Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

How is Inky Mark doing in Manitoba? When he announced, it didn't look like he had a chance.

No one really knows. There hasn't been any polling. I think he'll pull a respectable amount for an independent, but come nowhere near winning pr playing spoiler (say 10-15%)

[DC Al Fine]

So I've been out, what's the reason NDP has dropped in the polls?

Part of it is that their numbers in Quebec (and Ontario, somewhat) have been dropping recently.  Arguably, their very high recent numbers in Quebec were inflating their national numbers to a certain degree.

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

[politicus]

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

Why did they decide to be against it? It is not like if it was a hijab or chador etc. The niqab makes you  a non-entity to the outside world, while the citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen. Attending it in a niqab is absurd.

Just PC run amok?

[DL]

It was reported on the news that in the last five years 680,000 people have taken part in citizenship ceremonies and of them a grand total of TWO have worn niqabs during the ceremony. Its always been allowed - now all of a sudden some politicians are trying to play the "race card".

Its funny how 150 aboriginal women have been murdered or gone missing in recent years and no one gives a damn - but God for bid that TWO women want to wear a piece of cloth over their faces at a ceremony and suddenly some people claim to care about women's rights!

Its pure rightwing populist xenophobia and pandering...not unlike those kooks who tried to make a big deal about a small mosque opening within an office building a kilometer away from the 9/11 site...

I am not crazy about the idea of some women wearing niqabs, but there are many things that societies around the world demand of women that i find offensive. I disgusts me that Orthodix Jews force their women to shave their heads and wear wigs - but it should not be illegal. It also offends me that so many women in the western world feel that in order to have any value in the yes of men they need to cripple themselves by wearing high heeled shoes...but i also don't think there should be a law against high heel shoes   

[politicus]

Its pure rightwing populist xenophobia and pandering...

That is quite possibly the motive, but since it is basically a reasonable demand it seems stupid to oppose it. "We are against this because we do not want to be on the same side as the bad guys" is always a stupid reason. You need to evaluate issues on their own merit and sometimes you then end up on the same side as people you do not like.

[jaichind]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

[RogueBeaver]

Grit candidate in Victoria fired for comments about Islam and the Mideast.

[King of Kensington]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

The NDP has blown it in Ontario, and probably won't win more than 20 of its 121 seats.  Mulcair's condescension towards Trudeau doesn't play well among the many soft Liberals in the province.

Right now it looks like the Tories are going to have the most seats and a minority (maybe 130 or so) with the NDP and Liberals very close together which should make for an "interesting" minority parliament. 

[Boston Bread]

Its pure rightwing populist xenophobia and pandering...

That is quite possibly the motive, but since it is basically a reasonable demand it seems stupid to oppose it. "We are against this because we do not want to be on the same side as the bad guys" is always a stupid reason. You need to evaluate issues on their own merit and sometimes you then end up on the same side as people you do not like.

The Supreme Court struck it down, isn't that evidence against it being a reasonable demand?

Also for the Victoria Grit, are they going to be able to find a replacement? The deadline to nominate candidates has passed.

[politicus]

Its pure rightwing populist xenophobia and pandering...

That is quite possibly the motive, but since it is basically a reasonable demand it seems stupid to oppose it. "We are against this because we do not want to be on the same side as the bad guys" is always a stupid reason. You need to evaluate issues on their own merit and sometimes you then end up on the same side as people you do not like.

The Supreme Court struck it down, isn't that evidence against it being a reasonable demand?

No, that only relates to the legal status - not whether it is reasonable. Hiding a woman behind a veil is 
not something that should be backed by progressives. Even if she is indoctrinated to support it herself.

[Boston Bread]

I don't back the veil but it doesn't mean I want to force women not to wear it against their beliefs. As for indoctrination, every religious or cultural tradition can be labelled as that.

Allowing the wearing of a veil in the citizenship ceremony is also a "reasonable demand", albeit a demand that makes life easier and not more frustrating for the 2 women who wanted to do so. And keep in mind that by that point of the ceremony, their identity has already been confirmed so whether they take off the veil or not makes absolutely no difference.

