Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

Moose Mountain:


Not the Rockies, but not bad by eastern standards.

[DC Al Fine]

And Northern Ontario

Nickel Belt
46-35-14

Nipissing-Tismkaming
47-31-16

Sault Ste. Marie
36-35-23

Sudbury
38-31-27

[Holmes]

Those Soo numbers are disappointing.

I really wish Ontario had stayed close to 33/33/33 because I'd like to see what the seat count would look like and who would win where.

[adma]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

Moose Mountain:


Not the Rockies, but not bad by eastern standards.

The flat-as-a-pancake myth about Sask is full of hooey,  Maybe it's because the first taste of the Prairies travellers from the East get is of the Red River floodplain in Manitoba, and nothing else spectacular comes into view until the Rockies...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC Seat "Projector": 140/110/86/ 1/1

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/

[RogueBeaver]

Postmedia endorses Harper.

 I agree with At Issue tonight, that a major irony in Harper's loss is being done in by his own incrementalism. Not offering anything new beyond more of the same, which isn't enough in a poor economy and strong opposition. But ultimately Harper's numbers have been pretty steady for about 2 years now, so the question was who would replace him. Putting the tax code through a cheese grater... lame, bad policy and beyond its expiration date.

 One thing that struck me when Harper was interviewed by Mansbridge last month was his serenity in saying that while he obviously wanted a final term, he was at peace with whatever the electorate decided. Obvious tell in retrospect.

[cp]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

Moose Mountain:


Not the Rockies, but not bad by eastern standards.

The flat-as-a-pancake myth about Sask is full of hooey,  Maybe it's because the first taste of the Prairies travellers from the East get is of the Red River floodplain in Manitoba, and nothing else spectacular comes into view until the Rockies...

Lorne Elliot had a line about that that went something like: "Saskatchewan isn't flat. There are flat parts. And there are not-so-flat parts. And then there are parts that are so flat they make the flat parts look like the not-so-flat parts"

Postmedia endorses Harper.

 I agree with At Issue tonight, that a major irony in Harper's loss is being done in by his own incrementalism. Not offering anything new beyond more of the same, which isn't enough in a poor economy and strong opposition. But ultimately Harper's numbers have been pretty steady for about 2 years now, so the question was who would replace him. Putting the tax code through a cheese grater... lame, bad policy and beyond its expiration date.

 One thing that struck me when Harper was interviewed by Mansbridge last month was his serenity in saying that while he obviously wanted a final term, he was at peace with whatever the electorate decided. Obvious tell in retrospect.

Funny, I remember seeing that interview and thinking it was an uncharacteristically passive response from someone whose ambition and self-regard was so legendary. I assumed it was an attempt to play up the 'I'm not perfect' line the Tories were spinning at the time, but perhaps it was something deeper. If so, one wonders why Harper couldn't see it coming.

[DC Al Fine]

 I agree with At Issue tonight, that a major irony in Harper's loss is being done in by his own incrementalism. Not offering anything new beyond more of the same, which isn't enough in a poor economy and strong opposition. But ultimately Harper's numbers have been pretty steady for about 2 years now, so the question was who would replace him. Putting the tax code through a cheese grater... lame, bad policy and beyond its expiration date.

Micro credits are really annoying in my profession, but I don't have much confidence that a Liberal government would get rid of them. They were designed to be difficult to repeal as they all have a constituency that would loudly attack their repeal. E.g. 'Why is the government cutting the child sports credit?!?! Don't they know we have an obesity epidemic?!'

I can't see Trudeau spending the necessary political capital to save so little money.

[cp]

No, but he might fold repeal of boutique tax credits into the larger tax plan he laid out (raising for the rich, creating a new bracket at 33%). He also might not take them all out in one shot. He could get rid of half this year, half in the next budget, or something along those lines, in order to lessen the blow.

