Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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Makhmud, podzhigay!

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Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

Duncan Graham almost beat a Socred in 1972 in Compton.

Can you tell us any details about that campaign, DC? Because it seems like a very weird result. The NDP got 3% in the riding in 1968, then ran Graham in 1972, got 29%, then ran Graham again in 1974 and fell back to 3%. Why did Graham have the singular good performance?

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More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.

The closest three-way race in Canadian provincial elections (by popular vote) was Nova Scotia 2003, though the PCs won a clear majority of seats.

PC 36.3% Lib 31.5% NDP 31.0%
PC 30 Lib 11 NDP 11

PC-30 Lib-11 NDP-11 is actually the result of the NS 1999 election, where the PCs won the popular vote 39%-30%-30%. The result from 2003 is actually PC-25 NDP-15 Lib-12, so a minority government was won on those numbers.

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At the moment, Eric Grenier is projecting Churchill, the riding covering northern Manitoba, to be a Liberal gain from the NDP, 41-38. The riding has been held by the NDP continuously since 1979, excluding the Liberal wave in 1993 and a split in the NDP vote in 2006 (when the riding also went Liberal). Indeed in 2011, the Liberals came in third to the NDP and Conservatives, 51-26-20. Is this an unreasonable result calculated by universal swing, or is the Manitoba provincial NDP government really so unpopular that the NDP is at risk of losing Churchill?

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Jesus, you guys, stop paying attention to that guy.

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

(Also, I can take your reply to mean that Niki Ashton isn't in much danger?)

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What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

An excellent analogy.

Well, I understand that Grenier's projections are based on universal swing within provinces, and therefore do not account for regional differences within provinces. In a lot of cases I can see why for myself (for instance, in the absence of a star Liberal candidate in Avignon the riding seems likely to at least tilt NDP; he has the Liberal improvement in Quebec numbers, which seems mostly Montreal-based, win them this seat at the other end of the province), but with Churchill, it was unclear to me whether the Liberals actually had a shot or if he was just grossly overdoing the universal swing.

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Because constituency polls of questionable accuracy are fun, Mainstreet Research has released three: in Ajax, Ontario, Conservative incumbent Chris Alexander leads Liberal former MP Mark Holland 33-31; in Spadina--Fort York, Ontario, prominent former NDP MP Olivia Chow leads Liberal incumbent Adam Vaughan 34-30; in Calgary Confederation, Alberta, Liberal candidate Matt Grant leads Conservative former PC MPP Len Webber 33-32.

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Dogwood Initiative is out with some more fun (*dubious) constituency-level polling -- this time from British Columbia!

In Courtenay-Alberni, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 30-25.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, the NDP is far ahead of the Conservatives, 31-16.
In Burnaby-North Seymour, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 28-25.
In Vancouver South, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 29-20.
In North Vancouver, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 33-25.
In South Okanagan-West Kootenay, the NDP leads the Conservatives, 31-24.
In West Vancouver..., the Liberals narrowly lead the Conservatives and NDP in a three-way race, 28-25-18.

Some notes:
- More than 10% separates first from third in every riding but West Vancouver. This suggests that some may be voting tactically.
- Although the Greens have star candidates in North Vancouver and West Vancouver, they are not doing particularly well there, at 9-10%. Their best riding of these 7, far and away, is Esquimalt..., where they are at 15% and within the margin of error for second place.
- There is still plenty of time for someone to break out. There are >20% undecided in every riding but West Vancouver..., which is at 18%.

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The problem with a coalition is that examples from around the world consistently show that the junior partner suffers in a post-coalition election, making it disadvantageous to enter a coalition as the junior partner. Either party might, if there is sufficient public pressure for it to happen (which seems doubtful in Canada, a country without much history of coalitions), but then they'll be trying to bring the government down as quickly as possible. Sure, if the numbers are 115Con-113NDP-109Lib, I doubt the Cons will form government, but I do think a Con minority where the Cons clearly take first place in seats and votes would continue to govern Canada. Probably without Harper, though. The only scenario in which Harper sticks around for the next election is a 1979/1980 scenario where the next election is called so fast there isn't time for the Conservatives to pick a new leader (also a realistic possibility, imho).

