Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[2952-0-0]

Stephen Harper personally vetting Syrian refugee applications seems like something his base will love, but everyone else will hate. Unfortunately for him this only pushes the immigrant rich seats which gave him his majority further away.

[rob in cal]

    For all of the discussion about the Conservatives and BQ going to the right on the immigration issue, just how much of this is in fact symbolic only.  In real terms, have either party endorsed Canada changing policy and lowering total amounts of immigrants allowed into Canada? IMHO, that would amount to really going to the right on the issue, not the Niquab issue.

[2952-0-0]

For all their making hay about brown people, the Bloc has gained.precisely zero support. They're still at high teens and will be lucky to have more seats than the Greens.

The Conservatives won't move to restrict immigration. They worked so hard to appeal to immigrant communities which gave them their majority in 2011, but their niqab circus is already risking all of them.

[136or142]

    For all of the discussion about the Conservatives and BQ going to the right on the immigration issue, just how much of this is in fact symbolic only.  In real terms, have either party endorsed Canada changing policy and lowering total amounts of immigrants allowed into Canada? IMHO, that would amount to really going to the right on the issue, not the Niquab issue.

Conservatives have increased the number of immigrants admitted to Canada per year since coming to power.  I don't think they'd change that if reelected.  Bloq likely has no opinion as they can't form government.  I'm sure they'd like to see Quebec be able to restrict the number of immigrants it admits per year, though I don't know that for sure.  Of course, as Quebec is part of Canada restricting where any person in Canada can and can't move to is obviously unconstitutional.

[cp]

Today's polls:

Forum: 35, 31, 26

Nanos: 33.5, 31.6, 24.2

Regions breakdowns in both show basically the same pattern: Libs about 5 points up in Ontario; NDP about 3 points up in Quebec. Forum thinks the Tories are in the mid-twenties in Quebec, though.

[2952-0-0]

Daily Ekos:

Lib 34.1 Con 32.5 NDP 21.1

Ontario: Lib 40 Con 33 NDP 19

Quebec: Lib 28 NDP 25 Con 25

[DC Al Fine]

Mulcair attacks Trudeau in town hall

He attacked him among other things, for supoorting C-51 and not denouncing TPP.

Good move on the NDP's part. Being more progressive than thou can work.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger: 34/30/25 nationally, 28/28/23/20 in QC. Kicker: Grits lead here in MTL, Tories in 418, Bloc in regions.

[MaxQue]

    For all of the discussion about the Conservatives and BQ going to the right on the immigration issue, just how much of this is in fact symbolic only.  In real terms, have either party endorsed Canada changing policy and lowering total amounts of immigrants allowed into Canada? IMHO, that would amount to really going to the right on the issue, not the Niquab issue.

Conservatives have increased the number of immigrants admitted to Canada per year since coming to power.  I don't think they'd change that if reelected.  Bloq likely has no opinion as they can't form government.  I'm sure they'd like to see Quebec be able to restrict the number of immigrants it admits per year, though I don't know that for sure.  Of course, as Quebec is part of Canada restricting where any person in Canada can and can't move to is obviously unconstitutional.

No. Immigration is partly devolved to Quebec and you must get a Selection Certificate to immigrate there. Quebec already selects its immigrants.

[Vosem]

Mainstreet conducted some more polls, this time of the Ottawa region.

Pontiac
28-27-17

Ottawa Centre
42-30-22

Ottawa West-Nepean
47-29-20

Kanata-Carleton
45-43-8

Nepean
42-41-13

Is the NDP fairly safe in Gatineau and Hull, or are Liberal pickups possible in one/both of those seats? These were some of the seats NDP played in in Quebec before the Orange Crush (in Gatineau, they lost in 2008 just 29%-26%, and they received 20% in Hull, even when they were getting 12% province-wide.

Kicker: Grits lead here in MTL, Tories in 418, Bloc in regions.

Could a party other than the NDP come in first in terms of seats in Quebec?

[RogueBeaver]

Unlikely for now.

[DC Al Fine]

The fact that Mainstreet didn't bother polling Gatineau or Hull suggests they are safe NDP.

[Hash]

It would same that there's a fairly strong Liberal wave in suburban Ottawa - if these polls are worth anything. If true, it will be fantastic to see Royal Galipeau defeated.

