Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 234268 times)
Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« on: August 08, 2015, 09:36:10 AM »
Quote from: cp on August 08, 2015, 02:30:40 AM
Quote from: King of Kensington on August 07, 2015, 08:11:15 PM
Sure, a projection model certainly doesn't capture things like incumbency or big swings very well.  For example, claims that the NDP is set to lose Surrey-Newton to the Liberals strike me as ridiculous.

But I don't see the 905 swinging Liberal in particular if they're clearly the third party.

Certainly a 905 "sweep" isn't likely for the Tories.  The NDP is very likely to pick up Oshawa and Brampton East and quite likely to break further into Brampton/Malton.  Half a dozen seats or so for the Liberals seems about right, in some ridings where they were narrowly defeated last time and where the NDP isn't going to be a contender.

Peel Region could very well see all three parties represented.

By sheer coincidence, there's a poll that bring together the two main strands of conversation so far (the debate and the vote patterns of the GTA):

Trudeau seen as strongest candidate by Torontonians in 1st debate

An interesting snippet from it:

"Trudeau was especially strong with residents in North York (31 per cent) and Peel Region (27 per cent), while Harper scored well in Etobicoke (27 per cent)."

Here's another interesting snippet:

"“We have to be careful, because this poll was conducted between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., and not everyone is home at that time,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a release Friday evening."

Gotta love Forum!  The drunken uncle of Canada's polling companies.
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2015, 12:43:33 PM »
Quote from: DC Al Fine on August 08, 2015, 09:44:34 AM
Any polls out since that Forum one? We need to confirm if this NDP pushing 40% trend is real or not.

It's the worst of both worlds for the NDP.  Nobody really believes that they were at 39%, but if the next poll shows them at 32% it will be seen as a disaster.
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Krago
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2015, 02:43:07 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2015, 02:46:37 PM by Krago »
Latest Nanos Poll

(change from previous week)
Cons: 31.2% (+0.3%)
NDP: 30.4% (+0.3%)
Lib: 28.6% (-0.7%)
Green: 5.0% (-0.4%)
BQ: 4.2% (+0.9%)

Atlantic: Lib 48% NDP 32% Cons 18% Green 2%
Quebec: NDP 39% Lib 28% BQ 17% Cons 13% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 37% Lib 29% NDP 26% Green 8%
MB/SK/AB: Cons 56% NDP 19% Lib 18% Green 6%
BC: NDP 41% Lib 29% Cons 26% Green 4%


A few points:
- No two regions have the same order (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
- In BC, the NDP has gained 15 points in the past month, all from the Greens
- Tories love those Ontario numbers
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2015, 08:22:55 AM »
Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2015, 09:23:43 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2015, 12:30:32 AM by Krago »
EKOS (Aug 5-11) / Forum (Aug 10-11) / Mainstreet (Aug 10-11) / Leger (Aug 10-12) / Election (May 2, 2011)

CanadaEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
30.4
28
30
27
39.6
NDP
31.8
34
30
33
30.6
Lib
24.2
27
29
28
18.9
BQ
4.2
6
4
5
6.1
Green
7.3
4
6
6
3.9

AtlanticEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
20
25
26
15
37.9
NDP
33
28
24
36
29.5
Lib
35
41
43
41
29.3
Green
9
6
7
8
3

QuebecEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
20
17
20
17
16.5
NDP
36
37
32
40
42.9
Lib
20
22
30
21
14.2
BQ
18
21
15
21
23.4
Green
4
1
3
1
2.1

OntarioEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
31
31
33
30
44.4
NDP
32
33
31
31
25.6
Lib
28
31
31
31
25.3
Green
7
4
5
5
3.8

Man/SaskEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
43
36
54.9
NDP
26
21
28.9
Lib
27
33
12.7
Green
4
8
3.1

ManitobaEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
34
44
53.5
NDP
20
17
25.8
Lib
36
34
16.6
Green
8
5
3.6

Sask.EKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
41
46
56.3
NDP
33
29
32.3
Lib
19
18
8.5
Green
5
8
2.6

AlbertaEKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
54
44
50
46
66.8
NDP
23
32
19
23
16.8
Lib
13
17
23
22
9.3
Green
8
5
7
8
5.2

B.C.EKOSForumMainstreetLeger2011
Cons
29
27
22
23
45.6
NDP
35
38
40
36
32.5
Lib
21
29
25
26
13.4
Green
13
6
13
13
7.7
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Krago
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2015, 03:26:52 PM »
Quote from: Krago on August 14, 2015, 09:23:43 PM
Ontario: EKOS / Forum / Mainstreet / Leger / 2011 Election
Cons: 31 / 31 / 33 / 30 / 44.4
NDP: 32 / 33 / 31 / 31 / 25.6
Lib: 28 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 25.3
Grn: 7 / 4 / 5 / 5 / 3.8

