Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

TPP DEAL REACHED.

Grits are dropping in BC and ON.

[adma]

Current Nanos: 35.6% Lib (+ .3%); 31.0% Con (NC), 22.8% NDP (-1.5%!).  (In Quebec, 30.1 NDP, 28.1 Lib, 20.4 Con, 17.1 Bloc.)

Unless there's a quick fix over the next couple of weeks, looks like the NDP's gone into an Iggy tailspin of sorts.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Taking of the TPP, why are Canadians and alllpolitical parties, so attached to this "supply management" policy? It seems very archaic.

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals invented it, NDP are their usual trade selves, and Tories are too incrementalist.

[You kip if you want to...]

Why's the NDP hemorrhaging?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Liberals invented it, NDP are their usual trade selves, and Tories are too incrementalist.

But why is the Canadian public so attached to the success of a small group of coddled dairy farmers?

[Phony Moderate]

Why's the NDP hemorrhaging?

Because they were leading at the beginning of the campaign. Had the Liberals been leading then, the NDP would now be the ones surging. This is Canada, remember.

[136or142]

I'd wager that much of policy implemented by modern government stems from corporate lobbying. The US obviously being one of the most egregious examples. Aside from that, parties and other interest groups also have their own agency. Researchers only come far behind.

Other than the Liberals and the C.D Howe Institute, I don't believe either the Conservatives or the NDP have had their own research institutions for very long.  Even the C.D Howe Institute is more independent than aligned with the Liberals.  It was one of the 'other' types of research groups I was referring to.

The Conservatives have the Preston Manning thing which also isn't officially aligned plus groups like the Fraser Institute, The National Citizens Coalition and the Atlantic thing which also aren't officially aligned.

The NDP and affiliated groups recently started the Broadbent Institute. The only thing that existed on the left nationally before that was the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives which started up as a counterbalance to the Fraser Institute.  Here in B.C there is also Smart Growth B.C, though that may be more of a lobbying outfit.

Most of these groups primarily focus on economic policy and to a lesser extent social welfare policy.  When it comes to things like health, transportation, the environment and probably even foreign policy, I'd say that most research and raw policy ideas still come from universities and officially non partisan (as opposed to non aligned) research institutions and think tanks.

[2952-0-0]

Liberals invented it, NDP are their usual trade selves, and Tories are too incrementalist.

But why is the Canadian public so attached to the success of a small group of coddled dairy farmers?

The agricultural sector in almost all countries wields far greater political power than it "should". See the vast subsidies in the EU and US. Nothing Canadian about if.

[jaichind]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

The shift in the polls last few days seems to be working exactly as what I thought it would.  CPC getting the lead at the expense of NDP turned out to be working mostly in favor of LPC.

[RedPrometheus]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

The shift in the polls last few days seems to be working exactly as what I thought it would.  CPC getting the lead at the expense of NDP turned out to be working mostly in favor of LPC.

I think der LPC is now consolidating the anti-Harper vote, so the NDP might drop even further until election day.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP brain trust would have you believe the breakthrough was because of their brilliant "triangulation" strategy, and not due mostly to the popularity of Jack Layton, the dysfunction of the Liberal Party and a vacuum in Quebec.

One talking point I'm seeing now is basically "if you look closely at the numbers" the NDP is actually the best poised to beat Harper, because the Liberals will just pile up big pluralities in the GTA, while the NDP can win swaths of seats in southwestern Ontario, the Prairies and BC.

This infatuation with "populist Conservatives" should really have run its course by now. 

[2952-0-0]

Nanos Preferred PM: Niqab 31.1 (-0.6), Nice Hair 30.2 (+0.8), Beard 20.7 (-2.0).

[King of Kensington]

Edmonton: 34/26/21 (Liberals ahead of NDP)

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/battleground-edmonton/

[RogueBeaver]

Strange considering the 63% topline, but meh.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

[cp]

So, Libs ahead in Ontario (even the 905!), Cons overperforming in the prairies, and Trudeau passes Mulcair as best replacement to Harper.

Meanwhile, Danny Williams calls a spade and spade and says what we're all thinking

[DC Al Fine]

Recent Forum riding polls in GTA

Brampton Centre
39-32-25

Markham-Stouffville
51-40-6

Mississauga-Malton
44-29-20

Scarborough Centre
43-36-19

Spadina-Fort York
42-37-17

Toronto Centre
42-37-17

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I haven't been paying much attention to the Canadian election so I apologize if I'm wrong. Is the NDP moving to the center while the Liberals moved leftward? To me that seems strange especially since the NDP is a social democrat party. After looking at the recent polls, it seems to me like at least for now that the anti-Harper, anti-Conservative vote is strategically rallying behind Trudeau's Liberals.

If Jack Layton were still alive and leading the party, I wonder if the NDP would be doing better than how they are now.

[Frodo]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

That's quite a comeback for the Conservatives -the way people were going on about the election gave me the impression they were doomed. 

Apparently, they may yet eke out a win. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Some guy on reddit is going through every riding and making a detailed post on them and their history. Pretty interesting and he/she has currently slogged their way through the Atlantic, Quebec and most of Ontario:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/3nl07d/ridingbyriding_overview_and_discussion_part_6d/

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

That's quite a comeback for the Conservatives -the way people were going on about the election gave me the impression they were doomed. 

Apparently, they may yet eke out a win. 

See, I don't really consider it a win unless they pull off a majority. A Conservative minority parliament would not last long.

[andrew_c]

A minority situation is a loss for Conservatives, even if they have the most seats.  Liberals and NDP will gang up on Harper once parliament resumes.

[cp]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

That's quite a comeback for the Conservatives -the way people were going on about the election gave me the impression they were doomed. 

Apparently, they may yet eke out a win. 

Possibly, but this poll ought not be cited as evidence for it. This isn't so much a 'comeback' for the Tories as it is a holding pattern. Ipsos had the Tories at 32 last week (with the Libs at 33) and have never had them lower than 27.

Like virtually every pollster, this one shows the same basic trends: Libs/Cons tied for first, NDP declining.

[Podgy the Bear]

A minority situation is a loss for Conservatives, even if they have the most seats.  Liberals and NDP will gang up on Harper once parliament resumes.

Probably the reason that the NDP is on the decline and the left-center vote looks to be consolidating behind the Liberals to avoid a severely hung Parliament.  The last thing I would want is to have to endure another election so quickly.