Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Vega]

The CBC has an interesting article on various constitutional paths after the election that could happen.

[RogueBeaver]

The last time there was uncertainty: 1963, when even though the Liberals were only a few seats short of a majority (Pearson blew YUGE leads '62/'63/'65) Diefenbaker initially refused to concede and hinted he might try and meet the new Parliament. Once the opposition parties confirmed they'd support Pearson, Diefenbaker finally told the GG he'd resign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The last time there was uncertainty: 1963, when even though the Liberals were only a few seats short of a majority (Pearson blew YUGE leads '62/'63/'65) Diefenbaker initially refused to concede and hinted he might try and meet the new Parliament. Once the opposition parties confirmed they'd support Pearson, Diefenbaker finally told the GG he'd resign.

Why was Pearson such an underachiever electorally? In terms of policies, his record in only 5 years is pretty impressive.

[RogueBeaver]

Crap campaigner against a fantastic one in Diefenbaker. I guess you could count '72 for uncertainty but Trudeau would probably have stayed so long as LPC/NDP had a majority against PC/Socred.

[Barnes]

Crap campaigner against a fantastic one in Diefenbaker. I guess you could count '72 for uncertainty but Trudeau would probably have stayed so long as LPC/NDP had a majority against PC/Socred.

In '72 the results looked as if the Tories would be ahead by two seats - the reverse of the actual result of course.  Many Tory MPs (and some Liberals) immediately started talking of Trudeau's resignation, which would have been a massive jumping of the gun in such a closely divided Parliament.

[Gass3268]

Will CSPAN have coverage tomorrow?

[Thomas D]

Will CSPAN have coverage tomorrow?

I think on C-SPAN 2

[Barnes]

Will CSPAN have coverage tomorrow?

I think on C-SPAN 2

I would suggest watching the CBC live-stream directly on their website; that's what I've done for Canadian elections in the past.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What Potential local surprises do you see occurring tomorrow, ie local candidates that win despite the national or regional PV results

Final election  Projections

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/final-projections-for-federal-election.html
http://www.threehundredeight.com/

[136or142]

Crap campaigner against a fantastic one in Diefenbaker. I guess you could count '72 for uncertainty but Trudeau would probably have stayed so long as LPC/NDP had a majority against PC/Socred.

I don't think the NDP would have had any problem working with P.C leader Robert Stanfield had the P.Cs come out on top.

[emcee0]

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html
This is a stimulator that predicts the number of seats based on the polls, It's pretty entertaining to make your own projections if you are a poll junkie like I am.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

Yes!! Yes!! Yes!!

In general, the NDP ran a campaign as if they were already in government, running for re-election, and had a wide lead in the polls. They then moved to the centre to try to win a majority. This allowed the Liberals to campaign on their left.

In any case, the polls had shown for years that Liberal and NDP supporters are open to supporting the other party. And this is Canada, where political tribalism is nowhere as deep as in the US or Britain.

Then, Harper's Muslim-bashing caused a sizeable bump in his support by galvanizing his base. Unfortunately for him it also galvanized his opponents into supporting the only party capable of beating him. In the final weeks, the NDP's clearly desperate tactics (like claiming they only need 35 more seats to defeat Harper ) only furthered this stampede.

Well, elections with 3 or more parties or candidates of roughly the same strength tend to have strategic  voting causing interesting swings that the 2 party US system isn't going to produce. The 1993 Canadian election is really unbelievable from an American perspective.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Final seat projections from CBC: 146/118/66/7/1

Could we be underestimating Tory support? I mean I think people would be less likely to admit they are voting Conservative and the "shy Tory" factor could be in play here. I still believe there is too much momentum for the Liberals to think anyone other than them will win this thing.

[136or142]

I'm going to miss all the polls.  Can we keep this election going for another six months or so?

[adma]

Final seat projections from CBC: 146/118/66/7/1

Could we be underestimating Tory support? I mean I think people would be less likely to admit they are voting Conservative and the "shy Tory" factor could be in play here. I still believe there is too much momentum for the Liberals to think anyone other than them will win this thing.

At this point, I'd imagine we're more likely overestimating NDP support, given the signals out there of an Iggy-level sub-20% result, potentially...

[136or142]

Liberal cabinet prediction.  Justin Trudeau will have a number of 'star' new M.Ps, but my guess is, outside of B.C and Alberta, he'll tell them all to first get parliamentary experience.  Because, after all, we know what a star Justin Trudeau was in Parliament before becoming Liberal Party leader

There aren't enough M.Ps in a number of provinces to fill their 'quota' but the Liberals have at least 10 former M.Ps running again who are likely to win.

