Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I will be ordering a special ballot for Mississauga—Lakeshore since my vote will be wasted in Vancouver Centre. Is that bad? I mean, I do feel like Mississauga is more my home than here, and I actually know Stella Ambler and care about local issues back home (not that local issues really matter in an election that's basically just about Harper fatigue, but still). I just kinda feel bad. But I guess when you have two homes it's your prerogative to choose where you vote.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Vancouver Centre has the possibility of being a close race, especially if the NDP is 15-20% ahead in BC on election day. I'll be requesting a special ballot for Timmins-James Bay since I'm living in California now.

Close between the two leftist parties. That's not a horserace I have much interest in haha.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

As a sort of casual observer, it looks to me like the biggest issue this cycle is Harper fatigue. That is extremely difficult to combat in a Conservative campaign because it means politicos and the press are primed to always find something wrong with whatever Harper does. So I'm not optimistic that things could be much better.

That aside, I think the camp could try a bit harder not to play right into everyone's hands. Right now the most memorable things I can think of from the Conservative campaign are the initial "rules of access to CPC events," strict criteria for taking outside questions, snafus over the sources of images being used in campaign graphics, the transparently political response to the refugee crisis because Harper wants a foreign policy election, and a round of silly attack ads from that are uncharacteristically ineffective and laughable. This is the best they can do?

Unleash Harper, have him take a bunch of questions, walk him around in public, get him appearing on all sorts of media, dress the guy up in something a little more modern and approachable, have him show some emotion (I know I'm getting unrealistic now), own up to some mistakes, and do an about-face on some of the more progressive issues that people care about and wouldn't undermine the party's credibility (like the missing Aboriginal women inquiry). He needs to change the story, so do something crazy and fresh that might make people think you're still worth taking one last gamble on.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Cast a special ballot for Mississauga—Lakeshore's Stella Ambler from Vancouver Centre the other day. Feels nice to cast a ballot that might actually matter. I guess it comes with the territory of living in a downtown riding, but as long as I have a claim to residency in the swingy 905, I'll take it for voting purposes.

And yes, the Cabot Trail is beautiful. Sydney, however... Well, I'll just say I didn't really find it offered much by way of things to do.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

Once again, it is much, much, *much* too early to be making these kinds of predictions!

That said, that particular scenario if it came true would be, in my estimation, rather poetic justice.

I disagree, actually. The anti-Harper sentiment is strong, and if it becomes clear which party the progressives should coalesce behind (and in this case, it's evidently going to be the Liberal Party), the movement of voters, en masse, from one leftist camp to the other could be staggering. I would not be surprised to see the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 40% in a week and a half.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

That's quite a comeback for the Conservatives -the way people were going on about the election gave me the impression they were doomed. 

Apparently, they may yet eke out a win. 

See, I don't really consider it a win unless they pull off a majority. A Conservative minority parliament would not last long.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Indeed. I have to say, as someone who is used to French political discourse, the current Québec issues seem all too familiar to me.

They're hardly 'issues' given that they're completely invented fantasies, much like the 'reasonable accommodations' which were by and large invented fantasies.

I don't know about that. The concept of laïcité, from what I understand of it, hits at the heart of themes around French citizenship, identity, and democracy. It's very real. I mean, I don't think it justifies something that looks to me like discrimination and race-baiting, but it's important to some Quebecers for more than just racist reasons.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I still think a Liberal majority is a distinct possibility. Progressives hate Harper.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The fat lady is singing, guys. Pretty down in the dumps over the fact that Justin Trudeau will be the next prime minister of Canada. I had a dream last night where Tom Mulcair was explaining his thought process over whether he'd resign...

It's all just very sad. I would've preferred Mulcair over Justin, and the novelty of a pragmatic federal NDP government would've at least been interesting. Plus, I think Tom is a pretty upstanding guy. Just awful to see his campaign tank over a niqab (among other things, like the self-fulfilling prophecies that are polls, which is infuriating). Now we're back to the old status quo, I think.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Could Leslie herself be in danger, considering the Liberals are expected to romp the Atlantic?

Paging DC.

Yes, she's definitely at risk right now. I suspect she'll hold on, but its not a sure thing.

Does she have French skills? She'd be an interesting fresh face for the party...

[HagridOfTheDeep]

CEO of Mainstreet Polling says it will be a Liberal majority https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/654113484729282560

Well, it was obvious we were heading to this result a week ago. I know things could still change... but they won't.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Maybe this will be a dumb comment, but could it be that national NDP support dropped mostly because NDP support dropped in ridings where they were losing anyway? In other words, could it be that the push towards strategic voting sent Dippers flooding into the Liberal column in places like, say, Mississauga, where the NDP would not have ever won?

So nationally, their numbers are down, but it may not translate into as devastating a loss of seats as one would think?

I don't know.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Angus Reid says Lib 35, Con 31, NDP 22

Shy Tory syndrome with those numbers could still potentially eke out a very slim CPC minority, right?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm also interested in the possibility of the Liberals winning a minority with the NDP as the official opposition, though I know it's unlikely. It would put the NDP in a very weird position; the opposition usually has to effectively draw contrasts, so how much of the Liberal agenda do they support, and how often would the Libs have to moderate to win Conservative support?

Or, on the flip-side, is there any scenario whatsoever where the NDP and Conservative Party would entertain a coalition with each other against the Trudeau Liberals? This is all fantasy now, but I'm at the point where I'd prefer anything over PM Trudeau, so... gotta grasp at straws.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."