Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

Could Leslie herself be in danger, considering the Liberals are expected to romp the Atlantic?

Paging DC.

Yes, she's definitely at risk right now. I suspect she'll hold on, but its not a sure thing.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Could Leslie herself be in danger, considering the Liberals are expected to romp the Atlantic?

Paging DC.

Yes, she's definitely at risk right now. I suspect she'll hold on, but its not a sure thing.

Does she have French skills? She'd be an interesting fresh face for the party...

[136or142]

As I've already said these are the 4 young horsepeople of the NDPocalypse.

1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron
4.Megan Leslie

Is Guy Caron likely to be reelected?

If Erin Weir gets elected in Saskatchewan, he could join this group.

[136or142]

Testy interview between B.C's CKNW radio show host John McComb and Stephen Harper.

http://www.cknw.com/2015/10/13/exclusive-one-on-one-with-stephen-harper/

[cp]

Harper gets an important, if dubious, endorsement

[cp]

Harper gets an important, if dubious, endorsement

On the subject of the replacement of leaders post-election (which it is still too early to discuss realistically, imho), it's worth acknowledging that the NDP has a tendency to give its leaders more than one try at an election even if their first attempt is disappointing. The Tories, like the Liberals, have historically been less patient with underperforming leaders, though they also have a tendency for their failed leaders to stick around even after they've been deposed (think Clark post-79, Diefenbaker post-63, Day post-2000).

Personally, I think Mulcair will stick around for at least another election, especially if there's a minority parliament after this one. Harper ought to have enough sense to exit quietly in the event of his defeat, but his ego is a rather large variable in these sort of situations.

[Vosem]

A new riding poll, conducted by Segma Research in the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, provides encouraging news for the NDP -- this riding was one they won by just single-digits over the Bloc in 2011, and was forecasted by 308 as essentially a three-way NDP/Bloc/Con tie:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
33-22-22-20

Also, if Liberals are second place here, they may be doing better than significantly better than expected in Quebec's regions. This poll must also be very discouraging for the Bloc and the Conservatives.

[DL]

My reaction to these names is as follows:

I see Nathan Cullen as an obvious contender. He is very personable, speaks excellent French and performed much better than expected when he ran for the leadership in 2012...he would also be the first ever NDP leader from BC.

Niki Ashton I don't take seriously. She's not a bad low level critic but I'm not that impressed with her and her leadership campaign in 2012 was a bit of a dud.

Guy Caron is a good MP, unfortunately his eyes look like they are popping out of his skull (does he have an iodine deficiency?). I think he is very likely to re-elected barring a total NDP crash in Quebec. He won by a wide margin, is high profile and even got endorsed by the former BQ MP for his riding.

Megan Leslie would be an excellent option as well. Don't know how good her French is.

Erin Weir is a joke. He has no social skills whatsoever and thanks to him winning the NDP nomination in Regina-Lewvan - a riding that should have been a sure win, is now likely a sure loss....the more people he meets, the fewer votes he gets. On top of that I'm quite sure he peaks no French whatsoever.

As I've already said these are the 4 young horsepeople of the NDP apocalypse.

1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron
4.Megan Leslie

Is Guy Caron likely to be reelected?

If Erin Weir gets elected in Saskatchewan, he could join this group.

[136or142]

My reaction to these names is as follows:

I see Nathan Cullen as an obvious contender. He is very personable, speaks excellent French and performed much better than expected when he ran for the leadership in 2012...he would also be the first ever NDP leader from BC.

Niki Ashton I don't take seriously. She's not a bad low level critic but I'm not that impressed with her and her leadership campaign in 2012 was a bit of a dud.

Guy Caron is a good MP, unfortunately his eyes look like they are popping out of his skull (does he have an iodine deficiency?). I think he is very likely to re-elected barring a total NDP crash in Quebec. He won by a wide margin, is high profile and even got endorsed by the former BQ MP for his riding.

Megan Leslie would be an excellent option as well. Don't know how good her French is.

Erin Weir is a joke. He has no social skills whatsoever and thanks to him winning the NDP nomination in Regina-Lewvan - a riding that should have been a sure win, is now likely a sure loss....the more people he meets, the fewer votes he gets. On top of that I'm quite sure he peaks no French whatsoever.

As I've already said these are the 4 young horsepeople of the NDP apocalypse.

1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron
4.Megan Leslie

Is Guy Caron likely to be reelected?

If Erin Weir gets elected in Saskatchewan, he could join this group.

For what it's worth, Tommy Douglas was a B.C M.P during his Federal Leadership.

Also, Guy Caron only won 42-30% in 2011.  Though Chicoutimi isn't a neighboring riding of Caron's, they are both in Northern Quebec, so that could be a good sign for him.

