Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison on Tory Maritime woes.

[King of Kensington]

Ivison on Tory Maritime woes.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories in the Maritimes reduced to just three rural New Brunswick seats.

[DL]

Ivison on Tory Maritime woes.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories in the Maritimes reduced to just three rural New Brunswick seats.

I agree, and the only reason the Tories will probably salvage 3 or 4 seats in New Brunswick is that the new NB Liberal government is now very unpopular.

[King of Kensington]

Rural NB is a lot more right-wing than rural NS.  Tobique-Mactaquac votes like Leeds-Grenville.

[136or142]

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Yeah, Jews who speak negatively about other Jews tend to be popular among many non-Jews. Always extremely revealing.

I'm sure many members of the German NPD will agree with the comments of the Canadian NDP guy. Always the same trick, considering the moronic ideas of some crazy, utterly insignificant Hasidic sect suddenly representative for all Haredim. Shows that people, both non-Jews and assimilated Jews, are still so much - unconsciously - inclined to believe negative things about Ashkenazi Jews who are not assimilated and who dress "stereotypical". Good that the guy had to step down.
[/quote]


The last thing we need is a religion debate spinning this thread off topic. If you which to continue this discussion, do so in another thread on the appropriate board, and keep this thread on topic. Thank you.

I recognize this, but as the comment was addressed to me, I'd like to respond here.

1.I'm Jewish myself which I said in my first comment, albeit a secular Jew, and to the degree that I have any religious views it would be leaning towards being a Messianic Jew mainly because I in no way want to be associated with the God of the OT.

2.The commentator on the G and M website said that many Israeli non Ultra Orthodox Jews agreed with her, so dislike of some of the Ultra Orthodox is far more than just with non Jews.  To be sure, you may have a point that the Ultra Orthodox are more varied in their views than they are given credit for, I'm not sure myself what it's supposed to be revealing of.

3.If this sect and other Ultra Orthodox Jews who agree with them are as small as you claim, then how, as I posted a link to above, did they manage to push through laws that prevent women from praying on most of the Wailing Wall and how did they manage to get laws past that criminalize women from doing things at the Wailing Wall that men are allowed to do. I know the vagaries of the Israeli PR system and all that, but it takes more than a tiny number to get vile, sexist laws like those passed.

Anyway, if you are interested, I would appreciate a response in an appropriate thread.  Merely post a link to it here.

[136or142]

Ivison on Tory Maritime woes.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories in the Maritimes reduced to just three rural New Brunswick seats.

I would expect the Conservatives to hold on to Central Nova. 

[RogueBeaver]

IRG: 31/30/29.

Some people deserve each other.

[Holmes]

Ontario continues to ruin my life even after I've moved to California.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I kind of hate "this person compared x to y" scandals. To make a comparison or analogy is not to say that the two things are identical in all respects.

The analogy between the Haredim and the Taliban is a poor one, since the Taliban are not a sect but a political and military movement. Someone in a village outside Kandahar who practices a very conservative Wahabbism in their private life, but does not engage in political activity, is not a member of the Taliban. But one can be Haredi just by leading one's private life in a certain way without political activism. Indeed, the Hasidim in Canada, unlike in Israel, seem mostly pretty detached from party politics.

But still, I think it's a negative trend that you have to watch your language so closely, when you are a private citizen before coming a candidate, to avoid some party staffer blocking you from running.

This sense that you can't run for office without having had your whole life approved by a PR department is one reason for the appeal of people like the Fords or Donald Trump.

[Hash]

Talking of Hasidic Jews, there's an interesting Hasidic community right outside of Boisbriand on North Shore Montreal called Kiryas Tosh, an extremely conservative community (the Wiki article has a list of their local values or whatever, which are all terrifying) which reminds me of Kiryas Joel in NY. Their election results are noteworthy since barely any of them vote and are all over the place in the last 4 elections.