[2952-0-0]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

I second Foucaulf's complaint about there not being any link to the poll itself. Not that it's your fault, but it's annoying that I can't check and see if there are any issues with the poll itself. It would also be nice if we had any riding polls of Brampton or Richmond to confirm. There were some Brampton ones done in Jan/14 that had us neck and neck with the Liberals, but who knows what could have happened since then.

Here's the detailed data: http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Election_MC_Tables.pdf

Congratulations Steve, you've made your party unelectable among the country's fastest growing demographic for a generation to come.

[Volrath50]

There is actually a way to guarantee Harper’s defeat. Here’s how:

https://medium.com/@kashani/there-is-actually-a-way-to-guarantee-harper-s-defeat-here-s-how-11ca79cec748

Blah, strategic voting always bothers me. I'm voting for a party the party I prefer, regardless of whether certain other parties think they are entitled to my vote by reason of existing. Besides, a large portion of the time strategic voting backfires, and the candidate the "strategic voting" websites endorse end up in third, sometimes actually giving the Conservatives the seat.

[136or142]

    For all of the discussion about the Conservatives and BQ going to the right on the immigration issue, just how much of this is in fact symbolic only.  In real terms, have either party endorsed Canada changing policy and lowering total amounts of immigrants allowed into Canada? IMHO, that would amount to really going to the right on the issue, not the Niquab issue.

Conservatives have increased the number of immigrants admitted to Canada per year since coming to power.  I don't think they'd change that if reelected.  Bloq likely has no opinion as they can't form government.  I'm sure they'd like to see Quebec be able to restrict the number of immigrants it admits per year, though I don't know that for sure.  Of course, as Quebec is part of Canada restricting where any person in Canada can and can't move to is obviously unconstitutional.

No. Immigration is partly devolved to Quebec and you must get a Selection Certificate to immigrate there. Quebec already selects its immigrants.

Thanks. I stand corrected. I assume that is only for immigrants though and not for citizens of Canada.

[MaxQue]

    For all of the discussion about the Conservatives and BQ going to the right on the immigration issue, just how much of this is in fact symbolic only.  In real terms, have either party endorsed Canada changing policy and lowering total amounts of immigrants allowed into Canada? IMHO, that would amount to really going to the right on the issue, not the Niquab issue.

Conservatives have increased the number of immigrants admitted to Canada per year since coming to power.  I don't think they'd change that if reelected.  Bloq likely has no opinion as they can't form government.  I'm sure they'd like to see Quebec be able to restrict the number of immigrants it admits per year, though I don't know that for sure.  Of course, as Quebec is part of Canada restricting where any person in Canada can and can't move to is obviously unconstitutional.

No. Immigration is partly devolved to Quebec and you must get a Selection Certificate to immigrate there. Quebec already selects its immigrants.

Thanks. I stand corrected. I assume that is only for immigrants though and not for citizens of Canada.

Immigrants can live one year in another province to get around that.

[RogueBeaver]

Taber on strategies: accord possible if Tories <165 per NDP. Tories are ready for another campaign in 5-7 months.

Simpson: Tory blitzkrieg focused on T3: Trudeau/Trade/Terror.

[136or142]

Anybody think what happened to the Liberals in Nova Scotia in 1997 could happen to the NDP in Quebec?  In 1997 the Liberals were basically in a three way tie in Nova Scotia's popular vote, they ended up in third in the popular vote receiving 2.4% less of the vote than the first place P.Cs at 30.8-28.4%.  In seats though the NDP won six seats and the P.Cs 5, while the Liberals were shut out as they likely came in second place in nearly every riding.)

I obviously don't think the NDP won't win any seats in Quebec, but I'd say there is a remote but real possibility they could come fourth in seats while winning the most votes.  This is basically because the NDP doesn't seem to be in first in pretty much any region.

The only region the NDP is likely in first place in Quebec is the Outaouais.  

The Liberals are in first place in Montreal, though the NDP may still be in first in Eastern Montreal.

The Conservatives are in first place in Quebec City, parts of the Eastern Townships (or L'Estrie if you prefer) and parts of rural Eastern Quebec north of the Townships.

The B.Q are likely in first place in the other parts of L'Estrie and points north.  The B.Q are likely either in first place or are now likely in a close battle with the NDP in all the other rural parts of Quebec:  Saguenay, Central Quebec, the Laurentides and Northern Quebec (The other parts of Northern Quebec not including Saguenay.)