I've always liked Erin Weir whenever he's been on television.

[DC Al Fine]

Leslie's French is nothing to write home about, but its good enough to credibly run for national office AFAIK

[Vosem]

Leslie's French is nothing to write home about, but its good enough to credibly run for national office AFAIK

;

Is it good enough to come in first place in Quebec? That's the question here.

In any case, I really think it is likelier than not that Thomas Mulcair will still be leading the NDP whenever the next general election is, and this is all very, very speculatory, since the NDP sometimes elects rather unlikely leaders (McDonough and Layton were both elected NDP leader after being provincial/municipal politicians who had been defeated in runs for Parliament and Premier/Mayor; the last leader before Mulcair who had won a federal parliamentary seat at more than 1 general election was Ed Broadbent). Again, it is my view that Mulcair will stay on as leader of the NDP as long as he retains his own seat and the NDP comes in first place in Quebec. Neither of those are certainties, but both certainly seem very likely.

[RogueBeaver]

1) Justin Trudeau becomes Prime Minister.

2) Never.

[2952-0-0]

No Nanos today, but Ekos hints that Robert Fife is being truthful.

[DL]

1. Who wins the popular vote is irrelevant, its all about seats. IMHO, unless the Conservatives win over 170 seats, Harper is out and there will be a minority government formed, likely by Trudeau with NDP backing

2. The King-Byng affair in 1925/1926 was a different situation. The Liberals were the incumbent party. They lost their majority and came in second to the Conservatives in seats, BUT the Progressives (somewhat of an antecedent to today's NDP) had the balance of power and they were 100% anti-Tory and were willing to vote confidence in King.  

What if the Conservatives we're able to win the most seats, but the Liberals won a plurality of the popular vote and formed a coalition with the NDP(post-election). Who do you think would be the next Prime Minister?

This pic is an example of what I'm referring to:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eaPZ7TplOGo/VhuIDB7oxUI/AAAAAAAAHSU/7pLuLwvvVQs/w560-h280-c/12%2Boctobre%2B2015.png

Has anything like this ever happened before in another Canadian general election?

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 37/31/24.

EKOS: 35.1/31.1/20.6.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I do not think this has been asked, if the liberals win the most seats (not a majority), do they form a coalition with the NDP or govern by themselves, attempting to gain support from  opposition parties on confidence motions (such as budgets)?

[cp]

That would be their default option, yes. Theoretically they could team up with the NDP on a more longer-term basis with a coalition, but I doubt either party would find that advantageous. The Liberals would not want to share power, the NDP would be (rightly) scared of alienating their base while gaining no credibility for governing (a la, the Lib Dems in the UK)

Meanwhile, Tory candidate claims a Liberal government will mandate brothels ...

[RogueBeaver]

Fife said Tory backbiting has already begun and that he's getting 2004 vibes, when Harper knew he was going to lose and went back to Calgary to sulk.

[DL]

Fife said Tory backbiting has already begun and that he's getting 2004 vibes, when Harper knew he was going to lose and went back to Calgary to sulk.

Hopefully its just to sulk...knowing how Harper's hatred of the Liberal Party verges on being pathological - I suggest someone put him on suicide watch on election night...keep any sharp objects away from him in case if he hurts himself   

[toaster]

Looks like the NDP vote may be efficient, given the low % number.  If they can manage to win the competitive races in the old city of Toronto, southwestern and Northern ontario, and get 5% everywhere else in the province (905, central, rural-east), they may not see the significant blow are expecting.

Also, some polls for some Northern Ontario ridings, still strong for the NDP.

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178

[DC Al Fine]

To elaborate on what Toaster said.

Algoma-Mantoulin-Kapuskasing
45-30-20

Timmins-James Bay
62-21-11

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the NDP vote may be efficient, given the low % number.  If they can manage to win the competitive races in the old city of Toronto, southwestern and Northern ontario, and get 5% everywhere else in the province (905, central, rural-east), they may not see the significant blow are expecting.

Also, some polls for some Northern Ontario ridings, still strong for the NDP.

http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178

Yeah the NDP may be able to take 5 seats in Toronto: Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale.

As for SW Ontario, this region has really shown to be the "fool's gold" for the NDP.  Besides Essex, what else can they pick up there?  The region isn't as "rust belt"-like as many assume.  I don't see the SW Ontario populist strategy yielding many gains.

[Linus Van Pelt]

To elaborate on what Toaster said.

Algoma-Mantoulin-Kapuskasing
45-30-20

Timmins-James Bay
62-21-11

It feels like the NDP is generally overperforming in riding polls a bit, not just these two.

I'm not sure what this means - the riding polls could be junk, for all I know.

[Phony Moderate]

the riding polls could be junk

That would be unusual!

[RogueBeaver]

Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.