So if Ontario stays a perfect three-way split all the way to Election Day, who wins the most seats?  I'm guessing the NDP, due to the inefficiency of the Liberal vote, but what say you psephologists?
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2015, 09:06:46 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2015, 10:30:45 AM by Krago »
Here's the poll round-up for the week:

Election (May 2, 2011) / Ipsos (Aug 7-10) / EKOS (Aug 5-11) / Forum (Aug 10-11) / Mainstreet (Aug 10-11) / Leger (Aug 10-12)

Canada2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
39.6
30.8
30.4
28
30
27
NDP
30.6
33
31.8
34
30
33
Lib
18.9
27.8
24.2
27
29
28
BQ
6.1
3.9
4.2
6
4
5
Green
3.9
4
7.3
4
6
6

Atlantic2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
37.9
18.4
20
25
26
15
NDP
29.5
31
33
28
24
36
Lib
29.3
46.6
35
41
43
41
Green
3.0
3.4
9
6
7
8

Quebec2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
16.5
19.3
20
17
20
17
NDP
42.9
41
36
37
32
40
Lib
14.2
22.3
20
22
30
21
BQ
23.4
16.4
18
21
15
21
Green
2.1
0.5
4
1
3
1

Ontario2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
44.4
33.1
31
31
33
30
NDP
25.6
28.8
32
33
31
31
Lib
25.3
32.9
28
31
31
31
Green
3.8
4.3
7
4
5
5

Man/Sask2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
54.9
47.4
43
36
NDP
28.9
26.6
26
21
Lib
12.7
21.4
27
33
Green
3.1
4.6
4
8

Manitoba2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
53.5
34
44
NDP
25.8
20
17
Lib
16.6
36
34
Green
3.6
8
5

Sask.2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
56.3
41
46
NDP
32.3
33
29
Lib
8.5
19
18
Green
2.6
5
8

Alberta2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
66.8
49.7
54
44
50
46
NDP
16.8
30.1
23
32
19
23
Lib
9.3
16.8
13
17
23
22
Green
5.2
3.5
8
5
7
8

B.C.2011IpsosEKOSForumMainstreetLeger
Cons
45.6
27
29
27
22
23
NDP
32.5
37.1
35
38
40
36
Lib
13.4
25.8
21
29
25
26
Green
7.7
9.7
13
6
13
13
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2015, 10:55:30 AM »
A significant chunk of NDP support is very soft Liberals who want to put Stephen Harper in his political grave.  If the Tories drop to third, I foresee a big jump in Liberal support from both other parties.
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Krago
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2015, 01:40:11 PM »

Former Soviet Union
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Krago
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2015, 10:22:47 AM »
« Edited: August 18, 2015, 10:30:44 AM by Krago »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on August 18, 2015, 09:26:34 AM
Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.



Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.
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Krago
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2015, 11:35:29 AM »
Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

AgeStatsCanForum
18 to 34
51%
5%
35 to 44
20%
14%
45 to 54
12%
24%
55 to 64
9%
23%
65 +
9%
34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!
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Krago
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2015, 08:38:51 AM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on August 20, 2015, 08:24:33 AM
I don't buy those Quebec City numbers.


This was ALWAYS a possibility.

The Tories may be taking a hit over the Duffy Trial and the Revelations Thereof.  I can't wait to see the next batch of national polls to see if they drop to third place.
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Krago
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2015, 01:14:24 PM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on August 20, 2015, 12:43:38 PM
Quote from: Sibboleth on August 20, 2015, 12:22:45 PM
I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

We are well aware of your opinions, Al. I think we all know to be careful. That doesn't mean we can't have fun and speculate. So, stop being a Debbie Downer.


This is a Canadian election thread: no fun is allowed.

If you want some fun, go to one of the American threads and mildly criticize Ayn Rand.
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Krago
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2015, 01:22:00 PM »
We've all heard of Forum.
NDP continues to lead Conservatives, Liberals

Canada
NDP 34
Cons 29
Lib 28
Green 4
BQ 4
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2015, 09:33:28 PM »
Here's the weekly poll round-up.  I won't be including Nanos polls until they get rid of their silly four-week rolling sample.

