Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Lotuslander]

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.

More important to look at today's Nanos Best PM numbers...

Harper 29.7% (-0.4%)
Mulcair 26.3% (-2.3%)
Trudeau 25.5% (+0.1%)

Mulcair took the biggest hit after Nanos' 1st overnights.

PS. While most Canadians did not view debate, numerous clips were played over and over and over again on the various news networks across Canada. And print media carried considerable coverage as well.

[Lotuslander]

Well, this is certainly bizarre... Frank Graves of Ekos tweeted last night:

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[Lotuslander]

I think Cullen comes off as too contrived and forced, and he'd have a hard time with Quebec.

Totally agree. Have never seen much charisma with Cullen and he also apparently suffers from a likability factor. Would also be the "green" NDP candidate. I even doubt if he would fly in most of BC. Cullen wins his seat with 90%+ of the FN vote and his riding also has the largest FN population in BC.

Personally I had Megan Leslie in mind. But whatever.

[Lotuslander]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

Very little chance of that. i hear Murray Rankin is leading her by a 2 to 1 margin

Funny. I hear the exact opposite!

In fact, the 3 most likely Green seats are all in the Greater Victoria area:

1. SGI - May's seat;
2. Victoria - NDP/Green battle;
3. ESS - NDP/Green battle;

Today Elections Canada released their advanced poll numbers and those 3 seats had the HIGHEST advanced turnout in BC. As a matter of fact, Victoria had the 3RD HIGHEST advanced turnout across Canada!!!

The Conservatives are not even relevant in those ridings (including ESS).

Reminds me of the November 2014 Victoria municipal election when incumbent mayor Dean Fortin was considered a shoe-in for re-election. Had major NDP/organized labour backing. And had one of the highest popular vote shares as mayor in the previous 2011 mayoral election.

BTW, big-city mayors are very tough to dislodge in BC.

Victoria mayor Fortin had several opponents and it was all but a foregone conclusion that it would be a slam dunk for him. But what happened? The Green-backed candidate, Lisa Helps, was assisted by a massive army of Green supporters with their GOTV campaign. And Lisa Helps won the Victoria mayoral chair!!!

Nope. Sorry. The fact that the advance voter turnout in Victoria is the 3rd highest in Canada leads me to believe that the Green political machine is driving voter turnout. BTW, Greens take the riding on election day based upon other more material "on the ground" info. No doubt now.