Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[lilTommy]

This was interesting, not sure if/how we can extrapolate any seats moving hands:
https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains-in-45-liberal-party-two-way-races-says-pollster-lyle/43035

"...the NDP is likely to make gains in 45 seats where the Liberals won with either a strong majority or two-way races in the 2011 election and another 33 close seats between the Conservatives and NDP in the last election, now transposed under new ridings."

"The survey revealed that in the 45 seats across the country that are Liberal two-way races or strong wins based on the last election results, the NDP now had the support of 30.5 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals 35.9 and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals had the support of 39.2 per cent, NDP 21 per cent and the Conservatives 35 per cent. This means the NDP has come up from 18 points behind to 5.5 points behind. The Liberal support has gone down by about four points and the Conservative support has gone down by about 12 points.

In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent."

[lilTommy]

FTQ endorses the NPD. No surprise.

One can argue it is somewhat surprising, more of a "Finally" moment. FTQ endorsed the Bloc in 1993, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011.

[lilTommy]

Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/13/mulcair-seen-as-skilled-as-harper-on-the-economy-poll-shows.html

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/

NDP - 34%
CPC - 28%
LPC - 27%
NDP lead in, surprise, BC, PQ and tied in ON (33% NDP, CPC & LPC 31%)

bump for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP, after Trudeau was seen to have performed better then expected. But really, I think Liberals and Conservatives were playing that up, setting low expectations so that, as long as Justin didn't frak up he'd be seen as the winner... but that closing statement!

At any rate, the NDP leads on who would be best to handle the economy, statistical tie really 30% vs the CPC at 29%, LPC at 26% with the Economic debate still to come. Mulcair just needs to find a better balance, bring out the bear more in the debate.

[lilTommy]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.

I saw this today, the sample size being so small you have to take with a gain of sand... more people live in one building in the riding then were sampled here (they couldn't get more?)

The article makes a big deal about being weighted too much with the under 30... it's the smallest ample group! i think the over 65 are over represented in this riding (mine). What is telling is that Olivia leads in each group, but a 30 point lead... no, I expect it to be much closer 5-10%

Some liberals in my riding have become beyond annoying with their attacks on mulcair and chow, many more personal then anything. 

[lilTommy]

Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

Age	StatsCan	Forum
18 to 34	51%	5%
35 to 44	20%	14%
45 to 54	12%	24%
55 to 64	9%	23%
65 +	9%	34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!

... so forum just took the demographics and reversed them when they wanted to poll? ummm wow this is odd balls. But yes the NDP does tend to poll better with 18-34 but 83% Chow has a great youth ground game... getting them to vote is another matter eh

[lilTommy]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

[lilTommy]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

Outside of Malton, there is no real natural NDP constituency in Mississsauga-Malton, so I don't think the NDP can win it. However, Bampton East, North and Centre do have a lot of Indo-Canadians, which means all three seats could be won.

The NDP now have a beach-head in the old bramalea-gore-malton riding with NDP MPP Jagmeet Singh, who was the 2011 Candidate. So I'd expect the NDP to be gunning for Brampton East and North. Martin Singh (former leadership candidate) is running in Brampton North, Brampton East candidate is Harbaljit Kahlon who is very close to Jagmeet (was his campaign chair) so look to see those two side-by-side.

[lilTommy]

A Quebec Poll from CROP/LaPresse
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/19/01-4893971-sondage-cropla-presse-le-npd-domine-sans-partage.php

NDP - 47% (+11!)
LPC - 20% (-2)
BQ - 16% (-9)
CPC - 13% (-1)

Francophones
NDP - 51%
BQ - 19%
LPC - 13%
CPC - 12%

Quebec City
NDP - 45%
CPC - 23%
LPC - 18%
BQ - 13%

I wish they had a Montreal breakdown, that is where the LPC support is likely concentrated... if the vote is lower or at par with 2011 the NDP should not lose any seats, in fact might pick up 2 (Ahuntsic-Cartierville becomes more retainable and NDG-Westmount becomes more winnable)

[lilTommy]

CROP-QC: 47/20/16/13. NPD leads all regions, BQ could be shut out.

... you just beat me to it!

[lilTommy]

So bringing back that old guy isn't working out?

Not in the least...
But really, the only who's at this point are still voting BQ are die-hard, sovereigntists who put sovereignty above everything else, no?
The BQ and NDP are similarly Social democratic, shared many of the same political positions, but for about the last 2 decades the Bloc was seen as THE voice of Quebec progressives, until 2011. Now, there is no point for the existence of the Bloc except to espouse independence. They can't fall back on the old story line that they are the best defenders of Quebec's interests since the NDP have been doing that job for 4 years rather well... with the added advantage of showing Quebec values can be pan-Canadian. And well the fact that they can form a government were the BQ would never be able to.

