Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet Technologies?

They did a lot of polling in the Alberta election.

[Hatman 🍁]

This was interesting, not sure if/how we can extrapolate any seats moving hands:
https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains-in-45-liberal-party-two-way-races-says-pollster-lyle/43035

In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent."

Blue Liberals coming home? This is concerning, as these voters are likely to switch back to the Tories to stop the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blue Liberals coming home? This is concerning, as these voters are likely to switch back to the Tories to stop the NDP.

Yeah, i can just see all those "Blue Liberals" clutching their pearls in terror that the NDP will NOT increase personal income taxes on those making over $150k per year while the Liberals WILL! Imagine the fear that must be gripping the Rosedale tennis club "Hey, did you hear, Mulcair is NOT going to raise our taxes - I'm so scared"

People aren't paying attention yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

FTQ endorses the NPD. No surprise.

One can argue it is somewhat surprising, more of a "Finally" moment. FTQ endorsed the Bloc in 1993, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011.

What happened in 2004?

[Hatman 🍁]

One query; why do the Conservatives seem to be doing so badly British Columbia? I know that BC has, traditionally, been one of the NDP's strongest provinces, but the Conservatives have won the most votes and seats there since their formation, and the province was a stronghold for the Canadia Alliance/ Reform party before that (although, if I recall correctly, Reform and to a lesser extent the Canadian Alliance had a stronger regional, non-ideological appeal, than the present Conservative party does, which might be a factor). But now the Conservatives seem to be polling third a lot.

I suspect a lot of that Conservative vote has shifted to the Liberals. I suspect they will go back to supporting the Tories when they realize the Liberals have no chance in most BC ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish someone would actually poll SiD, so we can see whether SiD support actually exists.

It doesn't exist, so why bother?

Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/13/mulcair-seen-as-skilled-as-harper-on-the-economy-poll-shows.html

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/

NDP - 34%
CPC - 28%
LPC - 27%
NDP lead in, surprise, BC, PQ and tied in ON (33% NDP, CPC & LPC 31%)

bump for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP, after Trudeau was seen to have performed better then expected. But really, I think Liberals and Conservatives were playing that up, setting low expectations so that, as long as Justin didn't frak up he'd be seen as the winner... but that closing statement!

At any rate, the NDP leads on who would be best to handle the economy, statistical tie really 30% vs the CPC at 29%, LPC at 26% with the Economic debate still to come. Mulcair just needs to find a better balance, bring out the bear more in the debate.

This isn't so much a drop for the NDP as just being a more accurate poll than their last one, which was most likely an outlier.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

Manitobans will not vote for the federal NDP no matter how popular they are in other provinces, as long as they have an unpopular provincial government. See 1988.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger:

NDP: 33
Lib: 28
Cons: 27

So the surprise is the Tories are in third. But, this is not the first time Leger's numbers are off of the trend.

[Hatman 🍁]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

The provincial NDP was very unpopular 5 months prior to the 2011 Manitoba election. They only gained traction over the summer, thanks to the revival of the Winnipeg Jets and their handling of the floods.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

As for Alberta, I don't think the NDP government is unpopular (yet?). Wildrose may be ahead in the polls, but that has more to do with people going back to their normal parties of support. A good chunk of people who voted NDP in the spring only voted NDP to kick out the Tories. Those people aren't necessarily left wing, and are now supporting Wildrose. These people were never going to vote for the federal NDP. Having said that, the NDP could pick up maybe 4 more seats in the province. 

[Hatman 🍁]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

The provincial NDP was very unpopular 5 months prior to the 2011 Manitoba election. They only gained traction over the summer, thanks to the revival of the Winnipeg Jets and their handling of the floods.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

As for Alberta, I don't think the NDP government is unpopular (yet?). Wildrose may be ahead in the polls, but that has more to do with people going back to their normal parties of support. A good chunk of people who voted NDP in the spring only voted NDP to kick out the Tories. Those people aren't necessarily left wing, and are now supporting Wildrose. These people were never going to vote for the federal NDP. Having said that, the NDP could pick up maybe 4 more seats in the province. 

I agree that the NDP could maybe pick up four more seats, but they may also surprise in Lethbridge.

