2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Hi, I am starting a thread for Prediction for the upcoming Canadian Federal Election on October 19th. This thread is meant for a place for users to submit and discuss predictions throughout the Campaign, I will explain the contest part below for the federal Level or riding level. Once we get closer to election day I will tabulate the predictions and come up with an offrcial median predictions.
 you may choose what predictions to make:
Prediction Questions:Who wins PV:
Who wins most Seats:

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl-
Central Nova-
Laurier—Sainte-Marie-
Mount Royal-
Spadina—Fort York-
Eglinton—Lawrence-
Beaches—East York-
Toronto Centre-
Mississauga—Malton-
Sudbury-
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa-
Regina—Lewvan-
Lethbridge-
Edmonton Centre-
Edmonton Griesbach-
St. Albert—Edmonton-
Calgary Centre-
Delta-
South Surrey—White Rock-
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam-
North Vancouver-
Vancouver South-
Vancouver Granville-
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country-
North Island—Powell River-
Victoria-

Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if yoy feel their will not be please state that.


You May Submit more then once, please however State this is your Edited Prediction.

A point is Awarded for each correct Riding prediction, 3 points for PP, 5 for most Seats, an Additional 15 points if you get all your battleground Ridings correct.

[Krago]

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[King of Kensington]

Do Accurate Predictions get greater weight if called earlier in the Campaign.  Otherwise it seems silly to put on up now.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Yes, This is how the distribution of points works.

For each correct Prediction, made the normal amount of points is times by the week were in, as were in the 11th week  (note I am counting the (weeks from 11-1)predictions are multiplied by 11.  By 10 in the tenth week, 9 in the 9th week and so on. 

Please note that for each individual you make, I will only be takining the newest of your predictions. However you may have parts of your prediction made on diffrent weeks.

I should have noted above I will allow for bonous points, for users to project any pickups from pany of the non battel ground ridings and from parties or Indipendent  other then the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals.  +1 point per pickup, multiplied by what week we are in that you projected them in.

[Harry Hayfield]

Who wins most Seats: New Democrats (144)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- NDP HOLD
Central Nova- Con HOLD
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP HOLD
Mount Royal- Lib HOLD
Spadina—Fort York- NDP HOLD
Eglinton—Lawrence- Lib GAIN from Con
Beaches—East York- NDP HOLD
Toronto Centre- Lib HOLD
Mississauga—Malton- Lib GAIN from Con
Sudbury- NDP HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Con HOLD
Regina—Lewvan- NDP HOLD
Lethbridge- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Centre- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP GAIN from Con
St. Albert—Edmonton- Con HOLD
Calgary Centre- Con HOLD
Delta- NDP GAIN from Con
South Surrey—White Rock- Con HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP GAIN from Con
North Vancouver- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver South- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver Granville- Lib GAIN from Con
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Con HOLD
North Island—Powell River- NDP GAIN from Con
Victoria- NDP HOLD

[Boston Bread]

I'll make a prediction assuming things remain fairly stable over the rest of the campaign. Of course there's still time for there to be a wild swing rendering my prediction useless.

Who wins most seats: NDP
Who wins PV: NDP

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- NDP
Central Nova- CPC
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP
Mount Royal-  LPC
Spadina—Fort York- NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence-  LPC
Beaches—East York- NDP
Toronto Centre-  LPC
Mississauga—Malton- LPC
Sudbury- NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- CPC
Regina—Lewvan- NDP
Lethbridge- NDP
Edmonton Centre- NDP
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton- CPC
Calgary Centre- CPC
Delta- LPC
South Surrey—White Rock- CPC
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP
North Vancouver- LPC
Vancouver South- LPC
Vancouver Granville- NDP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- LPC
North Island—Powell River- NDP
Victoria- NDP

Hardest one was Granville. Better to trust the riding poll (NDP lead) than the proportional swing models (LPC lead), IMO.

Some other NDP pickups:
Kenora
Sault Ste Marie
Oshawa
Saskatoon-Grasswood
Essex

[136or142]

I can't see anybody but the Conservatives winning Delta.  The problem for the opposition parties is the make up of the riding.

There are 3 distinct areas of Delta: North Delta and the South Delta areas of Ladner and Tsawwassen. 

