How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

There's a difference between being more "conservative" and voting Republican.

[Famous Mortimer]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Bush has a chance of winning, but he'd be an underdog, because the negatives of the Bushes will be more significant than the negatives against the Clintons.  People think more of Bill Clinton than George W. Bush at this point, granting that they think more of Bill than of Hillary.

The base hates Clinton, but I am not sure that Jeb Bush would do much better than any other Republican amongst minorities.  He'll carry FL and improve over Obama with Cubans, and he may well improve amongst Texas Mexicans, but I doubt he'll make the kind of Hispanic inroads in NV and CO to significantly impact the Hispanic vote there, and he WON'T carry New Mexico.

But Bush could win.  He could well be the GOP nominee, and he well could beat Hillary Clinton.  Neither party has such an electoral college lock at this point to where it would take a miracle to win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

[Famous Mortimer]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

Not really. Why do you think Jeb would do worse than W among Hispanics? W's support for amnesty was mumbled because he didn't want to offend his party. Jeb is much more enthusiastic.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

Not really. Why do you think Jeb would do worse than W among Hispanics? W's support for amnesty was mumbled because he didn't want to offend his party. Jeb is much more enthusiastic.

It assumes Bush won't cave to the bases of his party. I have no confidence that he won't. Plus at this point, I think the Latino vote is more and more a Democratic constituency.

[Fuzzy Bear]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

Not really. Why do you think Jeb would do worse than W among Hispanics? W's support for amnesty was mumbled because he didn't want to offend his party. Jeb is much more enthusiastic.

There are two (2) Hispanic constituencies where Jeb would have an advantage over other GOP candidates.  One is the Florida Cuban community, which has been staunchly GOP in the past, but has sharply trended Democratic.  Bush could win many of them back.  The other group are Texas Mexicans, who gave strong support (by the standards of Mexican-American voters) to Bush 43 both times.  It remains to be seen how Jeb will do with Hispanics in CO and NV.

[Crumpets]

W got a much greater share of the Hispanic vote than Romney. Jeb is going to do at least as well as that, if not a little better. For that reason alone, Jeb will be a better candidate than Romney.

You are confident.

Not really. Why do you think Jeb would do worse than W among Hispanics? W's support for amnesty was mumbled because he didn't want to offend his party. Jeb is much more enthusiastic.

The 2012 election did some serious damage to the Hispanic perception of Republicans. Plus, we still have the whole primary season to go through, and just throwing a couple of "your views are offensive" lines at Donald Trump won't make up for the fact that everyone on that stage is going to be seen as part of the anti-immigration, anti-Latino posse. Jeb might do better among Latinos than other Republicans running, but he'll be extremely lucky to break 30% support in the general if he is nominated.

[Famous Mortimer]

2012 didn't do nearly as much damage as Democrats wish it did. I say most of the hit Republicans took was due to Romney coming across as anti-poor, rather than as anti-Hispanic. Romney never talked much about immigration and when he did, he was mealy mouthed as hell.

[m4567]

Far from an easy victory for Hillary, but I don't think Jeb can win unless another recession pops up.

[EliteLX]

I will admit he doesn't have the advantage, Hillary does, but still by not that drastic of margins.

It's honestly a 60/40 call, 45% for Jeb if he runs a killer campaign. I'm expecting him to watch his butt much much better than Romney/Ryan '12 did. Bush will do much stronger with Hispanic vote, increase Black vote further than McCain and Romney did by at least 2+ points.

It's going to be a hell of a damn run, but.. it's most certainly possible. That's if Bush is the nominee! Colorado, Florida, Ohio are most absoloutely within GOP's pickup reach for 2016 with a solid ticket/VP and a much smoother campaign than 2012 with cards played right. The rest of the battle states will be a fight to the death.

