2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- LIB
Central Nova- CON
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- BQ
Mount Royal-LIB
Spadina—Fort York- NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence-CON
Beaches—East York- NDP
Toronto Centre- LIB
Mississauga—Malton- LIB
Sudbury- NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- CON
Regina—Lewvan- NDP
Lethbridge- CON
Edmonton Centre- NDP
Edmonton Griesbach- CON
St. Albert—Edmonton- CON
Calgary Centre- CON
Delta- CON
South Surrey—White Rock- CON
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP
North Vancouver- CON
Vancouver South- LIB
Vancouver Granville- LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- CON
North Island—Powell River- NDP
Victoria- NDP

[Vosem]

Many of the predictions made in this thread just a few weeks ago look very antiquated. Oh, Canada. These will probably be out of date in a week, too, but here are mine, from OP's list:

St. John's South-Mount Pearl: LIB
Central Nova: LIB
Laurier-Sainte Marie: BQ
Mount Royal: LIB
Spadina-Fort York: LIB
Eglinton-Lawrence: LIB
Beaches-East York: LIB
Toronto Centre: LIB
Mississauga-Malton: LIB
Sudbury: NDP
Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa: CON
Regina-Lewvan: NDP
Lethbridge: CON
Edmonton Centre: LIB
Edmonton Griesbach: CON
St. Albert-Edmonton: IND
Calgary Centre: LIB
Delta: LIB
South Surrey-White Rock: LIB
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam: CON
North Vancouver: LIB
Vancouver South: LIB
Vancouver Granville: LIB
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: LIB
North Island-Powell River: NDP
Victoria: GRN

[Thomas D]

I don't know enough to do Ridings.

LIB-130

CON-120

NDP- 84

BLC-3

GRE-1

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Some vague predictions:

Bloc will have no seats at all. The NDP will sweep the Francophone risings they won last time and keep the Quebec City ridings.

The Tories and NDP alike will be obliterated in the Atantic, reduced to NB Southwest for the former and St. John's East for the latter.

Liberals sweep through GTA, and get a better result in Ontario than Wynne's 2014 score.

Winnipeg will be deep red.

[2952-0-0]

St. John's South-Mount Pearl: LIB
Central Nova: LIB
Laurier-Sainte Marie: NDP
Mount Royal: LIB
Spadina-Fort York: LIB
Eglinton-Lawrence: LIB
Beaches-East York: LIB
Toronto Centre: LIB
Mississauga-Malton: LIB
Sudbury: NDP
Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa: CON
Regina-Lewvan: NDP
Lethbridge: CON
Edmonton Centre: LIB
Edmonton Griesbach: CON
St. Albert-Edmonton: CON
Calgary Centre: LIB
Delta: LIB
South Surrey-White Rock: LIB
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam: CON
North Vancouver: LIB
Vancouver South: LIB
Vancouver Granville: LIB
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: LIB
North Island-Powell River: NDP
Victoria: GRN

Bonus predictions:
1) Several rural Ontario seats turn red, for the first time since 2004
2) Mulcair comes worryingly close to losing his own seat
3) NDP caucus becomes even more majority Francophone
4) On election night, Harper announces his intention to stay on as opposition leader; whether he is allowed to is another matter

Atlantic: Lib 55% NDP 21% Con 21% Grn 3%; Lib 27 NDP 3 Con 2
Quebec: Lib 30% NDP 28% Bloc 22% Con 20%; NDP 39 Lib 27 Bloc 2 Con 10
Ontario: Lib 46% Con 32% NDP 18% Grn 4%; Lib 71 Con 34 NDP 16
Man/Sask: Con 41% Lib 33% NDP 23% Grn 2%; Con 16 NDP 6 Lib 6
Alberta: Con 52% Lib 25% NDP 16%; Con 27 Lib 5 NDP 2
BC: Lib 31% NDP 30% Con 29% Grn 10%; Lib 14 NDP 12 Con 14 Grn 2
Libs take Yukon and Nunavut, NDP holds NWT

New Parliament:
152 103 79 2 2

[Talleyrand]

Don't know enough to make specific riding predictions, but I'm going with 159 Conservatives, 119 Liberals, 53 NDP, 5 Bloc, and 2 Green. I'll also (boldly?) guess Mulcair narrowly loses his seat.