North Delta was part of the Surrey riding that elected New Democrat Jinny Simms in the last election.  It is very competitive provincially having elected New Democrat Norm Lortie from 1991-1996 and Guy Gentner from 2005-2013.  Lortie was defeated in 1996 while Gentner retired.  Gentner likely benefited from his personal popularity (though I never thought highly of him, for what that's worth) based on his 'maverick status' and his creativity while on City Council (he was the first municipal politician, in Canada at least, to come up with the Tour de... bike races, with the Tour de Delta.)

The provincial NDP lost North Delta in 2013 to the Provincial Liberals by, I believe less than 2%.  The Federal Liberals likely don't have a lot of strength in North Delta.

South Delta, both Ladner and Tsawwassen is completely different. One of those two communities is known locally as "White Rhodesia" for its right wing politics and its number of churches. The NDP is basically non existent in South Delta and the federal Liberals are the main opposition party there. 

So, unless the anti Conservative vote can rally behind one candidate, the Conservatives should easily come up the middle.  The Liberals may have a slight upper hand here though, as to the degree that anybody pays attention to the local candidate these days the NDP candidate is a rather weak recent university teaching assistant.  He seems to be quite smart, but as far as I know he was completely unknown in the riding.

The Liberal candidate, Carla Qualtrough, is likely higher profile, having Federal Liberal Connections and possibly provincial Liberal connections as well and she has a compelling personal story (she's legally blind and has competed athletically), but she ran poorly running for school trustee in the 2014 municipal elections.  By contrast, the 2011 NDP  federal candidate in the former riding of Richmond East-South Delta (or something like that) Nick Slater got nearly twice the votes she did running for Delta School Board in the 2014 municipal election.  Neither got elected, but I believe Slater missed out on the final position by under 200 votes, which is actually a pretty good result for a first time municipal candidate.

[Boston Bread]

Thanks for the analysis, but no seat where the CPC got less than 50% in 2011 in BC should be considered safe for them. They've dropped too far in the polls. A lot that prior CPC vote could be going LPC, in which case there's no reason to be concerned about a split.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll play. Liberals win the most seats.

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal (gain)
Central Nova- Liberal (gain)
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP (hold)
Mount Royal- Liberal (hold)
Spadina—Fort York- NDP (gain from by-election)
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal (gain)
Beaches—East York- NDP (hold)
Toronto Centre- Liberal (hold)
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal (gain)
Sudbury- NDP (hold)
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative (hold)
Regina—Lewvan- NDP (notional hold)
Lethbridge- Conservative (hold)
Edmonton Centre- Conservative (hold)
Edmonton Griesbach- Conservative (hold)
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative (hold)
Calgary Centre- Conservative (hold)
Delta- Conservative (hold)
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative (hold)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative (hold)
North Vancouver- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver South- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver Granville- Liberal (gain)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal (gain)
North Island—Powell River- NDP (gain)
Victoria- NDP (hold)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some more interesting ridings for you guys to guess:

Atlantic Canada
- Egmont
- Cumberland—Colchester
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
- South Shore—St. Margarets
- West Nova
- Acadie—Bathurst
- Fredericton
- Miramichi—Grand Lake
- Saint John—Rothesay

Quebec
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville
- Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
- Brome—Missisquoi
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
- Honoré-Mercier
- Lac-Saint-Jean
- Louis-Saint-Laurent
- Mégantic—L'Érable
- Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
- Pierrefonds—Dollard
- Pontiac
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Ontario
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
- Bay of Quinte
- Brantford—Brant
- Brampton Centre
- Brampton East
- Brampton North
- Burlington
- Cambridge
- Essex
- Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
- Guelph
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
- Kenora
- Kitchener Centre
- Kitchener South—Hespeler
- London North Centre
- London West
- Markham—Stouffville
- Niagara Falls
- Newmarket—Aurora
- Oakville
- Orléans
- Oshawa
- Ottawa West—Nepean
- Peterborough—Kawartha
- Sarnia—Lambton
- Sault Ste. Marie
- Scarborough North
- Scarborough Southwest
- St. Catharines
- Thunder Bay—Superior North
- University—Rosedale
- Vaughan—Woodbridge
- Waterloo
- York Centre
- York South—Weston


Prairies
- Elmwood—Transcona
- Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
- Winnipeg South
- Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
- Saskatoon—Grasswood
- Saskatoon—University
- Calgary Skyview
- Edmonton Manning