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Some more riding polls were conducted by Mainstreet Research, who last week showed a single-digit lead for Trudeau in Papineau. These are in Atlantic Canada, and mostly confirm conventional wisdom:

The Liberals have a strong lead in Avalon, 37-16 over the NDP. Notably, scandal-plagued ex-Liberal incumbent Scott Andrews comes in third at 13%, ahead of the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives were within single digits here four years ago (and actually carried this riding in 2006).

The Conservatives are leading a three-way race in Central Nova, 29Con-22Lib-19NDP. This riding, which is being vacated by former PC party leader, Harperite Cabinet minister, and possible future leadership contender Peter MacKay (who is only 49 years old), is generally considered to be the Conservatives' best shot at holding a seat in Nova Scotia, where they are at risk of being shut out.

The Liberals have a strong lead in Cumberland-Colchester, 35-24 over the Conservatives. This race is a battle of personalities, as the Liberals are running former PC/Conservative/Independent MP Bill Casey, who has (off and on) represented this riding for a total of 17 years, while the Conservatives are running incumbent MP Scott Armstrong, who has held the riding since a 2009 by-election but is receiving his first serious challenge. 

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Some fascinating riding-level polling. A couple of things jump out:
- The Greens are within single digits of the NDP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. If this is correct, it seems to suggest to me (perhaps incorrectly) that the Greens may be leading in Victoria, which has yet to be polled and is their key target this election. Certainly May herself is safe in Saanich.
- Elmwood-Transcona: this riding has been polled before, when only a small NDP lead was found. Considering how unpopular the provincial NDP government is in Manitoba, a Conservative hold here is a plausible (if perhaps not likely) result. Considering the strong NDP heritage of this seat (it was created as Winnipeg-Birds Hill for 1979, and since then has always voted NDP except in 2011 -- in 1993 it was the only NDP seat in Manitoba and anywhere in the country east of Saskatchewan) it would be rather funny if the NDP achieved a plurality and formed its first government without it.
- Guelph: a poll earlier in the year here had the NDP narrowly leading the Liberals. This seems closer to reality for a heartland seat in a province where the Liberals are far above their 2011 numbers.
- London North Centre: considering that the NDP are improving in southwestern Ontario, this result seems plausible. Still, since this is a seat where a narrow (37%-35%) Conservative victory was surprising even in 2011, this would also be a mildly odd seat for the Conservatives to hold in 2015.
- Central Nova: a poll conducted here just recently showed a close three-way race with the Conservatives barely out in front. These guys have the Liberals ahead double-digits. Who is right? Either seems at least plausible in this riding, which shows how much uncertainty there is in certain parts of Canada.

Also, this forum missed three polls in Quebec conducted by Segma Research, in Chicoutimi, Jonquiere, and Lac-Saint-Jean. Strong leads for the NDP were found in Chicoutimi (41-19 over the Liberals) and Jonquiere (37-21 over the Conservatives), while locally popular Conservative incumbent Denis Lebel was found to be narrowly fending off the NDP in Lac-Saint-Jean (35-29). All three results are in line with conventional wisdom.

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The Conservative candidate in Richmond-Arthabaska, Alain Rayes, has been mayor of Victoriaville (about 40% of the riding's population) for the past 6 years, and is apparently quite popular. So this could be a riding where the Conservatives outperform.

Vosem, remember that this polling is sponsored by one of those ABC strategic voting groups, so we ought to take it with an additional grain of salt on top of the grain of salt we take normal riding polls with.

True perhaps, but none of these polls jump out as obviously fabricated the way (for example) the recent poll showing the NDP ahead in Papineau did.

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Mainstreet conducted some more riding polls, this time in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Regina-Lewvan: Conservative 34%, NDP 28%, Liberal 17%
St. Boniface-St. Vital: Liberal 33%, Conservative 28%, NDP 21%
Saskatoon West: NDP 32%, Conservative 26%, Liberal 22%

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Hmm, that's close I suppose. But the PQ wasn't as clearly in the lead at the start of the campaign and their decline was a lot less dramatic than the NDP's has been so far, nor did the ADQ ever take a clear lead the way the Libs have now.

The Liberals are clearly in second place to the Conservatives right now (although they do seem to be rising and catching up).

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Also, Forum Research has conducted some more riding polls in Ontario.

