Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[jaichind]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

Looks like an outlier.  But if not then it looks Cons are heading for a meltdown like 1993 PC.

[jaichind]

Given that for now it seems to be a 3 way tie and it seems the CPC has an advantage in terms of votes-to-seats conversion, it would be funny if the election ends up with CPC coming in a close third in terms of votes but ends up being the largest party in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Given that for now it seems to be a 3 way tie and it seems the CPC has an advantage in terms of votes-to-seats conversion, it would be funny if the election ends up with CPC coming in a close third in terms of votes but ends up being the largest party in terms of seats.

Maybe the stronger likelihood at this rate is for Libs being #1 in votes but #3 in seats (shades of Cleggmania prognostications in the UK in 2010)

The 308.com now cast projection

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Has exactly the scenario I described: CPC last in terms of vote share but first in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2015/09/24/conservatives-take-lead-in-latest-ekos-poll

Might be outlier but latset EKOs poll has CPC at 35.4 LIB 26.3 NDP 24.5.

[jaichind]

Sorry if I am asking a question previously answered in this thread already, but assuming that CPC becomes the largest party bu way short of majority, and with Mulcair and Trudeau  ruling out backing a minority Harper government, I assume the result with be a CPC minority government under new leadership.  I assume neither Mulcair nor Trudeau would want to play second fiddle to the other as they will just end up bleeding support in the next election.

[jaichind]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

[jaichind]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

[jaichind]

There seems to be an unmistakable decline in the relative position of NDP.  This might be bad news for CPC as now there might be more pro-LPC tactical voting, especially in places like ON.   

The shift in the polls last few days seems to be working exactly as what I thought it would.  CPC getting the lead at the expense of NDP turned out to be working mostly in favor of LPC.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Mainstreet poll shows Conservative Party 37%, Liberals 29%, New Democratic Party 24%, Greens 7%, Bloc Quebecois 4%

[jaichind]

CPC 31.5%, NDP 23.1%, LPC 35%, NANOS

[jaichind]

This is 2011 in reverse for NDP

[jaichind]

If these poll numbers persist, it seems that the party that has the largest vote share will be the smallest ever, surprising 2006 when Harper won in the first place.  And there is significant chance that it will be Harper again that will break his on record of lowest vote share of the largest vote share party.

[jaichind]

Interesting how Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets

https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php

Has a lead of almost 6% for LPC over CPC yet still have the two neck-to-neck in terms of seats.   I guess they project LPC is growing its vote share in places where it does not matter. 

[jaichind]

Very informative article on how the vote share to seat translation logic work and how it makes a difference.

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/understanding-projections-i-uniform-vs.html

[jaichind]

Here's the closing schedule. Ipsos usually does an exit poll.

Is Ipsos allowed to release exit polls results from, say, Newfoundland and Atlantic, at 8:30PM when the rest of Canada is voting ?

[jaichind]

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/canadian-politics/forget-the-pollsters-wild-guesses-on-who-will-win-in-each-of-the-338-ridings-tonight


These guys predict tiny cpc win