The only areas I don't know about are the Montreal suburbs (though apparently the Liberals are rising quickly through much of the Montreal region and that probably includes the suburbs) and the city of Laval.

Outside of L'Estrie and points north where most ridings there are likely now a Conservative-B.Q battle (except for Beauce which should be overwhelmingly Conservative and, for all I know maybe Brome-Missisquoi which in recent history has been the most Liberal riding in that region and not that many years prior to that was a stronghold for P.C star M.P Heward Grafftey) I would expect the NDP to come in second in nearly all the ridings they don't win.  So, this is obviously the same situation the Liberals saw in Nova Scotia in 1997, except they narrowly came in third in the popular vote, while I would still expect the NDP to come in first, based on present trends.

I think there is also a possibility that the NDP could bounce back into a fairly solid first place in Quebec between now and election day.

If I were them, I would run ads featuring quotes of all the times Conservative cabinet ministers spoke out against passing laws against the Niqab in public sector workplaces and I would especially  film a commercial using that speech I posted quotes from earlier during the 2005 same sex marriage debate in Parliament where Harper spoke out in favor of minority rights on the issue of religious accommodation and essentially said that Canada should move to accommodate the religious views of immigrants and not the other way around, I can just imagine how badly that would go down in Quebec right now.  I would especially tie that in with reusing the line from the very effective ad the P.Cs ran in the last couple weeks of the 1988 free trade campaign where they went after Liberal leader John Turner personally with the line "The only job John Turner is concerned about is his own."

[Krago]

In Toronto, the NDP should run ads attacking Trudeau's votes in favour of both Bill C-51 and S-7 (Barbaric Practices Act).

"Justin. On human rights, he talks like a Trudeau, but votes like a Harper."

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 33.8/33.7/20.7.

IRG: 35/30/24.

The Star will endorse Justin tomorrow.

[cp]

Wow. That IRG report has some *really* in depth analysis. I'm not sure if it's correct (my superstitious side feels it's being to favourable to the Libs) but it's the most comprehensive analysis I've seen anywhere so far.

What makes you think the Star will endorse tomorrow, and why the Liberals?

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Star editorial. Apart from 1972/4 (when they backed the PCs) , 1979, 2011 (NDP), they've always endorsed the Liberals. Why are they a Liberal house organ? Because the Star's editorial line follows the principles of their legendary founder Joe Atkinson.

[lilTommy]

Wow. That IRG report has some *really* in depth analysis. I'm not sure if it's correct (my superstitious side feels it's being to favourable to the Libs) but it's the most comprehensive analysis I've seen anywhere so far.

What makes you think the Star will endorse tomorrow, and why the Liberals?

The Star tends to be very Liberal friendly, they only endorsed half-heatedly the NDP 2011 because the party was a head of the Liberals, 2006 and 2008 were the Liberals. They only endorsed the NDP one other time in 1979 and the old federal PCs in 1972.

A friend put it this way:
"The The Toronto Star: By far the easiest to predict. The Star's traditionally Liberal-aligned editorial board will enthusiastically and unreservedly endorse the Trudeau Liberals. Its editorial will extoll Trudeau's "optimism" and "youthfulness", and will say that he's "defied his critics" during this campaign. It will also praise his "bold economic strategy", which he embraced at "considerable political risk", and instruct even its less sympathetic readership to vote "strategically" (i.e. Liberal) to "turn the page on the dark years of Stephen Harper".
After a few token words of reservation (which will probably not mention Bill C-51) it will say, with insufferably saccharine earnestness, that "Justin" has "a touch of his father" about him, and that the final days of this campaign have "something of the excitement of that legendary summer in 1968" when the country "also turned an important page in its history".
The Voice of TorStar will offer some token words about "Mr Mulcair's NDP", and praise it for its "principled stand" on the niqab issue. It will then attack the NDP's opposition to the TPP as "old style politics" designed to "play to the base", and will say Thomas Mulcair's criticisms of Justin Trudeau [over C-51 and other quite specific things that won't be mentioned] "diminished his stature". It will praise the NDP for its "effective and admirable" years as Canada's Official Opposition and then reiterate its weird crush on the Trudeau Liberals with a great, flourishing crescendo of florid rhetoric."

[RogueBeaver]

This CBC report on the NDP is weird. On one hand their sources think Linda Duncan might be endangered but also think they have a solid floor here in QC, despite "the fycking niqab."