British Columbia/Territories
- Burnaby North—Seymour
- Cariboo—Prince George
- Fleetwood—Port Kells
- Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
- Kootenay—Columbia
- Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
- Richmond Centre
- Steveston—Richmond East
- Surrey—Newton
- Nunavut
- Yukon

[DL]

Who wins most Seats: New Democrats (124)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- NDP HOLD
Central Nova- Con HOLD
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP HOLD
Mount Royal- Lib HOLD
Spadina—Fort York- NDP HOLD
Eglinton—Lawrence- Lib GAIN from Con
Beaches—East York- NDP HOLD
Toronto Centre- NDP GAIN from Lib
Mississauga—Malton- Lib GAIN from Con
Sudbury- NDP HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Con HOLD
Regina—Lewvan- NDP HOLD
Lethbridge- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Centre- NDP GAIN from Con
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP GAIN from Con
St. Albert—Edmonton- Con HOLD
Calgary Centre- Con HOLD
Delta- Con HOLD
South Surrey—White Rock- Con HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP GAIN from Con
North Vancouver- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver South- Lib GAIN from Con
Vancouver Granville- NDP GAIN from Con
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country-  Lib GAIN from Con
North Island—Powell River- NDP GAIN from Con
Victoria- NDP HOLD

I expect the NDP to pick up South Shore St. Margaret's in NS and also to gain the following seats in Quebec: Ahuntsic, Avignon-Mitis etc..., Levis-Lotbiniere, Richmond-Arthabaska and lose Pierrefonds Dollard and Honore Mercier to the Liberals.

I expect that in Ontario the NDP will gain the following Conservative seats: Kenora, Sault Ste. Marie, Oshawa, Essex, London West, Waterloo, Kitchener Centre, Sarnia-Lambton,

[Hatman 🍁]

your predictions are very predictable

[Lotuslander]

Delta- Conservative (hold)
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative (hold)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative (hold)
North Vancouver- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver South- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver Granville- Liberal (gain)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal (gain)
North Island—Powell River- NDP (gain)
Victoria- NDP (hold)

I will agree with that with the exception of the Vancouver Island seats of NIPR and Victoria. The Greens are already winning the "lawn sign" war in Victoria. More importantly, the Green surge on Vancouver Island is quite palpable.

Just a few days ago on Tuesday night, September 8, the Greens held a rally in the Vancouver Island riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Over 1,000 showed up and its was standing room only. Blows me away. Akin to an unstoppable speeding freight train:





Not other party can achieve this feat.

[Boston Bread]

That's a lot of seats Hatman, I'll go over them one section at a time. And I'll try to explain each prediction a bit.

- Egmont LPC
Liberals should be handily leading in PEI.
- Cumberland—Colchester LPC
Casey (LPC, former Conservative) has the rare distinction of being personally popular to win as an indie. So he should take it.
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour NDP
Provincially, the latest CRA poll showed the Libs at 50. Yet the NDP could win a by-election against the still-popular liberals here. I think this seat can escape the red tide.
- South Shore—St. Margarets NDP
Conservatives have dropped to far in the Atlantic to be competitive here.
- West Nova LPC
Don't think this seat is competitive. Safe LPC gain.
- Acadie—Bathurst NDP
This seat probably will see one of the largest NDP drops in the country, without Godin. But even then the NDP can win.
- Fredericton LPC
I'm going by the riding poll on this one. Still I'd say all 3 parties are competitive here.
- Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC
No clue what it's like on the ground there, so I'll defer to my model which suggests a narrow LPC win over the CPC based on a proportional swing.
- Saint John—Rothesay NDP
I think (could be wrong) this covers a lot of the territory the NB NDP targeted, but wound up losing all their targets by about 10 points to PCs. Nonetheless it shows that the Liberals aren't strong here and that a weaker than usual Conservative vote would allow an NDP win.

Wild card: Liberals are currently favoured. But Charlottetown has a chance of going NDP, if the CRA poll from May which showed the NDP at 28% in PEI holds true.

Overall Atlantic prediction:
4 CPC (3 in NB, 1 in NS)
8 NDP (2 in NB, 4 in NS, 2 in NFLD)
20 LPC

I'd estimate the popular vote in the Atlantic at 42-31-23-4.

