Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Gass3268]

Go Blue Jays?

[adma]

Anyway Outremont is the sort of place where the Liberals could see an outsized gain compared to their gain in the province as a whole. That said, I still think Mulcair holds on fine.

One thing countering that possibility though: Mulcair had a high profile 2011 opponent (ex-MP Martin Cauchon, bidding for his old seat back).

[RogueBeaver]

So? Mulcair had a competitive race in 2008 against a generic Grit. Marois lost to a generic Grit last year.

[Holmes]

I wonder how long it will take Prime Minister Trudeau to get involved in a Senate scandal.

[Poirot]

Regarding Outremont, in 2011 the Liberal vote was very (maybe historic) low in Quebec. Now that a lot of Liberal voters are returning I think it's possible Outremont could go Liberal. It used to be a safe Liberal seat. If Mulcair wns because of leader status and later resigns, I think the Liberals will get a star candidate / potential Cabinet member like Outremont usually has and will win it then.

[VPH]

I wonder how long it will take Prime Minister Trudeau to get involved in a Senate scandal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It may be worth noting that Mulcair won by 6pts when the NDP polled 12% across Quebec (11pts behind the Liberals). No matter what mood the electorate wakes up in tomorrow they will poll rather better than that.

Of course it is true that the Canadian electorate is an odd thing and the part of it that lives in Quebec the oddest part of all, but a lot of the speculation regarding Outremont reads to me like ramping.

[Hash]

As I anticipate tomorrow to be pretty active, a few guidelines to keep in mind here:

This thread will be locked sometime tomorrow, before polls close, and a results thread opened. This thread will likely be reopened a few days after the election to discuss non-results/analysis matters.

Do not post rumours which are iffy, you know to be false or any of that kind of bad stuff.

Let's keep useless partisanship to a minimum. Unless you're adding insight or contributing something, it's really a waste of bandwidth and everyone's time to post silly nonsense. Similarly, refrain from posts consisting solely of ultrapartisan spin, hyperbolic nonsense and so forth.

Play nice.

[MaxQue]

Before someone asks, I won't be here on election night to comment.

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 35.8/31.9/20.4.
Forum: 40/30/20.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

EKOS: 35.8/31.9/20.4.
https://news.vice.com/article/final-election-poll-shows-canadas-liberal-party-could-win-a-majorityForum: 40/30/20.

Here are seat projections I got http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.htmlfor the EKOS POLL
http://

[2952-0-0]

You know you're addicted when you're nervously refreshing the Nanos homepage on a Sunday night.

[2952-0-0]

And here it is:

LIB 39.1 CON 30.5 NDP 19.7

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/article26866499.ece/BINARY/2015-702+Election+Nightly+Ballot+Tracking+Sept+16+to+18.pdf

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

[Volrath50]

Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

Some have. A great many more Canadians aren't really wedded to a particular party and just want to get rid of the Conservatives. They were largely undecided/ambivalent toward whether Trudeau or Mulcair won, they just wanted to replace Harper with a progressive PM. As the campaign wore on, and Trudeau pulled out ahead, they are breaking toward the Liberals as they seem to be the choice to replace the Conservatives.  I personally know a few of these voters.

[2952-0-0]

Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

Yes!! Yes!! Yes!!

In general, the NDP ran a campaign as if they were already in government, running for re-election, and had a wide lead in the polls. They then moved to the centre to try to win a majority. This allowed the Liberals to campaign on their left.

In any case, the polls had shown for years that Liberal and NDP supporters are open to supporting the other party. And this is Canada, where political tribalism is nowhere as deep as in the US or Britain.

Then, Harper's Muslim-bashing caused a sizeable bump in his support by galvanizing his base. Unfortunately for him it also galvanized his opponents into supporting the only party capable of beating him. In the final weeks, the NDP's clearly desperate tactics (like claiming they only need 35 more seats to defeat Harper ) only furthered this stampede.

[Vega]

There doesn't seem to be a site anywhere with all of the redistributed Canadian riding results on one page. As usual there are lots of places where you can look at them one by one which is a bit annoying if you're interested in more than one constituency.

I've put together a spreadsheet with all the redistributed results on one page:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nqs8lrKYeN06aXEV3YAguk9fCaMSLDnrvMh7pcn4KV4/edit#gid=0

Neat, nice to see you come over here. Are you planning on recording any election night coverage?

Also, for everyone else, I'll ask what is the best way to watch the coverage? I assume CBC is the best play for it, so do they have a live-stream?

[Thomas D]

Any chance the Libs look so safe now that some voters may go back to the NDP?

[2952-0-0]

Any chance the Libs look so safe now that some voters may go back to the NDP?

Nope.

Most people won't know about these latest polls. They'll simply know the Liberals have momentum to defeat the Conservatives.

A bigger question is, how many seats do the Conservatives keep, especially in BC outside Vancouver, because the Liberal surge turned many Con/NDP races into Conservative leads.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Are these polls just outlines or are they picking up a possible trend, do you think a liberal Majority might be highly probable now.

[King of Kensington]

It'll be difficult for the Liberals to get a majority without a Chretien-type sweep of Ontario (who faced a divided right and a near-dead NDP).

[2952-0-0]

Shameless self-plug: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_FQSY2OpZE

[RogueBeaver]

BC and Quebec will prevent that.

[2952-0-0]

BC and Quebec will prevent that.

Outside the Maritimes, less than 20 of the seats they can reasonably win are outside the seven largest cities. So, more accurately, the Liberal Party is only the big cities party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shameless self-plug: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_FQSY2OpZE