[jaichind]

CPC   133
LPC   126
NDP    71
BQ       7
GRN     1

[BaconBacon96]

Liberal- 138
Tory- 116
NDP- 82
Bloc- 1
Green- 1

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I predict that come election day whatever soft Dippers remain will bolt back to the red door from whence they came in order to ensure Harper is defeated, giving Trudeau II: Electric Boogaloo a very narrow majority. Or I could be completely wrong, that's an option too.

LPC - 171
CPC - 104
NDP - 59
Bloc - 3
Green - 1

[Thomas D]

CPC   133
LPC   126
NDP    71
BQ       7
GRN     1

This would be fun.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Liberals: 150
Conservatives: 125
NDP: 60
BQ: 2
Green: 1

[Harry Hayfield]

Who wins PV: Liberals (36%)
Who wins most Seats: Liberals (134)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal GAIN
Central Nova- Conservative HOLD
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- New Democrat HOLD
Mount Royal- Liberal HOLD
Spadina—Fort York- Liberal GAIN
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal GAIN
Beaches—East York- Liberal GAIN
Toronto Centre- Liberal HOLD
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal GAIN
Sudbury- New Democrat HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative HOLD
Regina—Lewvan- Conservative GAIN
Lethbridge- Conservative HOLD
Edmonton Centre- Liberal GAIN
Edmonton Griesbach- Conservative HOLD
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative HOLD
Calgary Centre- Conservative HOLD
Delta- Conservative HOLD
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative HOLD
North Vancouver- Liberal GAIN
Vancouver South- Liberal GAIN
Vancouver Granville- Liberal GAIN
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal GAIN
North Island—Powell River- Conservative HOLD
Victoria- New Democrat HOLD

Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if yoy feel their will not be please state that.

Liberal GAINS: Ajax, Alfred-Pellan, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Avalon, Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapedia
Conservative GAINS: Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, Regina—Lewvan, Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca

[King of Kensington]

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal
Central Nova- Liberal
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP
Mount Royal- Liberal
Spadina—Fort York- Liberal
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal
Beaches—East York- Liberal
Toronto Centre- Liberal
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal
Sudbury- NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative
Regina—Lewvan- NDP
Lethbridge- Conservative
Edmonton Centre- Liberal (wild guess, probably "should" be Conservative)
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative
Calgary Centre- Liberal
Delta- Conservative
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP
North Vancouver- Liberal
Vancouver South- Liberal
Vancouver Granville- Liberal
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal
North Island—Powell River- NDP
Victoria- NDP

Some pickups:

Liberals - LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, Pontiac, Burlington, Sault Ste. Marie, Fleetwood-Port Kells

Conservatives - Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Louis Saint Laurent, Beauport-Cote de Beaupre

NDP - Essex

[VPH]

LIB: 132
CPC: 115
NDP: 85
BQ: 5
Green: 1

[King of Kensington]

Liberals  134
Conservatives  112
NDP  87
Bloc  4
Greens  1

[DC Al Fine]

Just going with round numbers:

Lib: 135
Con: 125
NDP: 70
Bloc: 7
Green: 1

And PV:
Lib: 35%
Con: 32%
NDP: 24%
Bloc: 5%
Green: 4%

[Zuza]

Liberals: 150
Conservatives: 120
NDP: 63
BQ: 4
Greens: 1

[Boston Bread]

PV:
35% Liberal
31% Conservative
24% NDP
5% Bloc
4% Green

Seats:
Liberals 139
Conservatives 108
NDP 87
Bloc 3
Green 1

I think the NDP will pull a little over 30% in QC and still get 40-50 seats. In BC I expect the NDP to more or less tie the Conservatives in seats, with a 3-way in the popular vote and the Liberals not winning as many seats. In Ontario the Grits get 70 seats, while Conservatives only win 35.