[lilTommy]

"Lead Now" has released some riding polls: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

Calgary Centre:
Cons: 44
Lib: 32
NDP: 17
Grn: 7

Edmonton Griesbach
NDP: 48
Cons: 32
Lib: 15
Grn: 5

Port Moody-Coquitlam
NDP: 54
Cons: 27
Lib: 14
Grn: 5

Vancouver Granville
NDP: 36
Cons: 30
Lib: 24
Grn: 10

Elmwood-Transcona
NDP: 39
Cons: 30
Lib: 25
Grn: 6

Fredericton
Lib: 34
Cons: 29
NDP: 26
Grn: 12

Eglinton-Lawrence
Cons: 36
Lib: 35
NDP: 25
Grn: 4

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Lib: 36
Cons: 31
NDP: 28
Grn: 5

Kitchener Centre
NDP: 33
Lib: 31
Cons: 29
Grn: 7

London North Centre
Lib: 34
Cons: 32
NDP: 27
Grn: 6

Willowdale
Lib: 37
Cons: 32
NDP: 26
Grn: 5

Saskatoon-University
NDP: 41
Cons: 34
Lib: 22
Grn: 4

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Lib: 30
NDP: 27
Cons: 23
Grn: 19

NDP - 6
LPC - 4
CPC - 2

I'm surprised by the NDPs leads in the BC Ridings, especially those that were deemed Three-ways fights (Vancouver-Grainville) and more LPC-CPC battles (WVSCSSC - the NDP second?!) General polling in BC is showing a big move to the NDP, its becoming consistent across pollsters

Elmwood-Transcona is stronger for the NDP then I would have though given the NDPs Numbers in the province overall have been week (this is the most likely win for the NDP anyway)

Those ON Numbers can't be good for the CPC, they are at risk of losing their TO gains. It would be nice to see some rural ON riding polling from say SWON and riding level polling from the 905.

[lilTommy]

The NDP at 27% in West Van is a bit of a surprise, considering how wealthy that area is.

The NDP is actually polling bellow their 2011 result in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberals are eating into Tory and NDP support there. I suspect the Liberal numbers will go back down there, but how will they break?

West Van is not as uniformly wealthy as you may think. Its true that the municipality of West Vancouver is very ritsy, but that riding also includes much of the Sunshine Coast and places like Squamish which is strong NDP territory provincially and Whistler which is a crap shoot.

In Elmwood-Transcona - the VAST majority of Liberal voters say they are voting to defeat harper and elect a new government so i strongly suspect that if the Liberal vote drops it will go NDP and not CPC

True, not sure of the new Population but West Van is about 45K so probably about half the riding or so would be in West Van. The Liberals area of strength in 2011 was actually Whistler (LPC-CPC battle) and Bowen Island. The CPC owned West Van itself... the NDP were pretty competitive with the CPC along the Coast, Squamish and Powell River areas (Power River area has been moved out in favour of areas around Pemberton which voted NDP it looks like too)
The numbers seem to indicate the Liberals are either taking more of Whistler or more in West Van (or both). I doubt, since the NDP is also up, that the LPC is taking votes there.

[lilTommy]

Has anyone heard of Vector Research?
https://twitter.com/vectorresearch

They have a Parties Poll posted:
NDP - 35%
CPC - 27%
LPC - 27%
GPC - 6%
BQ - 5%

[lilTommy]

In Nunavut... things got all messed up

Hunter Tootoo, the former NDPer is running for the Liberals;
Jack Anawack, the former Liberal MP (88-93) is running for the NDP.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/jack-anawak-named-as-nunavut-s-ndp-candidate-1.3201188

[lilTommy]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

2015 Political Compass - http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015

- The Canadian Greens actually fall slightly to the right and on the authoritarian side in Canada, a real oddity since most greens tend to be more left wing then the major left-of-centre parties
- The Bloq would be considered the most Centrist of all the parties, almost falling in the dead middle but just slightly Left and Libertarian in their views...
- The Liberals like to campaign and call themselves centrist, but they are really a centre-right party, falling both under Right wing and Authoritarian. They are pretty similar in where they lay to the UK Labour party and the Aussie Labor party... how far have those parties drifted eh
- The NDP is still Social Democratic, progressive albeit less Socialist. They are still Left and Libertarian, best example is just a slightly more centrist Plaid Cymru.