[RogueBeaver]

There has been open debate in the NDP on niqabs: 2 incumbent candidates today dissented from Mulcair's view. Today Mulcair himself said he understands people's unease and the niqab makes him personally uncomfortable, while reiterating his position. We'll see what happens at the TVA debate on Thursday.

[DC Al Fine]

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

Why did they decide to be against it? It is not like if it was a hijab or chador etc. The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

Just PC run amok?

Strategically, the NDP was/is stuck. The Liberal base is very anti niqab ban, while the Tory and Bloc bases are pro niqab ban. The NDP has a more mixed profile with an Anglo progressive anti-ban wing, and a Francophone pro-ban wing. By staying anti-ban they opened themselves up to attacks from the Bloc and Conservatives, but if they had gone pro-ban, they would have opened themselves up to attacks from the left from the Liberals.

Personally, I think they made the correct choice strategically. The NDP can afford lost votes more in Quebec than ROC. Unless the Bloc really takes off, their decline in Quebec will cost them something like 5-6 seats. A similar decline in ROC would hurt a lot more.

[DC Al Fine]

FTR I'm anti-niqab ban.

I'm a member of a religious minority that is sometimes criticized in the same manner that Islam is. My inclination is to side with the minority in these cases unless the burden on the public at large is really large.

[DavidB.]

Why is Bloc Québécois in favour of banning it?

[politicus]

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

Why did they decide to be against it? It is not like if it was a hijab or chador etc. The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

Just PC run amok?

Strategically, the NDP was/is stuck. The Liberal base is very anti niqab ban, while the Tory and Bloc bases are pro niqab ban. The NDP has a more mixed profile with an Anglo progressive anti-ban wing, and a Francophone pro-ban wing. By staying anti-ban they opened themselves up to attacks from the Bloc and Conservatives, but if they had gone pro-ban, they would have opened themselves up to attacks from the left from the Liberals.

Personally, I think they made the correct choice strategically. The NDP can afford lost votes more in Quebec than ROC. Unless the Bloc really takes off, their decline in Quebec will cost them something like 5-6 seats. A similar decline in ROC would hurt a lot more.

That makes sense. Although the whole idea that it is leftist or progressive to be in favour of accepting women being hidden non-entities is problematic, but an election campaign is no time to fight that battle.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's a very classic thing for Bloc and its provincial counterpart to fall back upon certain dog-whistles. To a certain segment for the Quebec nationalist base, Quebec should be for the Québécois alone.

[2952-0-0]

Mulcair looks all well and good on paper but in practice has thusfar ran a boring as f**k campaign.

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

That, and the NDP gambit of moving to the centre to become more electable backfired when the Liberals made left-ish promises about increasing public investment and health care spending.

[lilTommy]

Mulcair looks all well and good on paper but in practice has thusfar ran a boring as f**k campaign.

Also Quebec responds well to racism, evidently.

That, and the NDP gambit of moving to the centre to become more electable backfired when the Liberals made left-ish promises about increasing public investment and health care spending.

The Liberal platform actually calls for Health care cuts to balance by 2019 (about 2B if you listen the the federation of nurses)... but they won the "i'm more left-wing" debate thank's to Liberal news outlets like The Star since for some reason running huge deficits for 3 years then introducing massive cuts (which is indicated in their platform) to balance by 2019 is somehow considered Left wing.

Trudeau's considered very good debate performances, favourable media treatment of their platform (without much dissection) and the niqab mess has hurt the NDP. CBC reported the NDP is changing tack and going more now after both Harper and Trudeau and will focus on promoting Mulcair who is still ranked highest is approval for trust and suck in a number of polls

[2952-0-0]

The Liberal platform actually calls for Health care cuts to balance by 2019 (about 2B if you listen the the federation of nurses)... but they won the "i'm more left-wing" debate thank's to Liberal news outlets like The Star since for some reason running huge deficits for 3 years then introducing massive cuts (which is indicated in their platform) to balance by 2019 is somehow considered Left wing.

