Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233017 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #900 on: October 01, 2015, 02:07:00 PM »

Interview with one of the niqab-wearing women in question.

Poilievre declines to rule out a future ban on face covering in the public service.

Another NDP candidate makes the news.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #901 on: October 01, 2015, 02:14:06 PM »

Why do Canadian politicians get in so much trouble for social media posts? That basically never happens here (unless they're sending nudes on Twitter or something). Are Canadian politicians significantly younger than American ones or something?
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politicus
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« Reply #902 on: October 01, 2015, 02:17:12 PM »

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

Both parties are substantially stronger and with a much larger base than the LibDems, so this comparison seems a bit of a stretch.

Even if they are stronger, the dynamic remains similar, and I think the Liberals would get most of the praise for the government, while the NDP would be stuck defending whatever unpopular policies came out of it.

Furthermore, Trudeau categorically ruled out any coalition unless he was the dominant party, so it doesn't seem like the NDP ought to enter into a coalition if Trudeau ends up on top, if he won't return the favor if Mulcair ends up with more seats.

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

Well, we are talking outside support here (=guaranteeing it won't be toppled and voting for the budget, not agreeing with or voting for everything), not entering a formal coalition. In most countries letting the enemy (= CPC in this case) form a government would be much more electorally dangerous for the party that got blamed for not blocking it (which would be NDP), than providing outside support, not sure why that would be different in Canada.
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Adam T
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« Reply #903 on: October 01, 2015, 02:28:31 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2015, 02:30:09 PM by Adam T »

Why do Canadian politicians get in so much trouble for social media posts? That basically never happens here (unless they're sending nudes on Twitter or something). Are Canadian politicians significantly younger than American ones or something?

Not all the candidates who end up in trouble are young. That said, the U.S does have minimum age requirements in running federally, so that could be a factor.  I believe the minimum age to run for the House of Representatives is only 25, but there are very few who run for that body who are under 30.

There could also be factors regarding the need to raise so much money to be seen as a serious candidate in the U.S. It's possible that the major donors to a candidate will have done a great deal of the vetting that the parties are supposed to do here.  

It also should not be forgotten that nearly all of the candidates here who have gotten into trouble were candidates who didn't have a serious chance to win the riding.  So, many of them got the nomination by acclamation.  In the case of the Liberal candidate in Victoria (which was not to long ago a Liberal riding, but the battle there now is solely between the Greens and the NDP), the nominee there who just stepped down, defeated for the Liberal nomination a likely even more potentially controversial candidate, Adam Stirling, who had been an, I believe, somewhat provocative radio talk show host for a number of years.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #904 on: October 01, 2015, 02:45:21 PM »

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?
Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #905 on: October 01, 2015, 03:06:02 PM »

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?
Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.
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Adam T
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« Reply #906 on: October 01, 2015, 03:25:32 PM »

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?
Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.

Thoughtful Cynic's point wasn't that Mulcair would resign for losing the election, or even that he would want to resign, it's that he effectively would be pushed out by the NDP's left wing.  It's hard to argue with that at this point.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #907 on: October 01, 2015, 03:34:49 PM »

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?
Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.

Thoughtful Cynic's point wasn't that Mulcair would resign for losing the election, or even that he would want to resign, it's that he effectively would be pushed out by the NDP's left wing.  It's hard to argue with that at this point.

I suppose I could see that, but party leaders are so powerful in Canada, I wonder how much power they would have to do that, if Mulcair wants to stay, especially as I don't think there are any really obvious, really strong candidates to replace him with. I don't think any of the 2012 leadership candidates would be doing any better than Mulcair.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #908 on: October 01, 2015, 03:38:07 PM »

Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?
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Adam T
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« Reply #909 on: October 01, 2015, 03:44:41 PM »

Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #910 on: October 01, 2015, 03:54:56 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2015, 04:19:59 PM by Volrath50 »

Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.

McLaughlin also led the party from its best showing to its worst and lost over 3/4 of the party's votes and seats. Mulcair, barring a complete collapse in the next 2.5 weeks, looks at worst to still pull in around 100 seats, and a result that's only disappointing compared to the beginning of the campaign, and quite good compared to even just a few months ago.
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Adam T
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« Reply #911 on: October 01, 2015, 04:03:47 PM »

Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.

McLaghlin also led the party from its best showing to its worst and lost over 3/4 of the party's votes and seats. Mulcair, barring a complete collapse in the next 2.5 weeks, looks at worst to still pull in around 100 seats, and a result that's only disappointing compared to the beginning of the campaign, and quite good compared to even just a few months ago.

McLaughlin wasn't really to blame. She actually ran a pretty good campaign.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #912 on: October 01, 2015, 04:10:54 PM »


I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.
Harper at least gained seats in that election. If this goes on, the NDP may well fall back to high teens outside Quebec. The Liberals *will* repeat the same tactic which won the 2004 federal and 2014 Ontario elections. Tellingly, the same people who ran those two campaigns are also running this campaign.