Those four seats include Lethbridge (Edm Griesbach, Edm Centre, Edm Manning being the others). The NDP could win Edm Mill Woods too on a good day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

[Hatman 🍁]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.

Yes, that was my point.

Problem is, young people don't answer surveys. But, they also don't vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

Age	StatsCan	Forum
18 to 34	51%	5%
35 to 44	20%	14%
45 to 54	12%	24%
55 to 64	9%	23%
65 +	9%	34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!

... so forum just took the demographics and reversed them when they wanted to poll? ummm wow this is odd balls. But yes the NDP does tend to poll better with 18-34 but 83% Chow has a great youth ground game... getting them to vote is another matter eh

Again, young people don't respond to polls, plus most young people do not have landlines (it's impossible to do riding polls in Toronto with cell sample). Those 15 young people appear to be weighted up 10 times their worth to equal half the sample. Not very good methodology. And those 15 kids with landlines aren't going to be very representative of your average young person in the riding (as they probably live at home with mom and dad, if they have a landline!)

[Hatman 🍁]

This is a huge problem with any polling at the riding level. People under 40 do not have landlines and it is IMPOSSIBLE to get cell phone numbers at the riding level.

Impossible for large cities, but not as problematic for smaller cities/rural areas, when you can trace cell phone numbers to local rate centres.

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This is true, which is why I'm not too worried about the lack of cell phone cases in riding polls for the time being.

[Hatman 🍁]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

[Hatman 🍁]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

Outside of Malton, there is no real natural NDP constituency in Mississsauga-Malton, so I don't think the NDP can win it. However, Bampton East, North and Centre do have a lot of Indo-Canadians, which means all three seats could be won.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how receptive the Sikh community will be of Martin Singh, who is a White convert.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how receptive the Sikh community will be of Martin Singh, who is a White convert.

I don't claim to be an expert on the Sikh community but I am told that it is actually a big advantage for him. Apparently Sikhs think its wonderful that a WASP Canadian would convert to their religion and since it happens so rarely it actually gives him some "star quality" in their eyes.

Yeah, I think he had a lot of support from Sikhs during his leadership race. Didn't he set up an office in Brampton? Also, let's not forget he finished with more votes than Niki Ashton.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't buy those Quebec City numbers.

BQ could be shut out.

This was ALWAYS a possibility.

[Hatman 🍁]

So bringing back that old guy isn't working out?

No, but it may have been their only shot and revival. (Just like the Liberals' only shot was picking Trudeau, in my opinion.)

[Hatman 🍁]

"Lead Now" has released some riding polls: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

Calgary Centre:
Cons: 44
Lib: 32
NDP: 17
Grn: 7

Edmonton Griesbach
NDP: 48
Cons: 32
Lib: 15
Grn: 5

Port Moody-Coquitlam
NDP: 54
Cons: 27
Lib: 14
Grn: 5

Vancouver Granville
NDP: 36
Cons: 30
Lib: 24
Grn: 10

Elmwood-Transcona
NDP: 39
Cons: 30
Lib: 25
Grn: 6

Fredericton
Lib: 34
Cons: 29
NDP: 26
Grn: 12

Eglinton-Lawrence
Cons: 36
Lib: 35
NDP: 25
Grn: 4

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Lib: 36
Cons: 31
NDP: 28
Grn: 5

Kitchener Centre
NDP: 33
Lib: 31
Cons: 29
Grn: 7

London North Centre
Lib: 34
Cons: 32
NDP: 27
Grn: 6

Willowdale
Lib: 37
Cons: 32
NDP: 26
Grn: 5

Saskatoon-University
NDP: 41
Cons: 34
Lib: 22
Grn: 4

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Lib: 30
NDP: 27
Cons: 23
Grn: 19

[Hatman 🍁]

Those are all ridings that went notionally Conservative in 2011. They are only leading in two.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like they've gone back and done a transposition of the 2006 and 2008 elections onto the new ridings: http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/list/

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP at 27% in West Van is a bit of a surprise, considering how wealthy that area is.

The NDP is actually polling bellow their 2011 result in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberals are eating into Tory and NDP support there. I suspect the Liberal numbers will go back down there, but how will they break?

[Hatman 🍁]

I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

We are well aware of your opinions, Al. I think we all know to be careful. That doesn't mean we can't have fun and speculate. So, stop being a Debbie Downer.