Trudeau's considered very good debate performances, favourable media treatment of their platform (without much dissection) and the niqab mess has hurt the NDP. CBC reported the NDP is changing tack and going more now after both Harper and Trudeau and will focus on promoting Mulcair who is still ranked highest is approval for trust and suck in a number of polls

In general the NDP campaign has been complacent and uninspiring. It's the type of campaign best suited when they're in government and with a strong lead in the polls, but definitely not this one.

If the NDP starts attacking both Steve and Justin it will smack of desperation. And the "ABC" group will see the headlines and vote accordingly.

It will be interesting if Con gets 35%, Lib gets 38%, and NDP gets 23%. Presumably, Mulcair resigns when leftists blame his shift to the centre for the disappointing performance. Trudeau is invited to form government. I wouldn't put it past the Liberals to entice a few NDP defections to gain themselves a majority while demoralizing the NDP.

[Хahar 🤔]

The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

What a bizarre non-sequitur.

[politicus]

The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

What a bizarre non-sequitur.

Well, maybe the construction "hidden non-entity" doesn't work in English since you can not hide something that doesn't exist, but the point should be clear. There is nothing bizarre about it. You do not see a person in a niqab as a person - she is hidden and has no identity to the outside world, you then have a ceremony which is about confirming her identity as a citizen in her new country. Attending this ceremony hidden under a veil is an absurd contradiction and should not be allowed.

[King of Kensington]

Is this a piece for the Beaverton?

http://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/5936534-alex-johnstone-has-earned-my-vote/

[King of Kensington]

That, and the NDP gambit of moving to the centre to become more electable backfired when the Liberals made left-ish promises about increasing public investment and health care spending.

The Liberal platform actually calls for Health care cuts to balance by 2019 (about 2B if you listen the the federation of nurses)... but they won the "i'm more left-wing" debate thank's to Liberal news outlets like The Star since for some reason running huge deficits for 3 years then introducing massive cuts (which is indicated in their platform) to balance by 2019 is somehow considered Left wing.

Trudeau's considered very good debate performances, favourable media treatment of their platform (without much dissection) and the niqab mess has hurt the NDP. CBC reported the NDP is changing tack and going more now after both Harper and Trudeau and will focus on promoting Mulcair who is still ranked highest is approval for trust and suck in a number of polls

Even if it's true that the Liberals are "faking left" (which is nothing new) the NDP should never have allowed for the perception to exist.  Running in the mushy middle meant that there was almost nowhere for the Liberals in the space "in between" Harper and Mulcair, so they're trying to outflank them on the left.[/quote]

Meanwhile, the NDP numbers are a joke too.   Mulcair and Thomson have pretty much banished any Keynesian notions from the party.  There's no way they can maintain this commitment to "sound" public finance, hold the line on taxes and bring in a bunch of new social programs.  It's the Third Way mirage.

And Mulcair is completely ridiculous to try to tie the Rae government to the Liberals because he became a Liberal 10 years after.  What he's essentially saying is that Rae was wrong to prioritize fighting the recession over fighting the deficit, and should have imposed more austerity.  This is an attack on the Rae government from the right, not the left.  He also conveniently ignores that the Selinger government has been running deficits for 6 years and they're not going to balance the budget anytime soon in Alberta either.

Federally Jack Layton led the charge for more stimulus in 2008 and as recently as last year Peggy Nash said that Flaherty's focus on balancing the budget was misguided.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/04/use_budget_to_boost_economy_help_consumers_says_ndp.html

But now we're supposed to believe that the NDP are the only party that's "truly" committed to fighting the deficit?

The deficit is just about the least "populist" issue.  It appeals mainly to the Conservative base (who are very concerned about Liberal and NDP deficits but don't mind that their own party preaches the gospel rather than practices it) and to fiscally conservative business types.  

[andrew_c]

Also for the Victoria Grit, are they going to be able to find a replacement? The deadline to nominate candidates has passed.

Nope, she'll remain on the ballot as the Liberal candidate.  It's too late for a replacement candidate, and too late to withdraw from the ballot.