Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[MaxQue]

When are the deadlines for candidates to file for election?

Should be September 28th.

[MaxQue]

Mulcair focused on attacking Harper's econ record, implicitly contrasting his background with Trudeau. Duceppe attacking Harper on values/environment. Trudeau speaking in Vancouver at 1 ET.

Nanos: 31/30/29.

As usual, Nik Nanos is pushing his friend Justin.

We talk of a "pollster" who put the Liberals first long after real pollsters had them in 3rd place.

[MaxQue]

(I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

The Tories really, really think they can win Mount Royal because...ISRAEL!

To be fair to them, it's more than Irwin Cotler retires. He is hugely respected in the Anglophone and Jewish communities in Montréal and across party lines. I think than if he had retired in 2011, it would be a Conservative seat right now.

[MaxQue]

It's ironic that although the NDP is touching majority status, only the third place party is fully national in scope.

I wouldn't call the Atlantic, Vancouver and Toronto party "fully national". They are dead in water in most of the Prairies and rural Quebec.

[MaxQue]

In other news, oil prices has started crashing down again and is now under 50$.

Bad for Alberta and for job numbers.

[MaxQue]

Yeah I'm not sure what the CPC path to victory would be.  I think it would require a big increase in the NDP vote which doesn't look likely (don't they have a weaker candidate than last time?)  Also I suspect the current mayor of CSL must have significant support there.  

The Conservative candidate is better, I would say. In 2011, they had the editor of an hateful suburban Anglophone newspaper, now they have the former leader of Equality Party and a former CSL mayor.

I would also suspect they have consequeent support in very wealthy and recluse Town of Mount Royal (I mean, they build a fence around the town to be sure than poor people from near neighbourhoods don't wander in).

EDIT: Nevermind, TMR is terrible for Conservatives. Their votes was coming from the independent towns west of Côte-des-Neiges (which was split between Liberals and NDP).

[MaxQue]

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

[MaxQue]

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

It should be noted that this seat is a Bloc notional.

But none of it is currently represented by a Bloc MP, it got parts of Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, which was won by Bloc, but its MP created the "Strenght in Democracy" party.

[MaxQue]

What is Strength in Democracy? I only first heard of them today when they were mentioned in an article on the BBC I read.

A party created by an MP who lost in the Bloc leadership race and an NDP MP which was likely to be "primaried" out (losing the NDP investiture meeting to someone else).

They were originally for Quebec independence, but they now seems to stand for strong autonomy for all provinces.

[MaxQue]

Jose Nunez-Melo expelled from the NDP for publicly criticizing the nomination process.

Great debate articles.

Behind the Dipper comeback.

Well, they wanted to get rid of him. Anyways, he was grasping at every rule he found since February to not face a contested investiture, so I suspect he knew he had no local support.

[MaxQue]

Conservatives got rid of two candidates in Quebec this morning.

1. Augustin Ali Kitoko, Hochelaga. He had posted pro-NDP links on his Facebook page 10 months ago.

2 Buddy Ford, Repentigny. He got prosecuted in 2011 for having a pot joint on him (he got an unconditionnal absolution).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/06/01-4891001-les-conservateurs-evincent-le-candidat-de-repentigny.php (in French, sorry, found no link in English).

[MaxQue]

We have a better slate than the Grits, which isn't saying much, plus we have realistic targets in certain regions.

In my area, no. Grits have a much better slate than your party.

The president of a CLD (local development center) and the CEO of a non-profit helping local businesses to export vs. a PMO staffer and a candidate yet to be designated.

[MaxQue]

Why is Quebec City such an outlier compared to the rest of Quebec when it comes to supporting the Conservatives? It certainly is not due a residual english speaking population, as the area is overwhelmingly Francophone.

There was an independent libertarian leaning MP from the area known as Andre Arthur. He was a right wing radio host.

It's possible the conservatism espoused by the Ralliment Creditiste stuck around, becoming support for fedral Conservatives, the CAQ, and before, the ADQ.

Wierdly, the home land of the Ralliement Créditiste didn't followed that way. Conservatives failed to get 10% last time in Réal Caouette's former riding (And his family was involved into municipal politics until mid 00's in the main city of that riding).

[MaxQue]

Latest Nanos Poll

(change from previous week)
Cons: 31.2% (+0.3%)
NDP: 30.4% (+0.3%)
Lib: 28.6% (-0.7%)
Green: 5.0% (-0.4%)
BQ: 4.2% (+0.9%)

Atlantic: Lib 48% NDP 32% Cons 18% Green 2%
Quebec: NDP 39% Lib 28% BQ 17% Cons 13% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 37% Lib 29% NDP 26% Green 8%
MB/SK/AB: Cons 56% NDP 19% Lib 18% Green 6%
BC: NDP 41% Lib 29% Cons 26% Green 4%


A few points:
- No two regions have the same order (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
- In BC, the NDP has gained 15 points in the past month, all from the Greens
- Tories love those Ontario numbers

So NDP 33, CPC 31, Lib 26?

