Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[cp]

I did. I tapped out after Walmsley let slip that it was Trudeau's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy that was the stand-out issue for him. I can just about understand an endorsement of the Tories from the G&M on the grounds of inexperience or trade, but if the only thing that matters is keeping their own pockets well-lined then I can't take them seriously anymore.

[2952-0-0]

Angus Reid says Lib 35, Con 31, NDP 22

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Angus Reid says Lib 35, Con 31, NDP 22

Shy Tory syndrome with those numbers could still potentially eke out a very slim CPC minority, right?

[Holmes]

Probably. But I think a near-tie in the popular vote would still lead to a LPC minority because their support is concentrated in the seat-rich Atlantic and Ontario, whereas the CPC really only has the prairies.

[2952-0-0]

Angus Reid says Lib 35, Con 31, NDP 22

Shy Tory syndrome with those numbers could still potentially eke out a very slim CPC minority, right?

Shy Tory is a myth. There's a shy incumbent effect if the incumbent successfully plants fear in the minds of undecided voters, regardless whether it is left or right. But the window to plant fear is closing fast.

In any case, a slim CPC minority won't last very long.

[cp]

They'd have to be quite shy indeed considering AR's regional sub-samples: down 10 in Ontario, basically tied in BC, far behind in Quebec. It's not in the report but the article said the Libs were ahead in Toronto *and* the 905.

Also, I'm not sure how much the 'shy Tory' effect applies in Canada. In 2000, 2004, and (somewhat less) in 2006 the Tories dropped back a bit from their final poll to election day. I've always thought of it as a British construction.

[Hash]

It's more of a 'shy incumbent' effect if anything.

[DC Al Fine]

Probably. But I think a near-tie in the popular vote would still lead to a LPC minority because their support is concentrated in the seat-rich Atlantic and Ontario, whereas the CPC really only has the prairies.

That's the first time I've heard "seat rich" and Atlantic together

[DC Al Fine]

In any case, a slim CPC minority won't last very long.

Yeah this. It means the difference between Harper quitting on election night and Harper quitting sometime in the next 6 months depending on how the coalition talks go.

At this point, the absolute best case scenario is the Tories finishing first by a small margin, losing a confidence vote and having a general election, and even that's quite unlikely. Most likely we'll be in for a spell on the opposition benches.

[DL]

Let's say hypothetically we end up with 130 Tories, 125 Liberals and 80 NDPers, does anyone seriously think Harper would survive as PM? Both Trudeau and Mulcair have been 100% clear they will not support a Harper minority gov't and the moment he tries to present a Throne Speech he will be voted down pronto...its true that nothing is engraved in stone on what happens next, but the conventional wisdom is that the GG would refuse to allow a second election without first seeing if someone else can command the confidence of the house - for all the "narcissism of small difference" the reality is there is at least a couple of years worth of laws to pass that are things the Liberals and NDP agree on. I suspect that the Liberals could basically just implement most of their program and give the NDP a few face saving concessions and it would be just like Ontariio 1985-1987.

[DC Al Fine]

EKOS Daily poll shows little change. This is interesting though.

[Boston Bread]

I recall the advance polls in the Ontario election having much higher PC numbers than the overall results (35% vs 31%) and slightly lower NDP numbers. The pattern could repeat again.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm also interested in the possibility of the Liberals winning a minority with the NDP as the official opposition, though I know it's unlikely. It would put the NDP in a very weird position; the opposition usually has to effectively draw contrasts, so how much of the Liberal agenda do they support, and how often would the Libs have to moderate to win Conservative support?

Or, on the flip-side, is there any scenario whatsoever where the NDP and Conservative Party would entertain a coalition with each other against the Trudeau Liberals? This is all fantasy now, but I'm at the point where I'd prefer anything over PM Trudeau, so... gotta grasp at straws.

[DC Al Fine]

Or, on the flip-side, is there any scenario whatsoever where the NDP and Conservative Party would entertain a coalition with each other against the Trudeau Liberals? This is all fantasy now, but I'm at the point where I'd prefer anything over PM Trudeau, so... gotta grasp at straws.

I can think of one, but it involves Trudeau seeking a 5th term in 2031

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have one question. Why isn't the unite the left movement as strong as the unite the right movement was. If the left United it would 've been a total blowout for the left

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I have one question. Why isn't the unite the left movement as strong as the unite the right movement was. If the left United it would 've been a total blowout for the left

While the NDP would be more likely to support such a move, both parties have rich histories and powerful members in both parties would do all they could to ensure it would not happen. 

[DavidB.]

What's more, it doesn't seem that the Liberals could be considered entirely part of the "left movement". Most of them are progressive but centrist or center-right when it comes to the economy, and some of them are quite right-wing: a united Lib-NDP front would probably lose a sizable amount of right-wing Libs to the Tories.

[2952-0-0]

I have one question. Why isn't the unite the left movement as strong as the unite the right movement was. If the left United it would 've been a total blowout for the left

If Harper were to win another majority *and* the Liberals didn't improve on their 2011 performance, then the pressure for a Liberal/NDP merger would be immense.

That was actually Harper's ambition: to destroy the Liberals as a big-tent centreish-left party and force a merger with the NDP, calculating that voters would most of the time choose the Conservatives, thus establishing his baby as the new Natural Governing Party.

TBH he would much rather lose to even a far-left NDP than a Liberal Party led by Trudeau.

[DavidB.]

Lol @ the Globe.

"The Conservatives have been a big tent party in the past, and they must be once again. Fiscally prudent, economically liberal and socially progressive"

Sounds like they are looking for the Liberal Party

[DC Al Fine]

Lol @ the Globe.

"The Conservatives have been a big tent party in the past, and they must be once again. Fiscally prudent, economically liberal and socially progressive"

Sounds like they are looking for the Liberal Party

Reminds me of Crabcake's famous list

6) the GOP should become fiscally conservative, but socially liberal (like me lol) if it is to survive

7) the Democrats should become socially liberal, but fiscally conservative (like me lol) if they are to survive.

[2952-0-0]

Conservative volunteers in Brampton Centre thrown under the bus after being caught red handed vandalizing Liberal and NDP signs: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/brampton-signs-vandalism-conservative-1.3275649

[HagridOfTheDeep]

"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."

[136or142]

"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."

"Pompous douchebag" would be a campaign ad against Stevie.

[DC Al Fine]

"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."

The Dion ones were far and away the best of any of Harper's campaigns, especially since they had so many choice clips of Dion saying stuff instead of stuff pulled from a newspaper.

[2952-0-0]

"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."

With all the Obama campaign staffers in the Liberal Party, they will learn to define the new Conservative leader almost immediately after he/she is elected. The new leader will be associated with an unpopular Harper policy (or at least one that will galvanize their own base or alienate a crucial swing demographic), and/or portrayed as out of touch with ordinary families. Just as the 2012 US presidential election became a referendum on Romney, the next federal election would become a referendum about the new leader.