Election (May 2, 2011) / Leger (Aug 10-12) / Abacus (Aug 14-17) / Forum (Aug 17-19)

Canada2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
39.6
27
29
29
NDP
30.6
33
35
34
Lib
18.9
28
26
28
BQ
6.1
5
3
4
Green
3.9
6
6
4

Atlantic2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
37.9
15
18
25
NDP
29.5
36
36
39
Lib
29.3
41
45
32
Green
3.0
8
1
2

Quebec2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
16.5
17
13
16
NDP
42.9
40
47
40
Lib
14.2
21
20
23
BQ
23.4
21
13
17
Green
2.1
1
6
3

Ontario2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
44.4
30
30
33
NDP
25.6
31
32
31
Lib
25.3
31
30
32
Green
3.8
5
7
4

Man/Sask2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
54.9
36
47
42
NDP
28.9
21
26
28
Lib
12.7
33
24
26
Green
3.1
8
1
3

Alberta2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
66.8
46
60
47
NDP
16.8
23
22
27
Lib
9.3
22
14
20
Green
5.2
8
4
4

B.C.2011LegerAbacusForum
Cons
45.6
23
32
24
NDP
32.5
36
34
39
Lib
13.4
26
24
28
Green
7.7
13
9
8
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2015, 07:03:25 AM »
There are two more former provincial cabinet ministers running for the NDP: Andrew Thomson In Eglinton-Lawrence and Thomas Mulcair in Outremont.
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Krago
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2015, 02:56:25 PM »
The Liberals campaign left and govern right.
The NDP campaigns left and governs incompetently.
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Krago
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2015, 06:34:10 AM »

It looks like the Liberals are using the Kathleen Wynne playbook for sidelining the NDP in Ontario.
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2015, 07:37:35 AM »
So Hatman, when are going to see some of those sweet, sweet EKOS numbers?
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2015, 03:56:30 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 04:00:23 PM by Krago »
Here are the top three NDP finishes in Quebec for every federal election in Quebec (1962-2011):

1962
OUTREMONT--ST-JEAN  --  CASGRAIN, Thérèse-F.   (20.02%)
MAISONNEUVE--ROSEMONT  --  DAOUST, Fernand   (16.20%)
SAINT-JEAN--IBERVILLE--NAPIERVILLE  --  ROY, Fernand   (15.08%)

1963
MAISONNEUVE--ROSEMONT  --  DAOUST, Fernand   (18.51%)
OUTREMONT--ST-JEAN  --  CASGRAIN, Thérèse-F.   (17.99%)
MOUNT ROYAL  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (16.55%)

1965
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  GIFFORD, C.G.   (32.52%)
MOUNT ROYAL  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (29.60%)
BEAUCE  --  CLICHE, Robert   (29.44%)

1968
DUVERNAY  --  CLICHE, Robert   (43.85%)
DOLLARD  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (22.16%)
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  GIFFORD, C.G.   (20.04%)

1972
HOCHELAGA  --  LALIBERTÉ, Raymond-Gérard   (17.82%)
AHUNTSIC  --  DE BELLEFEUILLE, Pierre   (16.73%)
OUTREMONT  --  GAUTRIN, Henri-François   (15.98%)

1974
LOUIS-HÉBERT  --  STANTON, Françoise Gamache   (14.32%)
MANICOUAGAN  --  PERRON, Raymond   (13.45%)
LONGUEUIL  --  GAUTRIN, Henri-François   (12.78%)

1979
HULL  --  LÉGÈRE, Michel   (16.56%)
OUTREMONT  --  BRISSON, Claire A.   (10.33%)
LOUIS-HÉBERT  --  DAOUST, Jean   (10.12%)

1980
HULL  --  LÉGÈRE, Michel   (24.53%)
CHAMPLAIN  --  MATTE, René   (23.08%)
JONQUIÈRE  --  HUBERT, Jacques   (15.02%)

1984
HULL--AYLMER  --  AUDETTE, Jacques   (19.62%)
OUTREMONT  --  BEAUDIN, Johanne   (18.86%)
LÉVIS  --  HARNEY, Jean-Paul   (18.52%)

1988
TÉMISCAMINGUE  --  TRUDEL, Rémy   (37.84%)
CHAMBLY  --  EDMONSTON, Phil   (31.52%)
SAINT-MAURICE  --  ROMPRÉ, Claude   (30.12%)

1993
OUTREMONT  --  KALLOS, Catherine   (4.46%)
SAINT-HENRI--WESTMOUNT  --  ELBOURNE, Ann   (3.95%)
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  TOOMBS, Bruce   (3.50%)

1997
OUTREMONT  --  GOMBERG, Tooker   (6.44%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  CARTER, Chris   (5.72%)
QUÉBEC  --  FISET, Jean-Marie   (4.59%)

