Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Holmes]

The NDP will under perform in Northern Ontario

I'll take you up on that bet.

[Holmes]

NDP: 79%
Green: 77%
LPC: 74%
CPC: 31%

[Holmes]

Vancouver Centre has the possibility of being a close race, especially if the NDP is 15-20% ahead in BC on election day. I'll be requesting a special ballot for Timmins-James Bay since I'm living in California now.

[Holmes]

If the election were to be held tomorrow, I would say the NDP wins a minority.

[Holmes]

Nanos is working hard to change the public's perception on the state of the race towards the Liberals. And the more they see that it's Liberals who are ahead in all these polls, they'll strategically change their votes from the NDP to the Libs to dump Harper.

Earl, can we start getting new EKOS polls every 2 days showing the NDP in the lead?

[Holmes]

All Canadian pollsters are garbage. Everybody calm down.

It is known.

[Holmes]

So the NDP is either in first place, second place or third place while taking the EKOS numbers into account. Cool.

[Holmes]

Forum just seems to really over-estimate the leading party's margin, no matter who's ahead.

[Holmes]

Liberals probably re-take Ajax and Conservatives hold on to Calgary Confederation is my guess.

[Holmes]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

Ha. Sad.

[Holmes]

A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

[Holmes]

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.

[Holmes]

The Toronto 'burbs must be conflicted, the poor things.

[Holmes]

Ontario continues to ruin my life even after I've moved to California.

[Holmes]

Well that's Canadian voters for you, I guess. Another Conservative victory would be funny to me here in California.

[Holmes]

The NDP had winning positions when it came to issues like the ailing economy, bills C-51 and C-24, and the Senate, I can't believe they allowed the elections issues to shift out of their favor. The NDP will never form government if the Liberals win this election.

[Holmes]

Graves said he's had the Tories ahead for nearly 3 weeks now. His first daily tracker is out in 3 hours.

He did imply the Liberals have some momentum especially in Ontario.

BTW, pollsters should really display the GTA and rest of Ontario separately. The GTA's population already approaches that of Quebec, and the rest of Ontario is a good deal larger than BC.

Yes and also whoever the GTA chooses will be our next prime minister too.

[Holmes]

Time to pull the plug on Canada I guess.

[Holmes]

That Quebec number seems really out of whack. No way the CPC is tied for first.

something something quebec racism

[Holmes]

Because the NDP has ever won by running on the left. It has always been ridiculed for its leftist positions, and those have been touted as the reasons why they should never take government. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Holmes]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

I still have a hard time comprehending how such a truly insignificant, symbolic issue is taking such centre stage. I suppose an issue like this is less complex and easier to understand, than something like the TPP, so voters are more likely to have a position on, and strong feelings about it, I guess.

To be fair, until we see the actual vote tallies we won't know if this is truly as big an issue as it been made out to be. If it is, this would be one of the stupidest reasons (though obviously not the only reason) ever for any party to lose an election.

Dude, these are Canadian voters we're talking about so...

[Holmes]

Yeah who's running the NDP's campaign? Fire him. I mean, it's already too late to make a difference, but the whole team should be fired. I know the media isn't friendly to the NDP but they shouldn't have let the focus of the election shift from issues that they were winning on to stupid sh**t like niqabs that racists (i.e. 80% of the population) in Quebec and Ontario freak out over. And who's running their social media campaign? This is the NDP, why did they allow the Liberals to have a much larger social media presence? They need to move into the 21st century, hire a team that actually knows how to run a campaign, and hope that Prime Minister Trudeau and his government are full of gaffes. Luckily, the latter will most likely happen.

[Holmes]

If the NDP can get 26% of the vote, then I would hold off writing the obituary. If they're in low 20's or lower, with a Liberal government, RIP.

[Holmes]

Kenora is disappointing. I'm surprised NDGW would've been a pickup if the NDP hadn't sh**t the bed.

[Holmes]

So no one had the NDP winning Papineau when the NDP were at 50% in Quebec, but now that it's closer, people are projecting Outrement going Liberal?

lol