Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[King of Kensington]

(I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

The Tories really, really think they can win Mount Royal because...ISRAEL!

[King of Kensington]

Yeah I'm not sure what the CPC path to victory would be.  I think it would require a big increase in the NDP vote which doesn't look likely (don't they have a weaker candidate than last time?)  Also I suspect the current mayor of CSL must have significant support there.  

[King of Kensington]

It definitely seems like the Tory vote will hold up in suburban Ontario significantly better than elsewhere.

Have to agree with that.  The Liberals are too weak to be in a position to pick up a lot of 905 seats, but outside of Brampton/Malton and Oshawa the NDP are not likely to be a factor.  In contrast, the NDP can win most of suburban Vancouver, which lacks a York Region-type dead zone.  

[King of Kensington]

Yeah "most" is not correct.  About half of the suburban Lower Mainland is winnable for the NDP, the other half isn't.  Still a lot higher than the 905 where winning half a dozen seats would be an extraordinary victory for the NDP. 

[King of Kensington]

I can see that.  Clinton was after all, the inspiration for Third Way social democracy.

[King of Kensington]

I agree with this list but I would add Vancouver Granville as another seat that I think is NDP winnable

Most of the voters in Granville, I believe, are in the provincial riding of Vancouver-Fairview which was one of the few NDP pickups in the last provincial election.  So although it looks like more of a "naturally" Liberal riding, the NDP can win it if they are able to capture the small-"l" liberal vote.   Mira Oreck sounds like a good fit for the riding.

[King of Kensington]

But it depends on whether, or by how much, the NDP will or should be the only non-Con game in town in the 905--Justin may be waning, but he's not quite in the "Clegg zone" yet...

There are some seats the Liberals can pick up in 905 - maybe Richmond Hill, Ajax, some seats in Mississauga.  But I think they'll be winning scraps, not swaths.  NDP almost certainly aren't going to win any seats in York or Halton regions even in a majority government.  So it seems highly unlikely that the Conservatives aren't going to be the largest party in 905.  

[King of Kensington]

Mathematically "largest", or dominatingly "largest"?  Or does it matter, really?  In the end, even with more seats, York + Halton aren't *that* dominating a factor in the broader Canadian picture.  It'd be like bellyaching over Bucks or Surrey in terms of the Blair-era UK.

The Bucks/Surrey in '97 analogy is a good one.  The NDP can win a majority without York and Halton and even with just Brampton and Oshawa in the 905.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree that the Liberals prying off a lot of Conservative-held no hope seats would be beneficial from an NDP point of view.  But a 35/35/25 split, say, isn't likely to result in a lot of Liberal seats in Ontario. 

[King of Kensington]

I'd press the ultra-panic button more at 40/40/20.  35/35/25 offers more of an opening for CAQ-style pickups.

I just don't see the Liberals being the third party and the map of 905 looking like Kathleen Wynne's Ontario. 

[King of Kensington]

Sure, a projection model certainly doesn't capture things like incumbency or big swings very well.  For example, claims that the NDP is set to lose Surrey-Newton to the Liberals strike me as ridiculous.

But I don't see the 905 swinging Liberal in particular if they're clearly the third party.

Certainly a 905 "sweep" isn't likely for the Tories.  The NDP is very likely to pick up Oshawa and Brampton East and quite likely to break further into Brampton/Malton.  Half a dozen seats or so for the Liberals seems about right, in some ridings where they were narrowly defeated last time and where the NDP isn't going to be a contender.

Peel Region could very well see all three parties represented.

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet Technologies?

[King of Kensington]

By sheer coincidence, there's a poll that bring together the two main strands of conversation so far (the debate and the vote patterns of the GTA):

Trudeau seen as strongest candidate by Torontonians in 1st debate

An interesting snippet from it:

"Trudeau was especially strong with residents in North York (31 per cent) and Peel Region (27 per cent), while Harper scored well in Etobicoke (27 per cent)."

