Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

Forum: 34/28/27.

Hébert: Dippers slipping here because of their platform, being 3rd in English Canada with niqabs as a catalyst.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

More Social media dirt being dragged up, this time on a Toronto dipper, disparaging JLaw and Francophones.

[Volrath50]

I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A2bniFJigI0

[Volrath50]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A2bniFJigI0

Heh, I hadn't seen that, but it does appear another Onion thing is well on its way to becoming true. Seeing this happen, I've been keeping my own posts fairly tame for the past decade.

[Hash]

This election seems to be heading in a very dark and depressing direction. Very happy that I'm not voting.

[DavidB.]

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

[politicus]

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

Good question. Logically Liberal minority with outside support, otherwise Canada is weirder than I thought (which they may well be).

[Krago]

The NDP would insist on a coalition with major cabinet posts, and then dare Trudeau to turn them down.

[Volrath50]

I don't think, especially after the experience of the LibDems in the UK, and the fact that Trudeau was absolutely adamant that he would never join a Mulcair-led coalition, that the NDP would want to be the junior partner in a Liberal coalition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

[RogueBeaver]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

[Kevinstat]

The way things are trending, and the Ekos numbers where the head (or someone prominent there) feels like he's "polling a different country," I think it's possible the Conservatives retain their majority, just as the UK Tories won (not retained in that case I know) a surprise majority there earlier this year.

[jaichind]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

[politicus]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

Both parties are substantially stronger and with a much larger base than the LibDems, so this comparison seems a bit of a stretch.

[the506]

The way things are trending, and the Ekos numbers where the head (or someone prominent there) feels like he's "polling a different country," I think it's possible the Conservatives retain their majority, just as the UK Tories won (not retained in that case I know) a surprise majority there earlier this year.

I doubt it...even the Ekos numbers would put the CPC a good 20 seats short by my math, and they've plateaued for a week now.

Looks to me like the Conservatives have hit their ceiling and it's just a matter of whether the ABC vote can coalesce around the Liberals.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, and the Lib demos issue's stemmed from the fact a large portion of their base naively considered them "labour but nicer" so they were ruffled from the onset with a coalition with the Tories. Polls during this campaign suggests most liberal and NdP voters consider the other party as an ideal second choice -

[Volrath50]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

Both parties are substantially stronger and with a much larger base than the LibDems, so this comparison seems a bit of a stretch.

Even if they are stronger, the dynamic remains similar, and I think the Liberals would get most of the praise for the government, while the NDP would be stuck defending whatever unpopular policies came out of it.

Furthermore, Trudeau categorically ruled out any coalition unless he was the dominant party, so it doesn't seem like the NDP ought to enter into a coalition if Trudeau ends up on top, if he won't return the favor if Mulcair ends up with more seats.

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

[DL]

I would wager that secret talks are already happening between the NDP and Liberals on what to do in the event of a "hung parliament, Tories largest party" outcome.

[DL]

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

True, but you know the outcome of the 1987 election wasn't the end of the world for the NDP in Ontario. They went up 3% in the popular vote and they became the official opposition to the Liberals while the Ontario PCs imploded...setting the stage for the NDP to win the subsequent 1990 Ontario election. Compared to what has happened to other "junior partners" it actually wasn't all that bad an outcome.

[Volrath50]

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

True, but you know the outcome of the 1987 election wasn't the end of the world for the NDP in Ontario. They went up 3% in the popular vote and they became the official opposition to the Liberals while the Ontario PCs imploded...setting the stage for the NDP to win the subsequent 1990 Ontario election. Compared to what has happened to other "junior partners" it actually wasn't all that bad an outcome.

Actually, thinking about it, a pact similar to 1985 might be better than a coalition for the NDP if it ends up Con-Lib-NDP. They won't have to answer (as much) for whatever unpopular policies/scandals come out of the Trudeau government, and can continue to oppose Trudeau, bash his policies, criticize his hair, etc, while claiming they "got rid of Stephen Harper."

That being said, there is still lots of time left, and I still think Mulcair can make a comeback. It was only two and a half weeks ago that the Conservative campaign seemed moribund, they were in third, and had to bring in Lynton Crosby. (Who I'm guessing is in part behind the Niqab issue, and the decision to revoke citizenship in the middle of the election.)

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid: 34/27/27.

[Volrath50]

Angus-Reid: 34/27/27.

So Nanos is the only one showing the Liberals well ahead of the NDP. Interesting. Nanos usually ends up pretty close to the final result, but IIRC from previous campaigns, his numbers are often a bit different from other pollsters.

Also, Mulcair today announced he'll eliminate interest on student loans. This looks like it might be the start of a push back against "boring, safe" Mulcair, with some more energetic policies.

[136or142]

I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

Well, there goes your viability as a candidate.

[Volrath50]

I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

Well, there goes your viability as a candidate.

Heh, I should hope something isn't taken that much out of context, but you never know.