[Panhandle Progressive]

My personal best guesstimate:

Lib: 145
Con: 120
NDP: 68
Others: 5

And PV:
Lib: 42%
Con: 30%
NDP: 20%
Others: 8%

[King of Kensington]

Liberals  134
Conservatives  112
NDP  87
Bloc  4
Greens  1

Atlantic

Liberals  25
Conservatives  4
NDP  3

Quebec

NDP  43
Liberals  20
Conservatives  11
Bloc  4

Ontario

Liberals  68
Conservatives  36
NDP  17

Prairies

Conservatives  46
Liberals  10
NDP  6

BC

NDP  16
Conservatives  15
Liberals  10
Greens  1

The North

Liberals  2
NDP  1

ETA: Small revision as I forgot to change 1 Montreal area seat from NDP to Liberal.  So my prediction is:

Liberals  135
Conservatives  112
NDP  86
BQ  4
Greens  1

[Boston Bread]

Liberals  134
Conservatives  112
NDP  87
Bloc  4
Greens  1

Our predictions are very similar... your regional seat spreads are more or less the same as what I expect as well.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Prediction Questions:Who wins PV: Liberals 35% Con 30% NDP 27% BQ5% Green 2%  Other 1%
Who wins most Seats:Lib 141 Con 100 NDP 91 BQ 4 Green 2

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl-LIB
Central Nova-CON
Laurier—Sainte-Marie-BQ
Mount Royal-LIB
Spadina—Fort York- NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence-LIB
Beaches—East York-NDP
Toronto Centre-LIB
Mississauga—Malton-LIB
Sudbury-NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa-CON
Regina—Lewvan-NDP
Lethbridge-CON
Edmonton Centre-NDP
Edmonton Griesbach-NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton-CON
Calgary Centre-CON
Delta-CON
South Surrey—White Rock-CON
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam-NDP
North Vancouver-LIB
Vancouver South-LIB
Vancouver Granville-LIB
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country-LIB
North Island—Powell River-NDP
Victoria-GREEN

Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if you feel their will not be please state that.

[toaster]

Predictions for tomorrow night:

Liberals  130
Conservatives  115
NDP  88
Greens  3 (May's seat, and Victoria & Thunder Bay - Superior North)
Bloc  2

[Njall]

Prediction Questions:Who wins PV: Liberals (~35%)
Who wins most Seats: Liberals (~135 seats)

Battle Ground Seats:
St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal
Central Nova- Liberal
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP
Mount Royal- Liberal
Spadina—Fort York- Liberal
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal
Beaches—East York- Liberal
Toronto Centre- Liberal
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal
Sudbury- NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative
Regina—Lewvan- NDP
Lethbridge- Conservative
Edmonton Centre- Liberal
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative
Calgary Centre- Liberal
Delta- Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP
North Vancouver- Liberal
Vancouver South- Liberal
Vancouver Granville- Liberal
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal
North Island—Powell River- NDP
Victoria- NDP

Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if yoy feel their will not be please state that.

[King of Kensington]

Some other predictions - curious to hear those of others

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour NS  (Liberal)
Acadie-Bathurst NB (Liberal)
Avignon-La Mitis-Matan-Matapedia QC (Liberal but really no clue)
Pontiac QC (Liberal)
Laval-Les-Iles QC (Liberal)
LaSalle-Emard-Verdun QC (Liberal)
Bay of Quinte ON (Conservative)
Northumberland-Peterborough South ON (Conservative)
Whitby ON (Liberal)
Newmarket-Aurora ON (Liberal)
University-Rosedale ON (Liberal)
Parkdale-High Park ON (NDP)
St. Catharines ON (Liberal)
Brantford-Brant ON (Liberal)
Essex ON (NDP)
Sault Ste. Marie ON (Liberal)
Elmwood-Transcona MB (Conservative)
Saskatoon-Grasswood SK (Conservative)
Saskatoon-University SK (Conservative)
Calgary Centre AB (Liberal)
Calgary Confederation AB (Liberal)
Edmonton Centre AB (Liberal)
Edmonton-Mill Woods AB (Liberal)
Cariboo-Prince George BC (Conservative)
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge BC (Conservative)
Steveston-Richmond East BC (Liberal)
Delta BC (Conservative)