[lilTommy]

A new Insights West poll of B.C. - 41/24/21/12

subsamples (not clear what the margin of error is on these):
Metro Vancouver - 43/25/23/8
Vancouver Island - 39/33/15/15
Rest of BC - 37/26/25/11

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-conservatives-in-canadian-campaign/

Compared to May, I find it hard to believe the Green numbers/Vancouver Island numbers... it's just odd that the NDP has increase its support 6% in the province, yet on Vancouver Island the party has dropped 8%?
Metro Van the NDP is up 11% so that could be part of it... but I think the greens might be over-polling but I could be wrong, this is the place, of anywhere, where the greens can win...

[lilTommy]

New AngusReid:
http://angusreid.org/federal-election-2015-august26/

NDP - 36% (-)
CPC - 32% (-1)
LPC - 23% (-)

Regions though:

BC
NDP - 37%
CPC - 32%
LPC - 22%

AB
NDP - 21%
CPC - 58%
LPC - 13%

SASK
NDP - 31%
CPC - 48%
LPC - 18%

MAN
NDP - 24%
CPC - 44%
LPC - 27%

ON
NDP - 35%
CPC - 33%
LPC - 28%

QUE
NDP - 51%
CPC - 14%
LPC - 17%
BC - 17%

ATL
NDP - 30%
CPC - 25%
LPC - 39%

[lilTommy]

Forum now has the NDP in Majority territory...
http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

NDP - 40%
LPC - 30% - only the second poll I've seen the Liberals in second, CPC in third, and first this high
CPC - 23%

NDP Support:
QUE - 54%
MB/SK - 41% (seems like this is too high, I haven't yet seen a poll with the NDP leading in MB/SK combines, one poll earlier on had the NDP leading in SK)
BC - 39%
ON - 36%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1364/conservatives-tumble-to-third-place/

[lilTommy]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

Ya beat me!

[lilTommy]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

... I'm not sure, maybe. Rural Quebec I can see almost all the CPC and definitely all the BQ riding's switch over NDP. I just can't see Mont-Royal ever going NDP (17% in 2011)... NDG-Westmount yes and even Papineau I could see sneak in NDP... I'm less sure on Bourassa, Saint-Laurent or Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel. 

[lilTommy]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

I can't see the NDP winning Beauce or Mount Royal. Saint-Laurent is probably safe too, as are some of the other Chaudiere-Appalache ridings.

Using re-distribution of the 2011 results thanks to http://www.votetogether.ca/
*Lévis—Lotbinière - NDP and CPC both at 40% (OK 39% and 38%)... first to go NDP
*Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis - CPC 10% ahead, but could be very close with the NDP polling numbers and a strong local candidate; the next to NDP
*Beauce - I think your right here, the CPC had a 21% lead
*Mégantic—L'Érable - Same as Beauce, CPC had a 23% lead

So in short; 4 are likely not to swing NDP even if the NDP poll 50%+... but never say never

[lilTommy]

Ekos now
http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/28/ekos-poll-duffy-awakening-slumbering-electorate/

NDP: 33.6%
CPC: 28.1%
LPC: 26.7%

[lilTommy]

NDP is at 33.6 not 36.6 in the EKOS poll.

Oops, my bad. Corrected, thanks!

[lilTommy]

NDP - 84%
GPC - 75%
LPC - 74%
CPC - 40%

The Liberals so far are just all over the map... They criticize the Tories for running deficit, then plan to run huge deficits? they attack the NDP as being right-wing, austerity pushers yet do it with arguably one of the most right wing finance ministers who is credited with introducing Austerity to Canada in the 90's? Both the Tories and the Liberals attack the NDP for not costing out their plan, yet neither have costed out plans?
Mulcair did move to fast to say he will have a balanced budget, to me this signals a massive change in spending plans... possibly de-funding the Senate if that's even possible? (he's already mentioned it's something the NDP will not spend on) Makes me think the Corp Tax rate will be closer to 17% as well... and I have a feeling there will be more revenue generating tolls. All speculation  

[lilTommy]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/02/voters-may-be-in-store-for-few-big-ticket-promises-in-last-six-weeks-of-campaign_n_8079442.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Something Interesting, no fully costed platforms yet but looking at what as been announced:

CPC - no real new anything, could be produce a $30M surplus year one, no new revenue sources could erode all of that though
NPD - $9M deficit year one, but that is not including the corp tax cut increase or rolling back the subsidies, depending on the increase and roll out, NDP could balance the budget as well
LPC - Deficits till 2019, no new revenue sources (the tax increase on the wealthy is offset by the tax cut to the middle/lower upper class incomes)