How would a Biden candidacy for the nomination impact the Sanders campaign?

[Lincoln Republican]

How would a Biden candidacy  for the Democratic Presidential nomination impact the Sanders campaign?

Please discuss.

[Vega]

It would most definitely hurt Sanders, sadly. Some of the "Anyone but Hillary" crowd would dry up from Bernie and switch to Biden.

Bernie would still be a contender, though, because Biden is more likely to take away support from Hillary than he is Sanders.

[Famous Mortimer]

I've said before I think it would hurt Sanders and help Hillary. I even think he might be doing it as a favor to Hillary.

Before Biden, she was like looking a narrow victory over Sanders maybe 55/45 or possibly even losing 49/51.

Now she's going to cruise to victory 45/25/25.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I actually think that it would help Sanders to some extent. I remember a few polls that suggested that Biden pulled more from Hillary than Bernie.

[Mehmentum]

Going to re-post something from another thread:

While Biden might be bad for Hillary, I don't think Sanders fans should rejoice (unless the only reason they're supporting Sanders is because they hate Hillary).  If Biden enters, suddenly a lot of the media focus is off Sanders as Hillary's main challenger.  

Additionally, I think Biden will compete more with Sanders than is immediately obvious.  Bernie Sanders is going to need to win the vast majority of Obama's supporters (or else win some of Clinton's 2008 supporters) and Biden, as Obama's VP, will be seen as Obama's successor by some.

Sure, many of these Obama 2008 voters are currently supporting for Clinton, but that doesn't change the fact that Sanders needs them too.  

Also, Sanders' best (and probably only chance) of victory is if Clinton begins imploding due to some major (as of yet undiscovered) scandal, or is otherwise unable to run.  Without Biden, this scenario leaves Sanders essentially unopposed.  With Biden, the vast majority of Clinton's supporters will switch over to him.

[Lincoln Republican]

Biden has a broad base of support in the Democratic Party, which only would have grown after having served two terms as the loyal Vice President, and I believe he would draw support from both Clinton and Sanders, although more so from Sanders than from Clinton.

After it becomes clear that Biden is the main competitor to Clinton, Sanders would withdraw and support Biden. 

[Angel of Death]

For what it's worth, Biden voted for the Iraq War.

[Kingpoleon]

It would prevent a Clinton-victory early. She has to win Iowa to remain competitive, correct? Well, if Biden makes it close, she will have to campaign heavily in Iowa. The last two weeks, Biden drops the pressure and kicks down the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the former, he places second and in the latter manages first.

After that, all candidates will focus on Nevada and Florida. Biden might want to let Sanders take Florida and thus focus his main efforts on winning Nevada, making Clinton split her time between the two.

[Mr. Morden]

It would prevent a Clinton-victory early. She has to win Iowa to remain competitive, correct? Well, if Biden makes it close, she will have to campaign heavily in Iowa. The last two weeks, Biden drops the pressure and kicks down the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the former, he places second and in the latter manages first.

After that, all candidates will focus on Nevada and Florida. Biden might want to let Sanders take Florida and thus focus his main efforts on winning Nevada, making Clinton split her time between the two.

Florida is two weeks after Super Tuesday this time.

Also, there's a good chance that (like in 2008) the South Carolina primary will be held on different days for the two parties, with the Democratic SC primary being held after Nevada.  That's still not settled though.

Also, why does Clinton have to win Iowa to remain competitive?  I don't think she'll lose Iowa, but why would losing Iowa not simply knock her down a peg, but make her "uncompetitive" going forward?

[Famous Mortimer]

It would prevent a Clinton-victory early. She has to win Iowa to remain competitive, correct? Well, if Biden makes it close, she will have to campaign heavily in Iowa. The last two weeks, Biden drops the pressure and kicks down the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the former, he places second and in the latter manages first.

After that, all candidates will focus on Nevada and Florida. Biden might want to let Sanders take Florida and thus focus his main efforts on winning Nevada, making Clinton split her time between the two.