Brampton North
39-34-24

Mississauga Centre
44-35-16

York Centre
40-39-17

Mississauga-Lakeshore
44-41-12

Scarborough Centre
43-36-19

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Mainstreet conducted some more polls, this time of the Ottawa region.

Pontiac
28-27-17

Ottawa Centre
42-30-22

Ottawa West-Nepean
47-29-20

Kanata-Carleton
45-43-8

Nepean
42-41-13

Is the NDP fairly safe in Gatineau and Hull, or are Liberal pickups possible in one/both of those seats? These were some of the seats NDP played in in Quebec before the Orange Crush (in Gatineau, they lost in 2008 just 29%-26%, and they received 20% in Hull, even when they were getting 12% province-wide.

Kicker: Grits lead here in MTL, Tories in 418, Bloc in regions.

Could a party other than the NDP come in first in terms of seats in Quebec?

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Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

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Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

Yes, but there won't be any Quebecers who vote for any B.Q M.P (except maybe 1) not because they support the party, but because they like that person as an M.P.  So, I would expect their vote to be a lot more concentrated this time around.  As I've said before,  most polls are showing them with a lead in Central and Northern Quebec (except for North East Quebec where they seem to be in a battle with the Conservatives.)

Yes, the PC vote became much more concentrated in 1997. It wasn't enough. There are three precedents in Canadian political history relevant to this situation (one of which was the exclusively-Quebecois party that existed prior to the Bloc): Social Credit (in its Western existence, which was wiped out in 1958, came back to Parliament in 1962, but failed to regain relevance and lost all seats in 1968), the Ralliement creditiste (or the Quebec variant of Social Credit, which lost more than half of its support in 1965, experienced a mild comeback in 1968-1972, and then slowly died, losing all seats in 1980), and most famously the Progressive Conservatives (who went from a majority to 2 seats in 1993; came back in 1997; declined mildly in 2000 and "merged" with the Canadian Alliance in 2003, which was essentially a party disbanding).

All three cases show the same pattern:
Election 1) Lose official party status and more than half of support.
Election 2) Rebound, but not all the way to prior levels. OPS may be regained or not.
Election 3) Variable.
Elections 4+) Steady decline into nothingness.

Three is of course no significant sample, but it's worth noting that the 2011/2015 pattern of Bloc support has happened three times before in Canadian history, and it was always followed by an eventual decline into irrelevance. So the precedent is there.

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Basically where the PQ does best provincially. There were not many people interested to lead the Bloc last time so a Bloc without Duceppe... I don't know who would be leader

Yeah, the Bloc really buggered things up with the whole Beaulieu thing. Fortin and Bellavance both had reasonable shots at re-election and would have made decent leaders.

Does the Bloc have any decent candidates? I recognize a few old MPs on their slate but no names really jump out at me.

I don't know how the Bloc caucus will look in the aftermath of this coming election, which will decide a lot, but in the aftermath of the 2011 election, the Bloc had 4 MPs left, all 4 of whom would've made perfectly decent leadership material, and 3 of whom were ambitious enough to seek leadership during the 2011-2015 Parliament. The Bloc rejected all three, electing first a tired if well-meaning has-been who had to step down due to illness, and then a totally random extremist who came out of nowhere. The Bloc's weakness in polling during the past 4 years was entirely self-inflicted, and Duceppe stepped in to save the party from itself. The party needs to learn to refrain from picking the worst available leadership candidate in every election.

Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

Yes, but there won't be any Quebecers who vote for any B.Q M.P (except maybe 1) not because they support the party, but because they like that person as an M.P.  So, I would expect their vote to be a lot more concentrated this time around.  As I've said before,  most polls are showing them with a lead in Central and Northern Quebec (except for North East Quebec where they seem to be in a battle with the Conservatives.)

Yes, the PC vote became much more concentrated in 1997. It wasn't enough. There are three precedents in Canadian political history relevant to this situation (one of which was the exclusively-Quebecois party that existed prior to the Bloc): Social Credit (in its Western existence, which was wiped out in 1958, came back to Parliament in 1962, but failed to regain relevance and lost all seats in 1968), the Ralliement creditiste (or the Quebec variant of Social Credit, which lost more than half of its support in 1965, experienced a mild comeback in 1968-1972, and then slowly died, losing all seats in 1980), and most famously the Progressive Conservatives (who went from a majority to 2 seats in 1993; came back in 1997; declined mildly in 2000 and "merged" with the Canadian Alliance in 2003, which was essentially a party disbanding).