And, let's face it: the NDP campaign has had no theme other than "we're the default anti-Harper choice, oh and C51".

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At least the Aussie Liberals know they can't be so openly disdainful towards >60% of the electorate that no one outside of their base will consider giving them any preference. That's why they switched leaders three weeks ago.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #913 on: October 01, 2015, 04:14:37 PM »

   I believe the Alternative vote was introduced in Australia in the 1910'a by a liberal government out of fear that Labour would benefit from the Liberals and Country Party (now Nationals I believe) splitting the center to right-wing vote.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #914 on: October 01, 2015, 04:43:58 PM »

Chrétien says the West should support Putin's Syrian intervention.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #915 on: October 01, 2015, 06:04:13 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2015, 06:09:59 PM by DC Al Fine »


I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.
Harper at least gained seats in that election. If this goes on, the NDP may well fall back to high teens outside Quebec. The Liberals *will* repeat the same tactic which won the 2004 federal and 2014 Ontario elections. Tellingly, the same people who ran those two campaigns are also running this campaign.


Precampaign expectations matter of course. McLaughlin managed to lead a few polls and the NDP spent a large chunk of her leadership polling over their 1988 result. Going from that to 9% is a career killer.

By contrast, when Paul Martin became Prime Minister, the combined CA-PC vote share was around 25%. A 30% score is not so bad for Harper in this context.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #916 on: October 01, 2015, 08:09:15 PM »

Ottawa Citizen on Ottawa West-Nepean.

Fantino story reminds me of Layton's massage parlour story.
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« Reply #917 on: October 01, 2015, 09:26:31 PM »

The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

What a bizarre non-sequitur.

Well, maybe the construction "hidden non-entity" doesn't work in English since you can not hide something that doesn't exist, but the point should be clear. There is nothing bizarre about it. You do not see a person in a niqab as a person - she is hidden and has no identity to the outside world, you then have a ceremony which is about confirming her identity as a citizen in her new country. Attending this ceremony hidden under a veil is an absurd contradiction and should not be allowed.

This remains a non sequitur. Unless you can demonstrate a connection between the way a person dresses and their citizenship I'll have to keep reading your bigotry as just that.
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DL
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« Reply #918 on: October 01, 2015, 09:35:27 PM »


Thoughtful Cynic's point wasn't that Mulcair would resign for losing the election, or even that he would want to resign, it's that he effectively would be pushed out by the NDP's left wing.  It's hard to argue with that at this point.

What left wing? There really isn't one in the NDP. Sure at every convention you see half a dozen Trotskyists hogging microphones but the NDP really doesnt have any organized leftwing that is anything like factions of the UK Labour party or the Australian Labor Party. My impression is that most people in the NDP feel that Mulcair has performed well and is still a net asset to the party and particularly if there is a minority government, the job is his for as long as he wants. Also, the reality is that there is no "pretender" waiting in the wings. You never hear any stories about anyone in the NDP plotting against Mulcair or about anyone vying to succeed him.

The so-called "leftwing" of the Ontario NDP had wayyyyy more reason to want to purge Andrea Horwath last year - and she passed her leadership review with almost 80% of the vote.
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adma
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« Reply #919 on: October 01, 2015, 09:59:35 PM »

Personally, I'm even shaky about the NDP holding on to 100 or so seats--it all depends on how Quebec goes, but I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's not even top party there come e-day.  (Not saying that *will* be the case; but, forewarned just in case.)
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exnaderite
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« Reply #920 on: October 01, 2015, 10:03:35 PM »

Tomorrow is the debate on TVA. Sunday evening is Mulcair's appearance at Tout Le Monde En Parle. The next three days are the last chance for him to regain his supremacy over Quebec.
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cinyc
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« Reply #921 on: October 01, 2015, 11:07:30 PM »

It's a very classic thing for Bloc and its provincial counterpart to fall back upon certain dog-whistles. To a certain segment for the Quebec nationalist base, Quebec should be for the Québécois alone.

According to a Leger poll for the Canadian government, 93% of Quebec residents (and 82% of Canadians generally) supported "a requirement that people show their face during Canadian citizenship ceremonies".  With that level of support, why wouldn't the Bloc want to ban the niqab at citizenship ceremonies, especially when their main rivals (NDP and Liberals) have taken a position outside of the Quebec mainstream on the issue?  They're trying to win elections.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #922 on: October 01, 2015, 11:47:06 PM »

Leger will show the Dippers at 28% here in QC. Unfortunately Le Devoir site is down ATM...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #923 on: October 01, 2015, 11:54:27 PM »


The link is useless, it has no numbers but that one.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #924 on: October 01, 2015, 11:58:35 PM »

Yeah, poll's out later today. They say English Canada's a CPC/LPC race, so I assume still competitive in ROC.
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