[heatmaster]

I am afraid Hillary's negatives are there to stay! She has high ratings in the untrustworthiness and dishonest stakes. She's not a likeable individual. She's politically speaking, she's no Bill Clinton - he was a brilliant retail politician and this factor overcame his negatives and the bad stuff, a likeable rogue. Hillary on the other hand will have to depend on the Democratic base. As campaigning goes, she's probably has positives. She won't set the house on fire the way Bill or Barack have. Jeb on the other hand is a good retail campaigner, he comes across as likeable, was a good Governor,  has a record of accomplishment to point to.  Yes the Bush brand name might be a negative right now, but that's in the prism of where there's a Trump-Walker-Rubio-Perry-Kasich-Cruz-Christie-Fiorina-Paul angle to use as comparison.  The field on the Republican side is pretty diverse. Primary voters are shopping.  However once the Republican nominee is chosen, I believe it will be Bush, if I'm wrong, then there will be different equations at play. However once it is between Bush and Clinton, it will be more of a Jeb vs. Hillary contest. She will have the machinery and the base, but so will Jeb. Hillary can't campaign about wages or income inequality on one hand and not explain her multi million dollar fortune or how she acquired it. Questions over Benghazi or her controversial tenure at State, the email issue will be like a albatross around her neck and the odour of influence peddling by the Clinton Foundation fundraising irregularities will continue to cloud her effectiveness. Jeb doesn't have such problems and whatever negatives he has, haven't surfaced and if they did, his opponents in the Republican field would be exploiting such shortcomings. It's the Independent vote which will decide the 2016 election and how Jeb & Hillary address the issues will determine the ultimate outcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary's path is similar to Jeb's path lock in 268 electors and win with NH; SW track. Now, the only one that can crack the Dem 268 electoral track is Susan Martinez, who would help Jeb win NM 5 electors.

Should Hilary pick Julian Castro; it is very hard to see Jeb winning.

[Free Bird]

Hilary's path is similar to Jeb's path lock in 268 electors and win with NH; SW track. Now, the only one that can crack the Dem 268 electoral track is Susan Martinez, who would help Jeb win NM 5 electors.

Should Hilary pick Julian Castro; it is very hard to see Jeb winning.

Did Romney win Wisconsin?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but Jeb & Hilary are competeting for the Latino vote. Which makes SW intriguing. Paul Ryan's stance on Medicare wasnt appealing, especially towards women, & women in states like WI rely on medicare or medicaid.

[Republican Michigander]

Jeb makes it tougher because Hillary can run this as Bush-Clinton/Gore III.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress.  Also, the key year is 1992, and people born in 1990 and 1991 (possibly the two most Democratic birth years) were still in the 18-24 group in 2014.  I expect the vote to be close to even in 2016 with 18-24s (born Nov. 1991 to Nov. 1998).

[Mehmentum]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress. 

I am well aware of that thread, and I'm saying here what I posted on there.

The problem with that Virginia race, was that a Libertarian candidate got 15% of the young vote.
While you could have made the argument that those voters would prefer the Republican to the Democrat, 2014 exit polls for Virginia Senate race show otherwise.  Warner beat Gillespie by 13 points among the 18 - 24 age group, compared to 11 points for the entire 18 - 29 age group.  By your logic, the 18 - 24 age group should be even more Republican in 2014 than it was in 2013, we don't see that.

While some Harvard poll may have said that 18 - 24 year olds preferred a Republican congress in the 2014 midterms, it appears to be wrong: 18-24 year olds ended up voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in 2014.  This simple date point makes it very hard for you to make any headway (at least until we get some detailed 2016 polling on the topic).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress. 

I am well aware of that thread, and I'm saying here what I posted on there.

The problem with that Virginia race, was that a Libertarian candidate got 15% of the young vote.
While you could have made the argument that those voters would prefer the Republican to the Democrat, 2014 exit polls for Virginia Senate race show otherwise.  Warner beat Gillespie by 13 points among the 18 - 24 age group, compared to 11 points for the entire 18 - 29 age group.  By your logic, the 18 - 24 age group should be even more Republican in 2014 than it was in 2013, we don't see that.

While some Harvard poll may have said that 18 - 24 year olds preferred a Republican congress in the 2014 midterms, it appears to be wrong: 18-24 year olds ended up voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in 2014.  This simple date point makes it very hard for you to make any headway (at least until we get some detailed 2016 polling on the topic).

Note that the FOX exit poll confirms that 18-24 year olds were slightly more Republican than 25-29 year olds, despite having to deal with the 1990-1991 crowd still, who won't be an "issue" for 18-24 in 2016.  Look for a major gap between 18-24 and 25-30 in this next cycle.

[Mehmentum]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress. 

I am well aware of that thread, and I'm saying here what I posted on there.