All three cases show the same pattern:
Election 1) Lose official party status and more than half of support.
Election 2) Rebound, but not all the way to prior levels. OPS may be regained or not.
Election 3) Variable.
Elections 4+) Steady decline into nothingness.

Three is of course no significant sample, but it's worth noting that the 2011/2015 pattern of Bloc support has happened three times before in Canadian history, and it was always followed by an eventual decline into irrelevance. So the precedent is there.

In regards to the Progressive Conservatives you left out that they won a by election in Ontario shortly before their leadership race which was won by a person who lied that he wouldn't seek out this 'merger.'

This isn't really relevant, since my post discusses long-term trends and not specific events like by-election victories (by-elections are not usually predictive of the upcoming general election) and leadership elections (in which, for the record, I agree with you that MacKay lied).

My own view is that had Joe Clark remained on as leader until the sponsorship scandal came to light, that the P.Cs under his leadership in the next election would have come close to sweeping Ontario and maybe much of the Atlantic and likely some parts of Quebec as well.

The PCs could not have come close to sweeping Ontario because maybe 1/3 of right-wing voters in the province were loyal CA voters, and PC voters tended to be concentrated in more Liberal areas, like suburbs. They may have gained, but not enough. They also would not be able to break through in Quebec under a western leader in Joe Clark. They may have gained seats in your hypothetical 2004, but they couldn't hit 30 across Canada, and such a party has no long-term future.

So, you leave out that the result that poor decision making by the parties involved played a role in their eventual demise and they were maybe not as inevitable as you seem to be suggesting.  (In the case of Clark, there had been rumors for a number of years following the 1995 referendum that some Federal Quebec Liberals had been engaged in illegal activity, as was more or less eventual brought to light.  He should have found out at what stage those rumors were being investigated before resigning as leader.)

You can answer "poor decision-making" to a lot of things, but that ignores the reasons behind the poor decision-making. Also, are you blaming Joe Clark for not being able to see the future in this post?

In the case of the B.Q, I would point out that they have a reason for existing that those other parties didn't and, therefore their support should not dry up completely, that, of course, of seperatism. 

Eh. Separatism existed before the BQ, too. In 2011, the Bloc failed to win a majority of separatist voters (and I'm unsure if they managed a plurality against the NDP). One issue -- even an issue as monumental as separatism -- is insufficient for the existence of a political party.

Should be remembered that the NDP also experienced a similar electoral pattern to the PC's and Ralliement Créditiste in the 1990's - they went from their best performance in history in 1988 to one of their worst in 1993, losing official party status just like the Tories did. They then rebounded, again like the Tories, in 1997, only to fall back in 2000, narrowly avoiding losing official party status again. Yet, in the end, as we know the NDP revamped itself somewhat and got a new, very popular leader, who was able to exploit the change political climate of the 2000's to eventually take the NDP to the status of Official Opposition. So I wouldn't count out the Bloc - obviously it's a very different party to the federal NDP and only competing in Quebec means that it faces a rather different task to a party competing across the country. Nonetheless, the Bloc has already been able to offset decline (in 2004), and circumstances may emerge in the future in which it is able to return to something like it's old strength.

Your point about the '90s-era NDP is true, and I overlooked it. However, the way the NDP managed to avoid death in that era is by changing its geographical base; essentially reinventing itself as a political party. In 1993, more than half the NDP's seats were in Saskatchewan, and all were west of Ontario. McLaughlin engineered a surge in Atlantic Canada in 1997 (fitting the pattern I laid out), and the party then declined in 2000 (fitting the pattern). Jack Layton totally changed the party's base, moving the party from west to east and from rural ridings into the cities. In 2004, the party had no seats in Saskatchewan and a majority of its seats were in Ontario+the Atlantic; then, in 2011, the party won a majority of its seats in Quebec. While the party has not ideologically shifted much (though it has moved to the right), the identity of the people who vote for it has changed dramatically. The "appeal to some new people because your old people are no longer willing to vote for you" tactic isn't really available to the Bloc (or most political parties, for that matter).

