Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Volrath50]

I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

[Volrath50]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A2bniFJigI0

Heh, I hadn't seen that, but it does appear another Onion thing is well on its way to becoming true. Seeing this happen, I've been keeping my own posts fairly tame for the past decade.

[Volrath50]

I don't think, especially after the experience of the LibDems in the UK, and the fact that Trudeau was absolutely adamant that he would never join a Mulcair-led coalition, that the NDP would want to be the junior partner in a Liberal coalition.

[Volrath50]

Has such a situation ever occurred provincially, where a plurality party is shut out by an alliance of smaller parties?

Ontario 1985, Saskatchewan 1929, federal 1925

But all three cases had the first and second place very close and third place far behind second place.  If CPC can win the seat count by 20+ seats and LPC and NDP are fairly close in terms of seats then I have to assume CPC will claim the government.   I have to assume that neither LPC nor NDP after seeing what happened to the UK LibDems want the same thing happening to them if they play second fiddle top the second place finisher. 

Both parties are substantially stronger and with a much larger base than the LibDems, so this comparison seems a bit of a stretch.

Even if they are stronger, the dynamic remains similar, and I think the Liberals would get most of the praise for the government, while the NDP would be stuck defending whatever unpopular policies came out of it.

Furthermore, Trudeau categorically ruled out any coalition unless he was the dominant party, so it doesn't seem like the NDP ought to enter into a coalition if Trudeau ends up on top, if he won't return the favor if Mulcair ends up with more seats.

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

[Volrath50]

Additionally, the closest example to a coalition we have is the 1985 Ontario election, where the NDP supported the Liberals with a formal pact, but didn't enter into a coalition. The next election saw the Liberals turn their minority into a majority, with the NDP losing a few seats.

True, but you know the outcome of the 1987 election wasn't the end of the world for the NDP in Ontario. They went up 3% in the popular vote and they became the official opposition to the Liberals while the Ontario PCs imploded...setting the stage for the NDP to win the subsequent 1990 Ontario election. Compared to what has happened to other "junior partners" it actually wasn't all that bad an outcome.

Actually, thinking about it, a pact similar to 1985 might be better than a coalition for the NDP if it ends up Con-Lib-NDP. They won't have to answer (as much) for whatever unpopular policies/scandals come out of the Trudeau government, and can continue to oppose Trudeau, bash his policies, criticize his hair, etc, while claiming they "got rid of Stephen Harper."

That being said, there is still lots of time left, and I still think Mulcair can make a comeback. It was only two and a half weeks ago that the Conservative campaign seemed moribund, they were in third, and had to bring in Lynton Crosby. (Who I'm guessing is in part behind the Niqab issue, and the decision to revoke citizenship in the middle of the election.)

[Volrath50]

Angus-Reid: 34/27/27.

So Nanos is the only one showing the Liberals well ahead of the NDP. Interesting. Nanos usually ends up pretty close to the final result, but IIRC from previous campaigns, his numbers are often a bit different from other pollsters.

Also, Mulcair today announced he'll eliminate interest on student loans. This looks like it might be the start of a push back against "boring, safe" Mulcair, with some more energetic policies.

[Volrath50]

I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

Well, there goes your viability as a candidate.

Heh, I should hope something isn't taken that much out of context, but you never know.

[Volrath50]

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.

[Volrath50]

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.

Thoughtful Cynic's point wasn't that Mulcair would resign for losing the election, or even that he would want to resign, it's that he effectively would be pushed out by the NDP's left wing.  It's hard to argue with that at this point.

I suppose I could see that, but party leaders are so powerful in Canada, I wonder how much power they would have to do that, if Mulcair wants to stay, especially as I don't think there are any really obvious, really strong candidates to replace him with. I don't think any of the 2012 leadership candidates would be doing any better than Mulcair.

[Volrath50]

Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.

McLaughlin also led the party from its best showing to its worst and lost over 3/4 of the party's votes and seats. Mulcair, barring a complete collapse in the next 2.5 weeks, looks at worst to still pull in around 100 seats, and a result that's only disappointing compared to the beginning of the campaign, and quite good compared to even just a few months ago.

[Volrath50]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

I still have a hard time comprehending how such a truly insignificant, symbolic issue is taking such centre stage. I suppose an issue like this is less complex and easier to understand, than something like the TPP, so voters are more likely to have a position on, and strong feelings about it, I guess.

[Volrath50]

Way, way, WAY too early to start saying things like "Prime Minister Trudeau". What is this, May 1968?

This.

For all we know, Mulcair could recover, or the Bloc could win enough seats to ruin the coalition math, or Harper could win a majority or....

No sense bringing the fat lady out to sing yet. This is Canadian politics after all.

I think part of the issue is the self-fulfilling prophecy of polls and their reporting. The NDP dropped a bit in the polls, and journalists started writing "IT'S ALL OVER FOR THE NDP" type articles, creating a further drop in the polls and even more doomsaying articles and so on, creating a viscous cycle. The same sort of thing happened to Ignatieff last time, and happens all the time in US primary elections (part of what did Walker in, IMO).

[Volrath50]

There is actually a way to guarantee Harper’s defeat. Here’s how:

https://medium.com/@kashani/there-is-actually-a-way-to-guarantee-harper-s-defeat-here-s-how-11ca79cec748

Blah, strategic voting always bothers me. I'm voting for a party the party I prefer, regardless of whether certain other parties think they are entitled to my vote by reason of existing. Besides, a large portion of the time strategic voting backfires, and the candidate the "strategic voting" websites endorse end up in third, sometimes actually giving the Conservatives the seat.

[Volrath50]

Have a lot of NDP voters switched to LIB for tactical purposes?

Some have. A great many more Canadians aren't really wedded to a particular party and just want to get rid of the Conservatives. They were largely undecided/ambivalent toward whether Trudeau or Mulcair won, they just wanted to replace Harper with a progressive PM. As the campaign wore on, and Trudeau pulled out ahead, they are breaking toward the Liberals as they seem to be the choice to replace the Conservatives.  I personally know a few of these voters.

[Volrath50]

I'd be willing to bet that Andrew Leslie would immediately become Minister of National Defense. He's a well regarded retired general, former commander of the army and actually descendant from two prior Liberal Ministers of National Defense. I think it would be hard to find anyone more qualified for the portfolio in all of Canada.

I also doubt that Trudeau would go with that many Chretien/Martin-era retreads. He wants to convince people that he really represents a new Liberal Party, not just a fresh coat of paint on the tired old Chretien/Martin era.