[lilTommy]

And Northern Ontario

Nickel Belt
46-35-14

Nipissing-Tismkaming
47-31-16

Sault Ste. Marie
36-35-23

Sudbury
38-31-27

No surprises; I'm glad to see the NDP still looking like they might hold Sudbury, I had that one as Liberal leaning toss-up. Still more or less is.
SSM - always seems to buck the North trends, in 2011 the NDP lost the riding to the CPC during the orange crush. Provincially the NDP vote increased in 95.

[Tender Branson]

Harper will not be re-elected ?

[Thomas D]

So if someone just woke up from a 3 week coma, and wants to know why the Conservatives had a solid lead, and now there's talk of a Liberal Majority, what would you tell them?

[DC Al Fine]

So if someone just woke up from a 3 week coma, and wants to know why the Conservatives had a solid lead, and now there's talk of a Liberal Majority, what would you tell them?

1) There was never a solid Tory lead. The best we managed was around 2-3%

2) The NDP pooped the bed by running to the center when progressive voters wanted a shift to the left after Harper. This allowed Trudeau to consolidate the anti-Harper vote somewhat.

The Tories also ran a lackluster campaign and overplayed on the niqab which didn't help them.

[RedPrometheus]

So if someone just woke up from a 3 week coma, and wants to know why the Conservatives had a solid lead, and now there's talk of a Liberal Majority, what would you tell them?

1) There was never a solid Tory lead. The best we managed was around 2-3%

2) The NDP pooped the bed by running to the center when progressive voters wanted a shift to the left after Harper. This allowed Trudeau to consolidate the anti-Harper vote somewhat.

The Tories also ran a lackluster campaign and overplayed on the niqab which didn't help them.

Although I followed the election somewhat I don't get the niqab issue. Why is it so important? Why did it hurt the NDP in Quebec? And why didn't it hurt the LPC as well?

[lilTommy]

So if someone just woke up from a 3 week coma, and wants to know why the Conservatives had a solid lead, and now there's talk of a Liberal Majority, what would you tell them?

1) There was never a solid Tory lead. The best we managed was around 2-3%

2) The NDP pooped the bed by running to the center when progressive voters wanted a shift to the left after Harper. This allowed Trudeau to consolidate the anti-Harper vote somewhat.

The Tories also ran a lackluster campaign and overplayed on the niqab which didn't help them.

Although I followed the election somewhat I don't get the niqab issue. Why is it so important? Why did it hurt the NDP in Quebec? And why didn't it hurt the LPC as well?

The Niqab issue was a play at the CPC base of old, white christians, mostly rural who see "islam" as a threat... the Harper gov't has been less then subtle about that (terror bill and anti-immigration bills as well). BUT this issue plays in Quebec because the regions which are predominantly french and old catholic, this is also seen as a threat to french and their culture. There was a bill proposed by the previous PQ government in Quebec that would do the same thing, banning overt religious symbols in the Public sector. This is popular also among some secularists/progressive since they see the niqab as an oppression on women. SO the NDP were hurt in the Quebec regions for having the principled stance of not attacking someone over their religious beliefs, and hurt in Montreal for not fighting against a symbol of female oppression. lose-lose for the NDP win-win for the Bloq and CPC.
It's a rough issue for Progressives (like me) it is oppressive when forced on women, its a symbol of subservience from my perspective. But I do not believe we can or should be forcing women who chose this to have to remove it for work in the PS or citizenship ceremonies.
It was a bait move to rile people up against someone that is both generally opposed by social conservatives and many social progressives.

[cp]

Two new polls today (so far). Both show a 6 point lead for the Libs, though for Nanos that's down 2 from yesterday's poll. Notably, Forum has the Libs ahead of the Tories 37/33 in the 'Prairies' (MB/SK); other than that the data in each poll is pretty consistent.