So no one had the NDP winning Papineau when the NDP were at 50% in Quebec, but now that it's closer, people are projecting Outrement going Liberal?

lol

People had Trudeau losing Papineau when the NDP were at 50% in Quebec. Now that the Liberals seem like they're going to sweep Montreal, folks have Mulcair losing Outremont. (For my part, I don't think Trudeau or Mulcair have been in any danger during this campaign).

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Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

The seeming unlikelihood of Mulcair being defeated may make people more likely to vote against him. Ignatieff had a much more prominent challenger in 2008 than 2011. The woman who defeated Duceppe, too, was unknown before she won.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

If the NDP picks a leader who does not speak French, the bottom will fall out in Quebec. Ideally, if Mulcair loses, they would have to replace him with someone also from Quebec. From their present caucus, it could be Francoise Boivin or Alexandre Boulerice, or they could recruit someone from outside Parliament. They just have to be from Quebec. Before Jack Layton, the last non-Quebecois party leader to see his party win Quebec was Lester Pearson, and that was before Quebecois separatism really took hold as a movement. Layton was an Ontarian politician who overcame these obstacles, sure, but he had a unique charisma and appeal, and also grew up in Quebec and was the son of a Quebecois politician. There's no (to my knowledge) NDP politician from English Canada who can appeal to Quebec the way Layton could.

I very much doubt that Mulcair will step down, in any case, unless he either loses his own seat or the NDP does not come in first place in Quebec. The NDP do not have anyone better.

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Harper at risk of losing 12 seats in ON.

It'll be an excellent night for them only to lose 12 Ontario seats. But the fact they expect Julian Fantino to lose means they privately expect a sea of red from Burlington to Ajax (with blue Thornhill and a few orange islands).

Yeah, losing 12 Ontario seats would be better than their 2008 showing. If the Tories overperform to that extent they may well still form a minority government.

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A new riding poll, conducted by Segma Research in the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, provides encouraging news for the NDP -- this riding was one they won by just single-digits over the Bloc in 2011, and was forecasted by 308 as essentially a three-way NDP/Bloc/Con tie:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
33-22-22-20

Also, if Liberals are second place here, they may be doing better than significantly better than expected in Quebec's regions. This poll must also be very discouraging for the Bloc and the Conservatives.

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Leslie's French is nothing to write home about, but its good enough to credibly run for national office AFAIK

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Is it good enough to come in first place in Quebec? That's the question here.

In any case, I really think it is likelier than not that Thomas Mulcair will still be leading the NDP whenever the next general election is, and this is all very, very speculatory, since the NDP sometimes elects rather unlikely leaders (McDonough and Layton were both elected NDP leader after being provincial/municipal politicians who had been defeated in runs for Parliament and Premier/Mayor; the last leader before Mulcair who had won a federal parliamentary seat at more than 1 general election was Ed Broadbent). Again, it is my view that Mulcair will stay on as leader of the NDP as long as he retains his own seat and the NDP comes in first place in Quebec. Neither of those are certainties, but both certainly seem very likely.

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Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

Charest has been around forever. I'm surprised he's not too old at this point.

He began very young, I even wonder if he wasn't the youngest Cabinet minister ever when appointed.

Charest was elected to the federal Parliament at age 26 and appointed to Cabinet at 28. He was leader of the federal PCs at 37, and Premier of Quebec at 45. He's currently 57; younger, for instance, than Thomas Mulcair.

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Environics conducted some polling of the BC Interior and rural Ontario that is...very, very bad for Conservatives.

Cariboo-Prince George
36-30-29

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
34-31-29

North Okanagan-Shuswap
37-33-22

Vancouver-Granville
35-33-28

Peterborough-Kawartha
46-34-17

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
41-40-16

Kitchener Centre
46-28-22

Kanata-Carleton
50-39-8

Nepean
47-40-10

If Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (a riding that was within single-digits for Reform and the CA in 1997 & 2000, and that's been so uncontested in the recent past that the Greens came in second in 2008) is seriously in danger of falling to the Liberals (and I'm not confident that's a poll result I believe)...but if it is the case, the Conservatives are performing worse than 2004 in Ontario.