It seems we must do +3 to NDP and -3 to Liberals with Nanos until 7 days before the election.

[MaxQue]

Jean-François Larose (the Repentigny MP who left NDP to co-found Strenght in Democracy) becomes the party president and announces he will be running in La-Pointe-de-l'Île against former BQ leader Mario Beaulieu. So, not in the seat where he is the incumbent.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/11/007-forces-democratie-larose-pointe-de-lile-mario-beaulieu-bloc-quebecois.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

[MaxQue]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

Seems we have the final list.

English MacLean debate (already done)
English Globe and Mail debate
Bilingual Munk debate on foreign policy
French TVA debate
French Radio-Canada/consortium debate (Harper finally accepted, as it seems he had no other choice for a debate in French).

[MaxQue]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

Seems we have the final list.

English MacLean debate (already done)
English Globe and Mail debate
Bilingual Munk debate on foreign policy
French TVA debate
French Radio-Canada/consortium debate (Harper finally accepted, as it seems he had no other choice for a debate in French).

1.What about the TVA debate you also mentioned that will be in French?

2.Will Elizabeth May be in any of the remaining debates?

Globe and Mail will be on September 17, with only the 3 main leaders.

Radio-Canada will be on September 24, with May and Duceppe.

Munk Debate will be on September 28. It's not clear whether May will be there, but Trudeau says he won't go if she isn't there. It's on foreign policy, so, she would make all other leaders looks saner.

TVA is the biggest Quebec TV channel. Private, belongs to Peladeau. May won't be in, but Duceppe will. Will be on October 2 (a Friday).

[MaxQue]

Manon Perreault, the MP for Montcalm, expelled from NDP due to being convinced for public mischief (she did a complaint to police about an employee stealing things for the constituency office, when nothing was ever stolen in the first place, in order of being able to fire her), has been recruited by Strenght in Democracy.

They believe her version than she was framed by that former employee.

[MaxQue]

What on earth does Strength in Democracy stand for?

It was for Quebec independence at first, but now seems to run on autonomy for all provinces and a focus on regional developpment and enpowerment and ramblings about "party line voting is bad, local MPs know better what is better locally" and "federal government is imposing things on regions and communities".

They pla on running 25 to 35 candidates, saying they prefer running no candidate to running a candidate not implanted enough in his riding (and then goes running the Repentigny incumbent MP somewhere on Montreal Island...).

[MaxQue]

Jose Nunez-Melo expelled from the NDP for publicly criticizing the nomination process.

Great debate articles.

Behind the Dipper comeback.

Well, they wanted to get rid of him. Anyways, he was grasping at every rule he found since February to not face a contested investiture, so I suspect he knew he had no local support.

He is now a Green.

[MaxQue]

The FSU?

[MaxQue]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

What has the Parti québécois to do with this ?

PQ is an old abbreviation for Quebec (Province of/de Québec). Mainly replaced by QC, but some old people still use PQ.

[MaxQue]

Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

And Megantic-Erable includes Mégantic, which I suppose are very upset towards Conservatives (remember, the downtown exploded due to very weak railroad regulations).

[MaxQue]

Re Megantic-l'Erable: I think the NDP also had one of their more conspicuously paper-ish 2011 candidates there, too--presumably the present contender is a touch more solid.  And really, given the resource-based economic history of Thetford Mines, why *shouldn't* the NDP be competitive here?

There was huge changes there too. Last time, Conservatives were the only party not wanting to ban asbestos sales to foreign countries and international efforts to ban it, which surely helped them.

They dropped that idea recently, as the last effort to save the asbestos industry failed (and, so, there is no more asbestos mining in Thetford at all).

Thetford came to the conclusion it's dead and it won't come back.

[MaxQue]

Since the Conservatives have apparently taken the (in my view quite extreme) position that "Abortions should be allowed in all cases, regardless of the reason", I'm not really surprised that I'm supposedly more conservative than they are.

Abortion is complicated here. The abortion law got stuck down in the late 80's and the Supreme Court gave 1 year to the government to pass a new law. The Progressive-Conservative Party (as it was called back then), which had 75% of seats, never managed to agree on a new law (their then mix of social conservative, liberal Quebec nationalists and socially liberal suburban and urban upper class had quite opposed views on this). So, the law was stucked down and nobody wants a law about it (taking a stand for abortion goes very badly in rural areas and if Conservatives wanted to restrain it, they would suddently go extinct in Toronto and its suburbs, making them lose all hopes of ever getting in government until they change their mind). So, the law right now is whatever restrictions the Royal College of Medecine of Canada decides.

In short, Canada is too socially liberal for a party wanting to restrain abortion to win. So, Conservatives just shut up about it. Same thing for gay marriage. And, even if they took those positions, many of Conservative suburban and Quebec MPs would just vote against their party.