Forum

National:37/31/24

ON: 42/34/23
PQ:29/27/22/18
BC:33/33/30

Nanos

National:36.5/30.6/23.5

ON:43.5/33.5/19.9
PQ:31.3/29.8/17.4/16.8
BC:31.4/30.3/27.1

[Vosem]

Mainstreet has released some riding polls for Alberta and British Columbia. There are two sets of figures (one with and one without undecideds), and the figures without undecideds seem to be the more frequently reported on in Canada, so I'll go with those:

Calgary Centre
38-37-19

St. Albert-Edmonton
40-28*-20-7

Lethbridge
56-26-13

Fleetwood-Port Kells
35-35-24

Burnaby North-Seymour
38-27-26

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
37-32-16-15

*Local MP Brent Rathgeber was elected as a Conservative in 2008, and reelected in 2011; however, he left the party in 2013 over governmental lack of transparency and is seeking reelection as an independent.

[DL]

And Northern Ontario

Nickel Belt
46-35-14

Nipissing-Tismkaming
47-31-16

Sault Ste. Marie
36-35-23

Sudbury
38-31-27

No surprises; I'm glad to see the NDP still looking like they might hold Sudbury, I had that one as Liberal leaning toss-up. Still more or less is.
SSM - always seems to buck the North trends, in 2011 the NDP lost the riding to the CPC during the orange crush. Provincially the NDP vote increased in 95.

Today the screaming headline in the Sudbury newspapers is about local Liberal "fixer" Gerry Lougheed being criminally charged over how the Liberals rigged the Sudbury provincial byelection. A final reminder of that scandal which also involved federal politics cannot help the Liberals in Sudbury in the homestretch

[King of Kensington]

Globe endorses Conservatives not Harper

This is a bizarre endorsement (and likely a reflection of the tension between the editorial board and ownership, where a Liberal endorsement was replaced by a Conservative one in the last provincial election). So basically it says: stick with the Conservatives because the Liberals and NDP aren't all that different anyway. And then goes on to say replace Harper with a more moderate leader. But Harper's most likely successor is the more socially conservative Jason Kenney.

[cp]

Can't say I'm surprised. It seems the Globe will bend over backwards to excuse conservative policymakers of any stripe (witness their support for Paul Martin in 2004). I agree that the parsed endorsement is likely a sign that there was a significant disagreement of opinion among the editorial staff, maybe even to the extent of them being overruled by the owners as in Ontario 2014.

[2952-0-0]

What a joke. They would have been better off asking voters to consider the importance of individual issues when making their choice. Even for a newspaper endorsement in the 21st century that seems quaint.

Anyway, Nanos implies a significant narrowing of the gap in Ontario to only 10 points, but the Liberals exceeding the NDP in Quebec. This is consistent with what Ekos showed yesterday. I expected the Gagnier controversy to lead to an NDP spike in Quebec (as it reminds them of sponsorship) and no change in Ontario (since Ontarians put up with cartoonishly corrupt provincial Liberals anyway).

[136or142]

Globe endorses Conservatives not Harper

This is a bizarre endorsement (and likely a reflection of the tension between the editorial board and ownership, where a Liberal endorsement was replaced by a Conservative one in the last provincial election). So basically it says: stick with the Conservatives because the Liberals and NDP aren't all that different anyway. And then goes on to say replace Harper with a more moderate leader. But Harper's most likely successor is the more socially conservative Jason Kenney.

The near universal mainstream media endorsement of the Washington Consensus, including nearly all columnists, trumps their pretend concern for honest and ethical government.

I agree with the above comment though, I don't think there are more than a handful of people left who base their votes on newspaper endorsements.

[King of Kensington]

And this leads to some pretty stupid endorsements.  

Also, what exactly are they calling for?  Unless they get a majority, the Conservatives will be out of office.  And in the unlikely situation in which they do, why would Harper resign and why would that necessitate a change in leadership and strategies?

[2952-0-0]

Does anyone else remember how, in the weekend before the Alberta election in May, the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal made a half-hearted endorsement of the PCs, and then immediately apologized?

[King of Kensington]

Did anyone see the Facebook Q&A with Walmsley?  What a joke.