Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, there definitely a lot of well to do Ontarians who believe that politics ought to be boring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I never said that the craving of boredom could not have (paradoxically) interesting consequences...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BC has a very volatile electorate, even for Canada. Always been that way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well... a former Liberal MP, yes. But elected for the CA. And then deselected by the local Liberal Party in favour of the Liberal MP he defeated to win the seat in the first place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not especially. Sample size is terrible outside of Ontario & Quebec, and that's before you factor in the volatility of the electorate.

^^^

Ontario and Quebec breakdowns are usually at least vaguely useful, but for elsewhere you need a lot of salt. And when samples are small enough individual ridings can skew the results: a sample from Saskatchewan (for instance) that includes a lot of voters from Regina-Wascana is maybe not going to be much use.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though be warned not to trust tiny poll subsamples all that much. We've been here before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is a huge problem with any polling at the riding level.

And - at the risk of sounding like a broken record - not the only one either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saskatchewan/Manitoba subsamples are always a bit dodgy because they are so small and because (of course) the two provinces are actually very different. This one doesn't smell worse than some of the others we've seen already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that it's Canada. And not just Canada but Quebec.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, even in the rural ridings of Eastern Ontario, federally Don Boudria made his riding of Glengary-Prescott-Russel  a personal fiefdom for many years, but more recently his Liberal successors have been unable to resist the more general regional trends.

That area was a Liberal stronghold long before that bizarre moustachioed rat creature walked on stage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Forum are pretty terrible, but is there actually a Canadian polling firm (these days) that isn't?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What should Harper be wearing?

A Niqab?

It would be more fitting with where Canada is headed demographically.

Tender?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow a whole three percent of the population! That's practically a majority!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't fret overmuch about regional breakdowns. They are trash by definition. But I think you should consider (as like citizens and so on) pushing for polls of provinces. Like proper ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, Canada is different. It has never elected a left wing government before.

But, seriously, lets not get carried away by cults of roving electoral shakedown artists. The Tories did not win the election here this year because of Crosbie; the Australian Liberals did not win repeated elections under Howard because of Crosbie either. Political journalists are apt to big up the impact of these people because they are generally howlingly ignorant of how elections work and so are delighted to be able to turn around and declare that 'a wizard did it'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this going to be one of those Canadian elections that out Canadian elections itself?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh I'm responsible for that one

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why are Canadian parties so bad at screening candidates? Obviously this sort of thing happens everywhere and is unavoidable to an extent (because people lie and no one has the time to check out everything about the paper candidate for Unwinnable East), but the sheer number of occurrences given the relatively small number of seats? Every election?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On a lighter note, Hasidic voting patterns are often hilarious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This sense that you can't run for office without having had your whole life approved by a PR department is one reason for the appeal of people like the Fords or Donald Trump.

Whole post is good, but this part in particular is very true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean constituency polling is not very reliable (or so I'm told someone here likes to say) but those are some spectacularly grim numbers. As in if accurate and if reflective they would point towards coming third in terms of seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the other thing to note is that the party that has (according to most polls) dropped the most votes from last time round is not the NDP...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't overanalyse regional subsamples comrades