Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

Curious if this will affect voting patterns among Sephardic Jews - probably not at all, I suppose most of them voted Conservative and will vote Conservative. Are there any data where Canadian Sephardic Jews are polled as a distinct category?

Not that I'm aware of. There's barely any polling of Jews in general, much less their sub groups. The only thing I'm aware of is that the 2011 exit poll that showed Jews voting ~50% Tory.

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

I second Foucaulf's complaint about there not being any link to the poll itself. Not that it's your fault, but it's annoying that I can't check and see if there are any issues with the poll itself. It would also be nice if we had any riding polls of Brampton or Richmond to confirm. There were some Brampton ones done in Jan/14 that had us neck and neck with the Liberals, but who knows what could have happened since then.

[King of Kensington]

Curious if this will affect voting patterns among Sephardic Jews - probably not at all, I suppose most of them voted Conservative and will vote Conservative. Are there any data where Canadian Sephardic Jews are polled as a distinct category?

There's too few of them and there's no enclaves specifically of Sephardic Jews that I know of. 

[King of Kensington]

However this approach to Jewish voters may repel more than it appeals to:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/tories-extreme-stand-a-bid-for-jewish-vote-330506441.html

[2952-0-0]

However this approach to Jewish voters may repel more than it appeals to:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/tories-extreme-stand-a-bid-for-jewish-vote-330506441.html

Yep. There's no other minority group who knows about the dangers of scapegoating unpopular minority groups and creating enemies lists.

[cp]

Nanos daily tracking sees pattern hold - Libs up, NDP down, Tories stagnant.

35.3/31.0/24.3

Notably, Libs are nearly 10 points ahead in Ontario and the Tories are nearly into the teens in BC.

[Phony Moderate]

So this is shaping up to be a repeat of the last Ontario election i.e. the Liberals cleverly convincing enough people that they are the real progressive/leftie choice?

[Marokai Backbeat]

So this is shaping up to be a repeat of the last Ontario election i.e. the Liberals cleverly convincing enough people that they are the real progressive/leftie choice?

With the NDP running a mediocre campaign (and a sympathetic Liberal media) that allowed them to do so, yes.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin's chief strategist, Gerry Butts, pioneered that strategy for McGuinty in 2007. Know your opponent, Dippers.

[DL]

Justin's chief strategist, Gerry Butts, pioneered that strategy for McGuinty in 2007. Know your opponent, Dippers.

I don't recall 2007 that way at all. On the contrary in 2007 it was a role reversal where the Liberals won by appealing to islamophobia and attacking the PCs for wanting to fund madrasahs where Muslim kids would learn to be terrorists (sic.). The liberals didn't bother running to the left in 2007 and quite frankly the Ontario NDP in those days was so marginal with just 8 seats that the liberals just ignored them and made the campaign all about whipping up an "anti-niqab" -like fury against the Tories for wanting to partially fund religious schools for for more than just Catholic schools (something which btw already happens in several other provinces)

[RogueBeaver]

I'm quoting Maclean's Butts profile.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyways, the point is that the Grit strategy was far from unpredictable.

[Holmes]

The NDP had winning positions when it came to issues like the ailing economy, bills C-51 and C-24, and the Senate, I can't believe they allowed the elections issues to shift out of their favor. The NDP will never form government if the Liberals win this election.

[adma]

At this point, I wonder if it's worth speculating on who'd be Mulcair's successor.  (FWIW, I've long thought of Charlie Angus in future-leadership terms.)

[Vega]

So this is shaping up to be a repeat of the last Ontario election i.e. the Liberals cleverly convincing enough people that they are the real progressive/leftie choice?

It's certainly not like the NDP has done anything to counter the notion, they've just advanced it.

[cp]

At this point, I wonder if it's worth speculating on who'd be Mulcair's successor.  (FWIW, I've long thought of Charlie Angus in future-leadership terms.)

*Waaaay* too early for that. There's still two weeks left in the election, which for all its shifting of late is still very close, and there's a good chance that even if the NDP polls underwhelmingly it will still be their second best showing ever. Plus, Mulcair's probably popular/ensconced enough to earn another shot.

[RogueBeaver]

TPP seems likely to be unveiled in a few hours.

[136or142]

At this point, I wonder if it's worth speculating on who'd be Mulcair's successor.  (FWIW, I've long thought of Charlie Angus in future-leadership terms.)

The high profile young members would probably be the front runners.
1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron (If reelected)
4.Megan Leslie

[DL]

Charlie Angus speaks no French so you can forget that idea right now.

We are almost guaranteed to have a minority government and even if the NDP has a disappointing result, Mulcair is still personally an asset and gets high approval numbers. I doubt if there would be any internal pressure against him. It's always possible he might quit just of his own volition, but in a minority situation with a possible second election around the corner, I think any party would be crazy to switch leaders right after spending $26 million defining the current leader to the Canadian public, unless there was an obvious successor who was a super star already a household name waiting in the wings.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

[King of Kensington]

It's always possible he might quit just of his own volition

The ultimate humiliation for Mulcair would be playing second fiddle to JUSTIN.

He may call it quits if he's in third.

The NDP braintrust would prefer a Conservative majority and NDP official opposition to coming third behind the Liberals in a minority parliament.

[King of Kensington]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

1) I can't find the actual poll release for this at all.

2) To whatever extent this is true, the Tories are triaging by making weed an issue again.

I wonder if they have breakdowns for East and South Asian groups - but 14% seems too low to me. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

The NDP can blame nobody but themselves on this. Triangulation is a dumb strategy and it seems left-wing parties will only learn it the hard way.

[cp]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

Once again, it is much, much, *much* too early to be making these kinds of predictions!

That said, that particular scenario if it came true would be, in my estimation, rather poetic justice.

[DC Al Fine]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

I'd suggest two possibilities:

1) The Tories are trying to use it as a wedge to win over ethnic minorities (Optimistic answer)

2) The Tories feel they are in trouble and are trying to turn out their base (Pessimistic answer)

Either way, they are probably hoping that pro-weed people either don't care enough to change their vote or are so pro-drug that they'd never consider the Tories anyway. This sort of thing can work,  although I'm inclined to think its a bad idea in this case.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

Once again, it is much, much, *much* too early to be making these kinds of predictions!

That said, that particular scenario if it came true would be, in my estimation, rather poetic justice.

I disagree, actually. The anti-Harper sentiment is strong, and if it becomes clear which party the progressives should coalesce behind (and in this case, it's evidently going to be the Liberal Party), the movement of voters, en masse, from one leftist camp to the other could be staggering. I would not be surprised to see the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 40% in a week and a half.