Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Хahar 🤔]

Does anyone think it's possible that the NDP will try to draw from the now-plentiful NDP MLAs in Alberta? I honestly don't know if it's common for a federal party in Canada to nominate provincial legislators. Admittedly, it'd probably be easier if the Alberta NDP Government was older, but my question still stands. (I'm assuming there are no issues with an MLA serving as such while running federally.) There seem to be quite a few seats in Alberta that are ripe for the picking.

This won't happen. It's much, much rarer for politicians to move from provincial to federal politics in Canada than it is to move from state to federal politics in America, and when they do seek election to the House of Commons provincial legislators are expected to resign their provincial seats as soon as the campaign begins. That wouldn't be good just months after the election.

[Хahar 🤔]

Man, Tories are getting obliterated in the Atlantic under your model. Not doing too fine in BC either...

Who is the other in Monitoba? speaker?

No, in Canada the Speaker runs in a normal contested partisan election. In 1984 the sitting Speaker (Lloyd Francis) actually lost his seat in Ottawa West.

[Хahar 🤔]

The indy is Inky Mark, a former Reform/Alliance MP who is running as an independent. Other is polling enough in MB/SK to make him narrowly lead in Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa in a three way race between the CPC and NDP candidates.

Inky Mark has always been somewhat unusual; he defected to the Rebel Alliance back when Stockwell Day was leader, but rather than returning to Reform he instead went and joined the PCs, in whose caucus he remained until the merger. Now apparently he is a member of the Green Party. (!!!)

[Хahar 🤔]

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

It should be noted that this seat is a Bloc notional.

[Хahar 🤔]

Adam, this is the best place on the Internet for discussing elections around the world largely because people refrain from inserting their own political views into discussion of elections. I don't need to be told how to feel about Stephen Harper; I already have my own opinion of Stephen Harper. I come here to read about the election. Your editorializing does not help.

[Хahar 🤔]

Adam, this is the best place on the Internet for discussing elections around the world largely because people refrain from inserting their own political views into discussion of elections. I don't need to be told how to feel about Stephen Harper; I already have my own opinion of Stephen Harper. I come here to read about the election. Your editorializing does not help.

Is it?
Then what about these comments:
1.#StandWithHarper

This is also a bad post.

2.As usual, Nik Nanos is pushing his friend Justin.

We talk of a "pollster" who put the Liberals first long after real pollsters had them in 3rd place.

(Nanos was actually on tv today saying that his polling now finds the Conservatives with slight momentum.)

I'm not clear what the issue here is, since it's obviously relevant to this thread if a particular polling firm is consistently pro-Liberal.
I'm trying to be nice here, so I'll ask that instead of relying on legalistic "gotcha" arguments you try and consider the actual substance of my post. When you refer to Stephen Harper as "Sleazy Stevie", are you convincing anyone who wasn't already on your side? Are you contributing to the discussion? If you're not interested in the answers to those questions I'm going to have to conclude that you're not interested in having an intelligent discussion.

[Хahar 🤔]

It definitely seems like the Tory vote will hold up in suburban Ontario significantly better than elsewhere.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'll never understand the Liberal Party's obsession with propping up the Green Party.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's almost like Canadian voters are prone to wild swings.

[Хahar 🤔]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, knowing what I know about religious immigrant communities, it couldn't possibly hurt.

The Liberal candidate in Calgary Nose Hill has resigned after some nasty tweets from a few years ago resurfaced.

FF

[Хahar 🤔]

Relevant crosstabs:

Atlantic: 39 NDP / 32 Lib / 25 Con / 2 Grn
Quebec: 40 NDP / 23 Lib / 17 BQ / 16 Con / 3 Grn
Ontario: 33 Con / 32 Lib / 31 NDP / 4 Grn
Man./Sask.: 42 Con / 28 NCP / 26 Lib / 3 Grn
Alberta: 47 Con / 27 NDP / 20 Lib / 4 Grn
B.C.: 39 NDP / 28 Lib / 24 Con / 8 Grn

The three parties are basically tied among anglophones but the NDP has a huge lead among francophones.

I wish they would stop combining Manitoba and Saskatchewan; it accomplishes nothing.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

[Хahar 🤔]

The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

What a bizarre non-sequitur.

[Хahar 🤔]

The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

What a bizarre non-sequitur.

Well, maybe the construction "hidden non-entity" doesn't work in English since you can not hide something that doesn't exist, but the point should be clear. There is nothing bizarre about it. You do not see a person in a niqab as a person - she is hidden and has no identity to the outside world, you then have a ceremony which is about confirming her identity as a citizen in her new country. Attending this ceremony hidden under a veil is an absurd contradiction and should not be allowed.

This remains a non sequitur. Unless you can demonstrate a connection between the way a person dresses and their citizenship I'll have to keep reading your bigotry as just that.