[Hatman 🍁]

Delta- Conservative (hold)
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative (hold)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative (hold)
North Vancouver- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver South- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver Granville- Liberal (gain)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal (gain)
North Island—Powell River- NDP (gain)
Victoria- NDP (hold)

I will agree with that with the exception of the Vancouver Island seats of NIPR and Victoria. The Greens are already winning the "lawn sign" war in Victoria. More importantly, the Green surge on Vancouver Island is quite palpable.

Just a few days ago on Tuesday night, September 8, the Greens held a rally in the Vancouver Island riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Over 1,000 showed up and its was standing room only. Blows me away. Akin to an unstoppable speeding freight train:





Not other party can achieve this feat.

Who do you think will win North Island-Powell River? The Tories?

The Greens will likely finish second in Victoria. They are putting all of their efforts into the riding, which is why they're winning the sign war.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

[Boston Bread]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

Does that mean much? The NS NDP already reached its low popularity in 2011, yet the Liberals were a distant third there.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

Does that mean much? The NS NDP already reached its low popularity in 2011, yet the Liberals were a distant third there.

No, the NSNDP was polling in mid to high 30s in the Spring of 2011, while the last poll has them at 27%. The NS Liberals have gone from 35% then to 50% now.

The riding is a traditionally Red Tory riding, which means it could go Liberal. The provincial Liberals did pick up a couple seats in 2013, after all.

Interestingly, the riding has been an NDP target for quite a few elections, but they have never won it.

[Boston Bread]

I see I was wrong about the NS NDP support in 2011. But for the LPC to win it they'd need a big over performance, and I don't see the provincial election result to be enough of a reason for that. We'll have to disagree here.

[politicallefty]

your predictions are very predictable

I can't or won't make predictions at this point, but do you really believe Linda Duncan will be the only non-Conservative MP from Alberta?

And I know your earlier post wasn't meant to do so, but I have a particular dislike of polls that lump Alberta in with Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

[Boston Bread]

Moving over to QC,
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville NDP
I'll give Mourani the benefit of the doubt that she is personally popular enough to prevent a Liberal victory here, as she won re-election as a Bloquist in 2011.
- Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia NDP
I think the NDP is doing really well enough among soft nationalists to eat up enough Bloc voters to prevent the LPC from winning here. But if I'm wrong, it could be a 4-way race! (LPC/NDP/Bloc/F&D)
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel NDP
- Brome—Missisquoi NDP
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert NDP
Some voted strategically for LPC to keep out Bloc, not foreseeing the coming NDP sweep. Some will vote NDP this time.
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles NDP
- Honoré-Mercier LPC
- Lac-Saint-Jean CPC
- Louis-Saint-Laurent NDP
- Mégantic—L'Érable CPC
- Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup NDP
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC
- Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC
- Pontiac NDP
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier NDP

I don't know enough about QC politics to defend every one of my decisions here, but basically:
- I expect the Bloc to be wiped. This leaves the NDP as the default in Francophone ridings.
- Remaining CPC strongholds look tough to crack, but I don't think they'll make gains.
- I don't believe the hype about Trudeau, Garneau, et al. being vulnerable. I think all Liberal incumbents are safe. A few other Montreal gains are in store for them, too.

Seats: 64-10-4
Popular vote: 47-19-15-15-3

[Hatman 🍁]

your predictions are very predictable

I can't or won't make predictions at this point, but do you really believe Linda Duncan will be the only non-Conservative MP from Alberta?

I am torn right now, but my hypothesis is that the NDP honeymoon is over in Alberta, and will effect the federal party's chances there. But I reserve the right to change my predictions in those seats

[Boston Bread]

If the ABNDP can still get 26% in a place like Foothills, Edmonton (and Lethbridge) should still be a complete lock for them. That's all the federal NDP should ever need from Alberta.

[Vosem]

If the ABNDP can still get 26% in a place like Foothills, Edmonton (and Lethbridge) should still be a complete lock for them. That's all the federal NDP should ever need from Alberta.

I don't think voting for Notley translates quite so simply into voting for Mulcair.

[DL]

If even just half of the people who voted Alberta NDP in May go on to vote for the federal NDP in October - the NDP would likely gain 3 or 4 seats in Edmonton and likely Lethbridge too