Here's the Forum poll.  I am almost sure they mixed up their 905 and City of Toronto numbers, so...

City of Toronto:

NDP  37%
Liberals  32%
Conservatives  27%

905 ("GTA"):

Liberals  39%
Conservatives  34%
NDP  23%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/GTA%20Post-Debate%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2007%29%20-%208572%20-%20Forum%20Research.pdf

If the poll isn't total junk, it squares with adma's "905 centrist reasonableness even in the face of a left-right polarization with the center squeezed out" hypothesis.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of 905ers would rather their Conservative be a bluer shade of Paul Martin, IOW.

Of course, but that option is not on offer from either the Liberal or Conservative parties. 

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, there definitely a lot of well to do Ontarians who believe that politics ought to be boring.

Wouldn't defying the trend and sticking to the Liberals like it's Rae vs. Peterson in 1990 out of conviction be more "interesting" than opting for the more "predictable" Conservative option in a left/right polarization?

[King of Kensington]

NDP candidate removed after being exposed by the Conservatives for being "anti-Israel."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/09/morgan-wheeldon-ndp-israel-nova-scotia_n_7962834.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

Harper has made Israel a wedge issue.  Mulcair had stated in the debate that he "defers to nobody" when it comes to defending Israel.

[King of Kensington]

I suspect a lot of that Conservative vote has shifted to the Liberals. I suspect they will go back to supporting the Tories when they realize the Liberals have no chance in most BC ridings.

I agree.  The only ridings I think the Liberals I can see the Liberals picking up are West Van-Sunshine Coast (they're running the former mayor of West Van and it's the kind of riding where strategic voting for the Liberals can work), North Van, Vancouver-Granville and Vancouver South. 

Granville looks like more of a naturally "Liberal" riding but if the provincial NDP vote holds up they can win it (as it consists mostly of Fairview).  Vancouver South could see the Tories slip through. 

These "projections" saying the Liberals will win Surrey-Newton strike me as ridiculous.

[King of Kensington]

Former Saskatchewan Finance Minister Andrew Thomson to run for the NDP in Eglinton-Lawrence.  He'll be lucky to get more than 15% of the vote, but I guess he does serve the purpose of signalling to GTA voters that the NDP is "credible on the economy."

https://www.facebook.com/Thomas.Gallezot/photos/a.519709998

[King of Kensington]

Deleted.  This is from 2 months ago.

[King of Kensington]

There are no words.

And sadly, he's likely to pull through as well, coming in with say, 37% of the vote.  The Liberals are looking too weak to take that seat back and it doesn't look like a winnable seat for the NDP either.  An NDP surge would just allow Adler to slip through, unfortunately.

The riding's Jewish population has been shrinking over the past 2 decades - it's now populated by the elderly, the Orthodox and immigrants from the FSU. 

[King of Kensington]

Even in 2011?

[King of Kensington]

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011. 

Though the Conservatives won the more heavily Chinese sections of Markham (i.e. Markham-Unionville in the present distribution).

[King of Kensington]

Agincourt is certainly one of the 3 safest Liberal ridings in Ontario (along with probably St. Paul's and Ottawa South).

[King of Kensington]

I don't think there's any meaningful difference between the NDP, Liberals and Greens on the issue of marijuana.

[King of Kensington]

Don't these idiots realize that Canada is in no position to rescind the Iran deal? 

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/justin-trudeau-fundraiser-picketed-by-jewish-group-over-liberals-support-for-iran-nuclear-deal

[King of Kensington]

I was in the Jewish part near Bathurst a couple weeks ago, saw one Mendicino sign in a sea of Joe Olivers. 

That's not surprising.  The middle section of Eglinton-Lawrence is a predominantly Orthodox Jewish community that votes as a bloc.  The real area to watch is North Toronto where a lot of affluent professionals (including a good number of more liberal-secular Jews) live.