Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[the506]

Right in the mushy middle:

NDP - 57
Liberal - 56
Conservative - 53
Green - 48

[the506]

There's no embargo anymore. One of the *good* effects of the "Fair" Elections Act.

[the506]

Wilfrid Laurier University's Barry Kay (LISPOP) and Bryan Breguet at 2closetocall also do seat projections, though only Breguet and Grenier do individual seats. Breguet has Ashton safe. Grenier has greater prominence in English Canada though.

I'm doing something too, and I have Ashton relatively safe. Keep in mind this is the first time I'm doing something like this, so I'm still learning the ropes, but I hope the numbers make sense.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/projection.php

[the506]

The way things are trending, and the Ekos numbers where the head (or someone prominent there) feels like he's "polling a different country," I think it's possible the Conservatives retain their majority, just as the UK Tories won (not retained in that case I know) a surprise majority there earlier this year.

I doubt it...even the Ekos numbers would put the CPC a good 20 seats short by my math, and they've plateaued for a week now.

Looks to me like the Conservatives have hit their ceiling and it's just a matter of whether the ABC vote can coalesce around the Liberals.

[the506]

That Quebec number seems really out of whack. No way the CPC is tied for first.

[the506]

I'm thinking that too. What else can explain that Mainstreet poll the other day with the Tories at 63% in Alberta but in trouble in Edmonton and Calgary?

(Other than, you know, Mainstreet being Mainstreet...)

[the506]

I think it's too much of an inside Ottawa story for it to have much impact. At least most Canadians know who Mike Duffy is. I had literally never heard the name Dan Gagnier until yesterday.

NDP partisans are sure going hard at it though. Not Tory partisans so much, they probably know the battle's been lost.