2000
OUTREMONT  --  GRAEFE, Peter   (5.58%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  BLOMME, Willy   (5.19%)
LAURIER--SAINTE-MARIE  --  CHARTIER, Richard   (4.75%)

2004
OUTREMONT  --  AKTOUF, Omar   (14.06%)
LAURIER  --  GRÉGOIRE, François   (12.08%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  STEEDMAN, Eric Wilson   (11.99%)

2006
OUTREMONT  --  LAUZON, Léo-Paul   (17.20%)
LAURIER--SAINTE-MARIE  --  GRÉGOIRE, François   (16.68%)
HULL--AYLMER  --  LALIBERTÉ, Pierre   (15.49%)

2008
OUTREMONT  --  MULCAIR, Thomas   (39.53%)
GATINEAU  --  BOIVIN, Françoise   (26.13%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  LAGACÉ DOWSON, Anne   (22.93%)

2011
GATINEAU  --  BOIVIN, Françoise   (61.83%)
HULL--AYLMER  --  TURMEL, Nycole   (59.20%)
OUTREMONT  --  MULCAIR, Thomas   (56.37%)
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2015, 04:10:18 PM »
If at first...

1984  --  VERDUN--SAINT-PAUL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (9.80%)
1993  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.49%)
1997  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.32%)
2000  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.42%)
2004  --  LAVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (4.10%)
2006  --  LAVAL--LES ÎLES   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (7.20%)
2008  --  LAVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (12.46%)
2011  --  MARC-AURÈLE-FORTIN   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (49.68%)
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2015, 10:39:49 AM »
My favourite CBC Vote Compass story was that someone voted 'Don't know' to every question and it told them to vote Liberal.
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Krago
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Posts: 1,084
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2015, 03:44:59 PM »
Here the weekly poll update:

Election (May 2, 2011) / Angus-Reid (Aug 19-24) / Forum (Aug 23-24) / EKOS (Aug 19-25) / Ipsos (Aug 24-26) / Innovative (Aug 24-26)

Canada2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
39.6
32
23
28.1
29
30
NDP
30.6
36
40
33.6
33
32
Lib
18.9
23
30
26.7
30
27
BQ
6.1
4
3
4.1
4
4
Green
3.9
4
3
5.8
4
6

Atlantic2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
37.9
25
21
13.5
17
24
NDP
29.5
30
27
33.9
35
27
Lib
29.3
39
47
44.7
46
43
Green
3.0
5
4
6.9
1
5

Quebec2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
16.5
14
11
17.4
16
17
NDP
42.9
51
54
43.9
40
41
Lib
14.2
17
19
15.6
25
22
BQ
23.4
17
14
17.0
16
17
Green
2.1
1
1
4.9
3
2

Ontario2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
44.4
35
26
29.8
31
32
NDP
25.6
33
36
30.2
32
29
Lib
25.3
28
33
33.3
33
31
Green
3.8
4
3
5.0
5
6


Man/Sask2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
54.9
28
38
41
NDP
28.9
41
20
26
Lib
12.7
28
36
27
Green
3.1
2
6
5

Manitoba2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
53.5
44
29.8
NDP
25.8
24
24.5
Lib
16.6
27
34.1
Green
3.6
4
9.5

Sask.2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
56.3
48
41.6
NDP
32.3
31
26.5
Lib
8.5
18
25.1
Green
2.6
3
6.6

Alberta2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
66.8
58
42
50.5
47
44
NDP
16.8
21
32
23.0
26
32
Lib
9.3
13
22
18.2
22
19
Green
5.2
6
2
4.2
2
5

B.C.2011Angus-ReidForumEKOSIpsosInnovative
Cons
45.6
32
21
28.4
34
30
NDP
32.5
37
39
37.7
31
33
Lib
13.4
22
32
23.5
30
25
Green
7.7
9
7
9.3
5
11
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Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,084
« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2015, 09:04:04 AM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on August 31, 2015, 08:50:48 AM
Pretending to run to the left of the NDP worked for the Liberals last year in Ontario. They're hoping the strategy will work again this time. In Ontario, they were helped by the media actively backing this message and looking for all the so-called NDPers complaining about how centrist the party had got. I don't think the media is as willing to do that this time.

Neither the Liberals nor the Toronto Star possess any sense of shame.  The Liberals will continue their Wynne-ing strategy, while the Toronto Star will aid and abet.
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Krago
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,084
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2015, 08:49:39 AM »
A friend loves to remind me on how he clobbered Paul Wells in Reach for the Top (high school quiz show) back in 1981.
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