Florida is two weeks after Super Tuesday this time.

Also, there's a good chance that (like in 2008) the South Carolina primary will be held on different days for the two parties, with the Democratic SC primary being held after Nevada.  That's still not settled though.

Also, why does Clinton have to win Iowa to remain competitive?  I don't think she'll lose Iowa, but why would losing Iowa not simply knock her down a peg, but make her "uncompetitive" going forward?

Every piece of electoral analysis Kingpoleon posts is illogical and incorrect. He's a troll.

[Kingpoleon]

It would prevent a Clinton-victory early. She has to win Iowa to remain competitive, correct? Well, if Biden makes it close, she will have to campaign heavily in Iowa. The last two weeks, Biden drops the pressure and kicks down the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the former, he places second and in the latter manages first.

After that, all candidates will focus on Nevada and Florida. Biden might want to let Sanders take Florida and thus focus his main efforts on winning Nevada, making Clinton split her time between the two.

Florida is two weeks after Super Tuesday this time.

Also, there's a good chance that (like in 2008) the South Carolina primary will be held on different days for the two parties, with the Democratic SC primary being held after Nevada.  That's still not settled though.

Also, why does Clinton have to win Iowa to remain competitive?  I don't think she'll lose Iowa, but why would losing Iowa not simply knock her down a peg, but make her "uncompetitive" going forward?

Every piece of electoral analysis Kingpoleon posts is illogical and incorrect. He's a troll.

I appreciate your opinion. If you have concerns as to my seriousness or credibility, you can speak to me. Feel free to PM me at any time.

It would prevent a Clinton-victory early. She has to win Iowa to remain competitive, correct? Well, if Biden makes it close, she will have to campaign heavily in Iowa. The last two weeks, Biden drops the pressure and kicks down the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the former, he places second and in the latter manages first.

After that, all candidates will focus on Nevada and Florida. Biden might want to let Sanders take Florida and thus focus his main efforts on winning Nevada, making Clinton split her time between the two.

Florida is two weeks after Super Tuesday this time.

Also, there's a good chance that (like in 2008) the South Carolina primary will be held on different days for the two parties, with the Democratic SC primary being held after Nevada.  That's still not settled though.

Also, why does Clinton have to win Iowa to remain competitive?  I don't think she'll lose Iowa, but why would losing Iowa not simply knock her down a peg, but make her "uncompetitive" going forward?

My apologies. I looked at the schedule after posting that. I'm sorry.

I probably overstated that, but losing Iowa again would have her supporters drop out much quicker than a close first. Besides which, the three states are all very well suited to each candidate.

[The Free North]

I don't think there is much overlap between true blooded Sanders supporters and Biden's base.

If anything Biden overlaps with Hillary ideologically.

[Crumpets]

I suspect Biden draws equally from Hillary and Bernie - some rust belt working-class people and blacks from Hillary and some "anybody but Hillary" people from Bernie.

[Famous Mortimer]

I suspect Biden draws equally from Hillary and Bernie - some rust belt working-class people and blacks from Hillary and some "anybody but Hillary" people from Bernie.

Even if he took equally from both, he would still be hurting Sanders more because Sanders has fewer supporters at this point. Hillary can afford to lose 10-15% and still be in the lead. Sanders would basically get knocked back to Kucinich levels.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Badly. The issue to consider is who is supporting Sanders, and most importantly, why?

If Biden gets in, it will be fascinating to see what happens to both Sanders and Hillary's numbers, but since my theory is at least 50% of Sanders' support is based on him not being Hillary, I'd expect Sanders overall to do worse, with a small hit to Hillary's numbers nation-wide.

[Mr. Morden]

Does Biden end up cutting a deal with Sanders to have their supporters back each other in Iowa in any precinct where they don't reach the 15% viability threshold?

If not, then he probably hurts Sanders.

