Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[politicus]

Ipsos: 33/32/27.

NDP picking up some steam again? Or just a fluke?

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos: 33/32/27.

NDP picking up some steam again? Or just a fluke?

Neither. They're down from the last Ipsos poll and Nanos, Ipsos and Abacus all have the NDP at 27%.

[Vega]

I've noticed that it's commonplace for leaders to just switch language in the middle of their sentience, is there some equal language speaking rule?

[Barnes]

I've noticed that it's commonplace for leaders to just switch language in the middle of their sentience, is there some equal language speaking rule?

No, that's common for all bi-lingual politicians in Canada -- especially during debates in the House of Commons.

[politicus]

Ipsos: 33/32/27.

NDP picking up some steam again? Or just a fluke?

Neither. They're down from the last Ipsos poll and Nanos, Ipsos and Abacus all have the NDP at 27%.

Yeah, I see. Its just the counterintuitive colour scheme (for a European NDP should be red and the Grits orange).

[Gary J]

I've noticed that it's commonplace for leaders to just switch language in the middle of their sentience, is there some equal language speaking rule?

No, that's common for all bi-lingual politicians in Canada -- especially during debates in the House of Commons.

I have read a biography of Sir Wilfrid Laurier, which from memory mentioned that in the 19th century the House of Commons had a rule against switching between the French and English languages in mid-speech. It was with reference to a bi-lingual politician who, after being interrupted, continued his remarks in the other language than the one he had been using previously.

[Poirot]

Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s

I put the Abacus numbers in the Too close to call simulator and was surprised to get 49 NDP seats which such a low vote percentage. It gave 15 Lib, 11 CPC and 3 Bloc. Last week Léger had the Bloc at 25% among francophones when at 20% general voting intentions so I imagined if the NDP gets only 30% the gap in francophone vote is something like 5% and there would be more of a split in number of ridings won.

I heard my first Conservative ad on local media (I've seen many times their attack ads on English Canadians tv channels). It was a radio ad talking about their legislation on niqab at citizenship ceremony. I had figured they must be concentrated their advertising in their target areas between Trois-Rivières and Rivière-du-Loup.

I also heard a Bloc radio ad last week about oil and niqab and returning to the Bloc. I think this one was attacking the NDP. The Conservative one mentioned Justin and Mulcair.

Many times I have come across Liberals ads on tv and radio (and even on the net), Trudeau talking about jobs and family allowances.   

I think I saw one tv ad in French from the NDP one or two weeks ago and yesterday an internet banner when I visited  La Presse website. They had the most campaign signs up in the days after the campaign was launched.

I'm thinking I don't watch tv at the right time because there must be more advertising going on.

[Vega]

I've noticed that it's commonplace for leaders to just switch language in the middle of their sentience, is there some equal language speaking rule?

No, that's common for all bi-lingual politicians in Canada -- especially during debates in the House of Commons.

I have read a biography of Sir Wilfrid Laurier, which from memory mentioned that in the 19th century the House of Commons had a rule against switching between the French and English languages in mid-speech. It was with reference to a bi-lingual politician who, after being interrupted, continued his remarks in the other language than the one he had been using previously.

Yeah, it's super distracting. Did the leaders switch language to English in the French debate? I doubt it.

[DL]

Yeah, it's super distracting. Did the leaders switch language to English in the French debate? I doubt it.

No, but the Maclean's and Globe debates were always ENGLISH debates and the Radio Canada and TVA debates were always FRENCH debates. In order to maintain linguistic parity, the Munk debate was meant to be a BILINGUAL debate so it was always expected that the leaders would speak both languages.

[RogueBeaver]

Post on EgLaw, HuffPo on Mont-Royal.

Kheiriddin on the debate.

[Boston Bread]

The sign war in my street has gotten interesting. Usually there is a flood of Conservatives and one or two Liberals. And it's in a poll that always votes Conservative (67% in 2011).

When I put my NDP lawn sign down a month ago, it was the first one in my street that I can remember. Now NDP signs outnumber the Conservatives! By one sign, but still, it came as quite a surprise to me. Not a Liberal to be found, and the one house that reliably put out a Liberal sign before is one has become an orange convert. While I don't expect the NDP to win in my riding, but it's refreshing to see such a change.

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls from Forum:

Edmonton Centre
40-30-27

St. Albert-Edmonton
38-29-19-11

Ottawa West-Nepean
46-35-15

Kind of surprised at how well Rathberger is doing, although I'm guessing he'll under perform near the end.

Also, I wish someone would do riding polls of Fortin and Plamondon's ridings. Those could be some interesting races.

[RogueBeaver]

Think that OWN poll has a Grit lead, DC.

[DC Al Fine]

Think that OWN poll has a Grit lead, DC.

You are correct. Typo on my part. Fixed.

[Kevinstat]

St. Albert-Edmonton
38-29-19-11

What's the black?  Is that Inky Mark's (new) riding?

[Linus Van Pelt]

St. Albert-Edmonton
38-29-19-11

What's the black?  Is that Inky Mark's (new) riding?

It's Brent Rathgeber, the incumbent who was elected as a Conservative but has been an independent for a couple of years.

[Vega]

How is Inky Mark doing in Manitoba? When he announced, it didn't look like he had a chance.

[Lotuslander]

Well, this is certainly bizarre... Frank Graves of Ekos tweeted last night:

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[RogueBeaver]

Ian MacDonald on the NDP campaign.

Gazette on the niqab debate.

Harper interview.

Hmm.

Kinsella on the Yukon rematch.

Noah Richler makes the wrong kind of news.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So I've been out, what's the reason NDP has dropped in the polls?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Mulcair looks all well and good on paper but in practice has thusfar ran a boring as f**k campaign.

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

Well, the only thing worse than people that speak English instead of French, is people who speak neither I guess...

[politicus]

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

Well, the only thing worse than people that speak English instead of French, is people who speak neither I guess...

Immigrants to Quebec tend to prefer English, even those from former French colonies with a francophone tradition.

[Vega]

Mulcair looks all well and good on paper but in practice has thusfar ran a boring as f**k campaign.

I'd actually contend that on paper, he looks pretty not great. His campaign hasn't been that bad, though.

[Njall]

So I've been out, what's the reason NDP has dropped in the polls?

Part of it is that their numbers in Quebec (and Ontario, somewhat) have been dropping recently.  Arguably, their very high recent numbers in Quebec were inflating their national numbers to a certain degree.