The problem with that Virginia race, was that a Libertarian candidate got 15% of the young vote.
While you could have made the argument that those voters would prefer the Republican to the Democrat, 2014 exit polls for Virginia Senate race show otherwise.  Warner beat Gillespie by 13 points among the 18 - 24 age group, compared to 11 points for the entire 18 - 29 age group.  By your logic, the 18 - 24 age group should be even more Republican in 2014 than it was in 2013, we don't see that.

While some Harvard poll may have said that 18 - 24 year olds preferred a Republican congress in the 2014 midterms, it appears to be wrong: 18-24 year olds ended up voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in 2014.  This simple date point makes it very hard for you to make any headway (at least until we get some detailed 2016 polling on the topic).

Note that the FOX exit poll confirms that 18-24 year olds were slightly more Republican than 25-29 year olds, despite having to deal with the 1990-1991 crowd still, who won't be an "issue" for 18-24 in 2016.  Look for a major gap between 18-24 and 25-30 in this next cycle.

"Slightly More Republican"
18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican

But whatever makes you feel better.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What makes you think that the 2016 election will be a referndum on the Bush and Clinton presidencies? Also, DeadPrez, Bush would do better with minorities than Romney. He will rally the base because the base hates Clinton. If you think Bush has a 0% chance of winning, you're wrong.  

Additionally, young voters will be more Republican in 2016 than 2012 or 2008.  How much will be the question, but every poll shows that the current 18 year olds are much more conservative than those 5 or 10 years ago (someone 18 on Election Day would have potentially only been 9 during the "hope and change" primary).

Could you link us to some of these polls?

2014 Exit polls show that 18 - 24 year olds voted the same as the 25-29 age group, both 16 - 17 points more Democratic than the nation.  If there is a conservative young generation, they weren't of voting age in 2014.

We have had a whole thread on it.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215270.0

Also, look at the 2013 VA Gubernatorial race, where Cuccinelli actually won young voters despite losing.  Similar things occured in many key races last year.  A October Harvard poll actually indicated a majority of 18-24 year olds preferring a Republican Congress. 

I am well aware of that thread, and I'm saying here what I posted on there.

The problem with that Virginia race, was that a Libertarian candidate got 15% of the young vote.
While you could have made the argument that those voters would prefer the Republican to the Democrat, 2014 exit polls for Virginia Senate race show otherwise.  Warner beat Gillespie by 13 points among the 18 - 24 age group, compared to 11 points for the entire 18 - 29 age group.  By your logic, the 18 - 24 age group should be even more Republican in 2014 than it was in 2013, we don't see that.

While some Harvard poll may have said that 18 - 24 year olds preferred a Republican congress in the 2014 midterms, it appears to be wrong: 18-24 year olds ended up voting overwhelmingly for Democrats in 2014.  This simple date point makes it very hard for you to make any headway (at least until we get some detailed 2016 polling on the topic).

Note that the FOX exit poll confirms that 18-24 year olds were slightly more Republican than 25-29 year olds, despite having to deal with the 1990-1991 crowd still, who won't be an "issue" for 18-24 in 2016.  Look for a major gap between 18-24 and 25-30 in this next cycle.

"Slightly More Republican"
18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican

But whatever makes you feel better.

I'd also strongly warn against basing anything on 2014 turnout...

[heatmaster]

The more you learn about the email issue and the latest, that Hillary is on the knife edge of committing perjury or being in contempt of court, if she doesn't either sign the affidavit or sign it truthfully, she and two of her minions have been compelled to do so by a federal judge,  who was appointed by her husband. Or the likelihood she will be requested to produce the server in court. These developments make it more likely Joe Biden gets in. He will mop up the Sanders vote and those who were originally committed to Hillary, will eagerly jump ship if there is an alternative.  Obama will be very happy if this happens. Personally I'd prefer Hillary to stay in. Her problems are the Republicans opportunity, the drip drip of this email issue is a gift that keeps on giving. Jeb Bush looks like a winner everyday with Hillary in the bind she's in. Who says there isn't a god in his heaven😊

[President Johnson]

Out of any GOP contender, he has the best chances of winning.

Hillary is more likely to win, but this is possible path to victory:

275 - 263

Iowa and Nevada might also be Republican; but the scenario above is already enough. But it's not easy; one swing state less and Hillary has won.

[tgards79]

Basically impossible.  The only way is some major Hillary revelation between the primaries and the general.  Which is always possible and some journalist will try to find and hold it.