[Famous Mortimer]

Biden and Clinton are ideologically the same. I don't see why Sanders would cut a deal with him unless Biden cuts hard left, which is possible, since there isn't much room right of Clinton to distinguish himself. Still, even if Biden does do that, I doubt he will do it enough to appease Sanders. He would have to come out in support of single payer at least. I think it's more likely he just runs on a Martin O'Malley type platform.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Clinton are ideologically the same. I don't see why Sanders would cut a deal with him unless Biden cuts hard left, which is possible, since there isn't much room right of Clinton to distinguish himself.

Edwards and Kucinich are pretty different ideologically, yet they made a similar deal in 2004.

The motivation would be to not be steamrolled by Clinton in Iowa.  If the pre-Iowa polls have Biden and Sanders at little more than ~20% each (and far behind Clinton), then there'll be an awful lot of precincts where one or the other of them doesn't make the 15% threshold, and that risks hurting them greatly and giving them a final result well below what their polling #s would indicate.  But if they cut a deal, that'll help keep them both above water, and avoid an embarrassingly poor showing.

That's not to say that they would make such a deal, but it would certainly be worth thinking about.

[Türkisblau]

For what it's worth, Biden voted for the Iraq War.

Are you aware that your sig screws up the entire page?

[Kingpoleon]

I suspect Biden draws equally from Hillary and Bernie - some rust belt working-class people and blacks from Hillary and some "anybody but Hillary" people from Bernie.

Even if he took equally from both, he would still be hurting Sanders more because Sanders has fewer supporters at this point. Hillary can afford to lose 10-15% and still be in the lead. Sanders would basically get knocked back to Kucinich levels.

I think (s)he meant that he might take equally. Say, ten percent of Sander's 30 percent, so three, and ten percent of Clinton's sixty percent, so, six.

I'd expect Sander's to jump forwards as Clinton Loyalty Supporters of the left flank see a challenged primary. After that, the three would be battling it out.

Likely Poll 1 Month Post-Biden:
Hillary Clinton - 27.9%
Joseph Biden - 27.1%
Bernie Sanders- 20.5%
Martin O'Malley - 9.3%
Jim Webb - 5.6%
Lincoln Chafee - 1.1%
Undecided - 4.3%
= 99.9%

- 0.1%

[dudeabides]

Joe Biden takes votes from Hillary Clinton, not Bernie Sanders. Sanders supporters are to the left of Obama even.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden is an establishment candidate and not a liberal, so he'd draw more heavily from Hillary. Of course there'll be a few anybody but Hillary voters who flock to him. He will hurt the inevitable argument as Hillary's support in the polls should drop to under 50% after he announces. That will hopefully lead to the DNC being being unable to ignore the repeated demands of debates from the candidates other than Hillary. Biden running might not help Sanders that much, and could possibly even hurt him, but I'm not too worried. Sanders isn't running a Tom Dewey campaign of trying to hold steady that Hillary is, so change isn't scary to him the way it is to her.

[Leinad]

Every piece of electoral analysis Kingpoleon posts is illogical and incorrect. He's a troll.

"Troll" is thrown around far too much here on the internet. Someone can be annoying or incorrect, but still be genuine and with no ill intent.

I don't think there is much overlap between true blooded Sanders supporters and Biden's base.

If anything Biden overlaps with Hillary ideologically.

THIS. Biden will get reluctant Hillary voters who aren't left enough to vote for Sanders, not to mention a few Hillary voters who simply like him more.

I think it's a false narrative to say that Biden will take more from Sanders than Hillary. Ideology is still important, it's not just Hillary vs. Not Hillary. So, I think that Biden might take a little of the anti-Clinton vote from Bernie, I think he'll still take most of his vote from her.

Now, what might be real is that #joementum will crush #berniementum. As in, Biden will take away Sanders' title of "Best-of-the-Rest," and thus a good bit of his claim to mainstream attention.

(A counterargument would be that Biden makes it more competitive, thus making the Democratic race more interesting and by extension making all of the Democrats more notable--high tide raising all boats and whatnot--but that's a pretty weak counterargument.)