First people say he isn't running - then he runs
Then they say he won't file his paperwork - then he does
Then they say he won't get anywhere in the polls - now he's leading them all
He says things that the media says will end his campaign - he comes out even stronger
What'll it take before people take this guy seriously?
It's not that people don't take him seriously. It's that they want him to go away, because he upsets applecarts.
Donald Trump is a known quantity; people will vote for him in certain numbers, and the GOP field is so crowded that 50% isn't going to be reached by any one contender in the first few primaries. This winnows him in. What is also winnowed in is a platform that doesn't perfectly coincide with the rest of the GOP.
Trump has touched two (2) of the sacred cows of the GOP, the biggest one being the free trade deals that benefit the investor class and the donor class, but have clobbered the working class (by job losses) and the middle class (by increasing the power of the investor class to depress wages). This is the big one. The other is the problem of illegal immigration, which the GOP wants to have both ways. They talk tough because "the base" demands this, but they don't intend to do anything about it that would meaningfully shut off the flow of illegal immigration, because the donor class benefits from illegal immigration.
In a sort-of FDR fashion, Trump's candidacy is the candidacy of a traitor to his class. This is something that the GOP just can't have; it's the billionaire capitalist class that funds their SuperPACs and their campaigns, and here's Donald Trump threatening to wreck havoc by actually opposing further trade deals and actually building a border fence. Maybe Trump's all hot air, but the folks who would be touched by Trump are the richest and most powerful and they're not taking any chances.
Politics is like this. It's how Richard Daley got elected Mayor. The incumbent, Martin Kennelly (knows as Fartin' Martin) was a rich moving van executive who was tapped by the Democratic Machine because they thought he'd forever have his head in the clouds and go along with anything they wanted. To the Machine's horror, Kenelly advocated Civil Service reform, which would have ended the use of patronage to maintain political power, and the Machine couldn't have that. Times have changed; it's a new Machine and a new Patronage issue, but Trump (like Kennelly) went somewhere that he wasn't supposed to go, and the Machine isn't taking it to chance that maybe he's not serious, because he just may be serious as a heart attack.