1.Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau
2.Finance, Ralph Goodale (Former Finance Minister)
3.Treasury Board President, Francis Scarpaleggia
4.Industry, John McCallum (Former Cabinet Minister)
5.International Trade, Scott Brison (Former Cabinet Minister)
6.Revenue, Navdeep Bains (former M.P)
7.Labour, Yasmin Ratansi (former M.P)
8.Natural Resources, Anthony Rota (former M.P)
9.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Denis Paradis (former M.P) (Former Minister of State)
10.Fisheries and Oceans, Yvonne Jones
11.Environment, Stephane Dion (Former Environment Minister)
12.Canadian Heritage, Adam Vaughan
13.Transportation and Infrastructure, Joyce Murray
14.Government Services and Public Works, Arnold Chan (If healthy)
15.Human Resources, Chrystia Freeland
16.Social Development, Kent Hehr (Alberta newcomer)
17.Health, Carolyn Bennett (Former Minister of State)
18.Immigration and Citizenship, Alexandra Mendès (Former M.P)
19.Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Jody Wilson-Raybould (B.C newcomer)
20.Intergovernmental Affairs, Pablo Rodriguez, (Former M.P)
21.Veterans Affairs, Kevin Lamoureux
22.Defense, David McGuinty
23.International Development, Kirsty Duncan
24.Foreign Affairs, Marc Garneau
25.Solicitor General and Public Safety, Mark Holland (Former M.P)
26.Attorney General, Sean Casey
27.Government House Leader, Dominic LeBlanc

Chief Government Whip, Judy Foote
Speaker, Geoff Regan

[Volrath50]

I'd be willing to bet that Andrew Leslie would immediately become Minister of National Defense. He's a well regarded retired general, former commander of the army and actually descendant from two prior Liberal Ministers of National Defense. I think it would be hard to find anyone more qualified for the portfolio in all of Canada.

I also doubt that Trudeau would go with that many Chretien/Martin-era retreads. He wants to convince people that he really represents a new Liberal Party, not just a fresh coat of paint on the tired old Chretien/Martin era.

[Boston Bread]

Mulcair losing seat is fairly realistic based on current polling. If the polls are right, Mulcair would need a strong local effect like what saved Trudeau in 2011. Especially since the Liberal surge is likely concentrated in the parts of Montreal that they don't currently hold. However, if the Liberal vote is too concentrated in Montreal, we could see both Mulcair losing his seat while the NDP still wins 40-50 seats in Quebec.

[Kevinstat]

Here's the closing schedule. Ipsos usually does an exit poll.

Thanks for the link!

I may be reading this incorrectly, but with the staggered closing times in different time zones, every poll in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and all but one in Quebec will close at the same moment (9:30 EDT). That's going to make for a hectic few minutes of election-watching!

Navanut and NWT too, and every riding in Quebec I think, as the portions of PQ that are in Atlantic Time don't use daylight savings time, so are effectively in Eastern Time right now (although they included Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine on that list and not Manicouagan, so perhaps the Madeline Iles use Atlantic Daylight Time like nearby PEI, but the portion of that riding on the Gaspé Peninsula (which has a majority of that riding's population) would not finish voting until 9:30 EDT and so any exit polls for that riding would come in at the same time as the rest of the Quebec ridings, even if part of that riding stopped voting an hour earlier).

[Phony Moderate]

The NDP has a tendency to under perform compared to the polls, doesn't it?

[Vega]

Will CSPAN have coverage tomorrow?

I think on C-SPAN 2

I would suggest watching the CBC live-stream directly on their website; that's what I've done for Canadian elections in the past.

Do you have a link to that?

[Torie]

No doubt somebody else linked this piece. The guy sounds like the Nate Silver of Canada.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could we be underestimating Tory support?

Potentially. But the polls may also be overestimating it. And the same goes for the other parties: the Canadian polling industry is hilariously incompetent. When they are right it is only ever by accident.

Edit: we also need to beware - and this isn't a Canadian thing but a general polling industry thing - of companies fudging their figures towards the end to fit the narrative. No one wants to be the odd man out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A point of frustration: why are proper provincial polls almost never done during federal campaigns? While I accept that they can be indicative I don't trust regional breakdowns because I'm not an idiot. Cost really does not work out as an excuse given the the sheer amount of national polls that are churned out. I suspect the issue is 'we've always done it this way', because a common trait of the polling industry globally is that it is lazy and incompetent.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Will CSPAN have coverage tomorrow?

I think on C-SPAN 2

I would suggest watching the CBC live-stream directly on their website; that's what I've done for Canadian elections in the past.

Do you have a link to that?

http://www.cbc.ca (as well as their youtube channel -- https://www.youtube.com/user/cbcnews ) will have a livestream starting at 6:30 eastern.