Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'll play along with the compass, I picked Ontario.

CPC - 72%
LPC - 47%
NDP - 36%
GPC - 30%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It looked like May had a lot of issues with French in the debate. Obviously the debate would be good for Duceppe and it looked kind of bad for Mulcair I'd say it's a tie between Trudeau, Duceppe and Harper

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I haven't been paying much attention to the Canadian election so I apologize if I'm wrong. Is the NDP moving to the center while the Liberals moved leftward? To me that seems strange especially since the NDP is a social democrat party. After looking at the recent polls, it seems to me like at least for now that the anti-Harper, anti-Conservative vote is strategically rallying behind Trudeau's Liberals.

If Jack Layton were still alive and leading the party, I wonder if the NDP would be doing better than how they are now.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Seriously who ever is running the NDP campaign strategy needs to be fired ASAP.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

NDP campaign is being run by Anne McGrath, Layton's former COS.

At the rate of the NDP's decline, I won't be surprised if they are relegated to 3rd party status again, At least according to the polls they are poised to lose 5-6% at the polls, I understand this is a move by the center-left to rally around the strongest Anti-Harper/Conservative party/leader, but the NDP is in a free fall.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Looks like we're maybe heading to a Liberal minority.

On another note: if the Tories become the Official Opposition, would Harper immediately resign or would his ego keep him as leader of the opposition? Who would be in the best position to replace Harper as Tory leader?

Seats predictions based on CBC: 131/122/80/4/1

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Is it reasonable to say the Bloc Quebecois could get 10+ seats or is that pushing it? I'm looking at a graphical summary of campaign period polling and notice a steady rise in support since Sept 24th and was wondering if it was feasible for them to pick up any significant amount of seats? Obviously that would be to the detriment of the NDP.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC "projections" for seat totals (Oct. 13): 136/118/80/3/1

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/

How reliable is CBC and Eric Grenier when it comes to predictions?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC Seat "Projector": 140/110/86/ 1/1

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have one question. Why isn't the unite the left movement as strong as the unite the right movement was. If the left United it would 've been a total blowout for the left

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC poll average: 36.4/31.3/22.5/4.7/4.5 the New Democrats had the biggest shift since it was updated down 1.1%

Seat projection: 140/120/74/3/1

Thinks aren't looking good for the New Democrats are they? They have been falling like a rock since about Sept 17th. Looks like we're heading to a Liberal government with Tory opposition then.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

The question is also whether he'll be re-elected in the first place.

I think he will, I don't think the uniform swing in Quebec will be enough that allows Outremont to go anything other than NDP. It would take a hefty swing to the Liberals for him to fall, after all he won the riding with over 30%, then again, I haven't been following it in depth, so I could be wrong of course.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

If he lost his seat, I'm sure that would change the dynamics. I must admit, for the most part they ran a good campaign until the niqab "issue" came to light and Mulcair didn't really give a good response to it. But I think the main factor that is driving the current dynamics is that the left is really desperate to get rid of Harper so they're siding with the leftist party who was polling highest (aka the Liberals) against Harper. Also the shift in Liberal/NDP positions kind of harmed the NDP IMO.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Just a quick question to the Canadians on here: when you guys count the vote is it similar to how the British do it you know count all the votes and then the returning officer reveals the winner or is it similar to ours here in the states where you have precincts one by one come in for a partial then total count?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Final seat projections from CBC: 146/118/66/7/1

Could we be underestimating Tory support? I mean I think people would be less likely to admit they are voting Conservative and the "shy Tory" factor could be in play here. I still believe there is too much momentum for the Liberals to think anyone other than them will win this thing.