2011:
Turnout 8%
Lib 32 (47%)
Con 32 (47%)
Bloc 3 (4%)
Grn 1 (1%)
NDP 0 (0%)

2008:
Turnout 10%
Bloc 25 (47%)
NDP 9 (17%)
Con 9 (17%)
Lib 7 (13%)
Grn 3 (6%)

2006:
Turnout 17%
Con 47 (45%)
Lib 28 (27%)
Bloc 23 (22%)
NDP 4 (4%)
Grn 2 (2%)

2004:
Turnout 24%
Lib 50 (45%)
Bloc 37 (33%)
Con 20 (18%)
Grn 4 (4%)
NDP 1 (1%)

In provincial elections, turnout is roughly as low, but the difference is that basically everybody who does vote votes Liberal (literally 100% in 2008!).

[Hatman 🍁]

Why are Canadian parties so bad at screening candidates? Obviously this sort of thing happens everywhere and is unavoidable to an extent (because people lie and no one has the time to check out everything about the paper candidate for Unwinnable East), but the sheer number of occurrences given the relatively small number of seats? Every election?

It's more to do with how vigorous opposition research is. It gets nastier and nastier with every election.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Does it really take all that much effort to dig this stuff up? Give some 17 year old a Best Buy gift card and tell him to look at ____'s Twitter and Facebook pages for an afternoon. That's about all it'd take to find half this stuff.

[DL]

There may be juicier stuff to come. Keep in mind that September 28 is the deadline to put candidates on the ballot so for example if the Liberal candidate who is a 9-11 conspiracy theorist drops out today, the Liberals can still name a replacement candidate. After September 28 that will no longer be possible. I would guess that if the NDP had some really damaging information about a liberal candidate in a seat the NDP was trying to win, they would sit on it until sept 29 and then drop the bomb so that there ends up being no liberal on the ballot at all in the riding in question. I'll bet each of the parties has a few of those up their sleeves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This sense that you can't run for office without having had your whole life approved by a PR department is one reason for the appeal of people like the Fords or Donald Trump.

Whole post is good, but this part in particular is very true.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The other surprising thing about all this is how these people appear to have their personal Facebook accounts publicly viewable. Surely that would be easy for party HQ to tell them not to do.

[RogueBeaver]

Radwanski on NB.

[RogueBeaver]

Star on Brampton. Also waiting to see if Abacus/Ipsos are showing similar movement to Nanos. Speaking of Abacus...

UdM polling guru Claire Durand: here in QC IVR gives CPC/BQ higher # than live interviews, internet has LPC higher than NDP. Overall: English Canadian polling could underestimate the Tories, and as usual watch methodologies/overall pic.

[DC Al Fine]

Spent the weekend in Cape Breton, touring around. All of you should do the Cabot Trail btw if you are ever out east.

Whole place was a sea of red signs. I saw maybe thee Tory signs and a lone NDP sign the whole time I was there

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Cast a special ballot for Mississauga—Lakeshore's Stella Ambler from Vancouver Centre the other day. Feels nice to cast a ballot that might actually matter. I guess it comes with the territory of living in a downtown riding, but as long as I have a claim to residency in the swingy 905, I'll take it for voting purposes.

And yes, the Cabot Trail is beautiful. Sydney, however... Well, I'll just say I didn't really find it offered much by way of things to do.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't believe Abacus showing the Dippers tumbling into a 3-way race here in QC. Nanos seems more believable.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cast a special ballot for Mississauga—Lakeshore's Stella Ambler from Vancouver Centre the other day. Feels nice to cast a ballot that might actually matter. I guess it comes with the territory of living in a downtown riding, but as long as I have a claim to residency in the swingy 905, I'll take it for voting purposes.

And yes, the Cabot Trail is beautiful. Sydney, however... Well, I'll just say I didn't really find it offered much by way of things to do.

Vancouver Centre is a potential 4-way race, though I reckon the Liberals will likely hang on.

[DL]

I don't believe Abacus showing the Dippers tumbling into a 3-way race here in QC. Nanos seems more believable.

Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s

[2952-0-0]

The days when the CPC was plagued by US stock photos and reeling from peeing/masturbating candidates, while having an agendaless campaign seem like an eternity ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 33/32/27.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't believe Abacus showing the Dippers tumbling into a 3-way race here in QC. Nanos seems more believable.

Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s

This is true, although the other parties would still make some modest gains if the NDP were at 30%. Quebec City and Laval would be more in play for example, and the Bloc might actually win seats!