an additional grain of salt on top of the grain of salt we take normal riding polls with.

True perhaps, but none of these polls jump out as obviously fabricated the way (for example) the recent poll showing the NDP ahead in Papineau did.