2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

[Foucaulf]

PV Winner: Conservative (34%)
Seat winner: Liberal (125-135)

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- LIBERAL GAIN
Central Nova - LIBERAL GAIN
Laurier—Sainte-Marie - NDP HOLD
Mount Royal- LIBERAL HOLD
Spadina—Fort York - NDP GAIN
Eglinton—Lawrence - LIBERAL HOLD
Beaches—East York - LIBERAL GAIN
Toronto Centre - LIBERAL HOLD
Mississauga—Malton - LIBERAL GAIN
Sudbury - NDP HOLD
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa - CON HOLD
Regina—Lewvan - NDP HOLD
Lethbridge - CON HOLD
Edmonton Centre - CON HOLD
Edmonton Griesbach - CON HOLD
St. Albert—Edmonton - CON HOLD
Calgary Centre - LIB GAIN
Delta - CON HOLD
South Surrey—White Rock - CON HOLD
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam - CON HOLD
North Vancouver - CON HOLD
Vancouver South - LIB GAIN
Vancouver Granville - NDP GAIN
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country - CON HOLD
North Island—Powell River - NDP GAIN
Victoria - NDP HOLD


Final Section Please list up to  five pickups for each major Party other then the ones listed, if yoy feel their will not be please state that.

Liberal - Winnipeg South, Ajax, Surrey-Newton, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Brampton South
NDP - Port Moody - Coquitlam, two other interior BC ridings (!)
Conservative - Louis-St-Laurent, Burnaby North-Seymour.

[136or142]

Riding by Riding predictions

Atlantic
New Foundland and Labrador. 6 Liberal 1 N.D.P
1.Avalon, Liberal
2.Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Liberal
3.Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Liberal
4.Labrador, Liberal
5.Long Range Mountains, Liberal
6.St John's East, N.D.P
7.St John's South-Mount Pearl, Liberal

Prince Edward Island. 3 Liberal, 1 Conservative
1.Cardigan, Liberal
2.Charlottetown, Liberal
3.Egmont, Conservative
4.Malpeque, Liberal

Nova Scotia 7 Liberal, 2 Conservative, 2 NDP
1.Cape Breton-Canso, Liberal
2.Central Nova, Conservative
3.Cumberland-Colchester, Liberal
4.Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Liberal
5.Halifax, NDP
6.Halifax West, Liberal
7.Kings-Hants, Liberal
8.Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, NDP
9.South Shore-St. Margaret's Conservative
10.Sydney-Victoria, Liberal
11.West Nova, Liberal

New Brunswick 7 Liberal 3 Conservative
1.Acadie-Bathurst, Liberal
2.Beausejour, Liberal
3.Fredericton, Liberal
4.Fundy-Royal, Conservative
5.Madawaska-Restigouche, Liberal
6.Miramichi-Grand Lake, Liberal
7.Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Liberal
8.New Brunswick Southwest, Conservative
9.Saint Jean-Rothesay, Liberal
10.Tobique-Mactaquac, Conservative Conservative

Total Atlantic 23 Liberal, 6 Conservative, 3 NDP

[136or142]

Quebec
Montreal and Suburbs
Montreal Suburbs, 8 NDP , 2 B.Q 1 Liberal
1.Beloeil—Chambly, NDP
2.Brossard—Saint-Lambert, Liberal
3.Châteauguay—Lacolle, NDP
4.La Prairie, NDP
5.Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, NDP
6.Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, NDP
7.Montarville, B.Q
8.Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, B.Q
9.Saint Jean, NDP
10.Salaberry—Suroît, NDP
11.Vaudreuil—Soulanges, NDP

Eastern Montreal, 2 NDP, 2 B.Q, 1 Liberal
1.Hochelaga, B.Q
2.Honoré-Mercier , Liberal
3.La Pointe de l'Île, B.Q
4.Laurier Sainte Marie, NDP
5.Rosemont—La Petite Patrie, NDP

Western Montreal, 7 Liberal, 2 NDP
1.Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle, Liberal
2.Lac Saint Louis, Liberal
3.LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, NDP
4.Mount Royal, Liberal
5.Notre Dame de Grâce—Westmount, Liberal
6.Outremont, NDP
7.Pierrefonds—Dollard, Liberal
8.Saint-Laurent, Liberal
9.Ville-Marie Le Sud-Ouest-Île des Sœurs, Liberal

Northern Montreal and Laval,  Liberal 6, NDP 2
1.Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Liberal
2.Alfred-Pellan, NDP
3.Bourassa, Liberal
4.Laval—Les Îles, Lib
5.Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, NDP
6.Papineau, Liberal
7.Saint Léonard—SaintMichel, Liberal
8.Vimy, Lib

Total, Montreal and Suburbs: Liberal 15, NDP 14, B.Q 4

[136or142]

Rest of Quebec
Eastern Quebec, Conservative 2, NDP 2, Lib 1
1.Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, Lib
2.Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis, Conservative
3.Gaspésie—Les Îles de la Madeleine, NDP
4.Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière du Loup, Conservative
5.Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, NDP

Côte-Nord and Saguenay, NDP 3, Conservative 2
1.Beauport—Côte de Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix, Con
2.Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, NDP
3.Jonquière, NDP
4.Lac Saint Jean, Conservative
5.Manicouagan, NDP

Quebec City and Region, 3 Conservative, 2 NDP
1.Beauport—Limoilou, NDP
2.Charlesbourg—Haute Saint Charles, Conservative
3.Louis Hébert, Conservative
4.Louis-Saint-Laurent, Conservative
5.Quebec (City), NDP

Central Quebec, 5 NDP, 2 B.Q, 2 Conservative
1.Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel, B.Q
2.Berthier—Maskinongé, NDP
3.Joliette, B.Q
4.Lévis—Lotbinière, Conservative
5.Montcalm, NDP
6.Portneuf—Jacques Cartier, Conservative
7.Repentigny (L'Assomption), NDP
8.Saint-Maurice—Champlain, NDP
9.Trois-Rivières, NDP

Eastern Townships (L'Estrie), 4 NDP, 3 Conservative, 1 Liberal, 1 B.Q
1.Beauce, Conservative
2.Brome—Missisquoi, Liberal
3.Compton—Stanstead, NDP
4.Drummond , NDP
5.Mégantic—L'Érable, Conservative
6.Richmond—Arthabaska, Conservative
7.Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, NDP
8.Shefford, NDP
9.Sherbrooke, B.Q

Laurentides, Outaouais and Northern Quebec, NDP 11, Lib 1
1.Abitibi—Baie James—Nunavik—Eeyou,  NDP
2.Abitibi—Témiscamingue, NDP
3.Argenteuil—La Petite Nation, NDP
4.Gatineau, NDP
5.Hull-Alymer, NDP
6.Laurentides—Labelle, NDP
7.Mirabel, NDP
8.Pontiac, Liberal
9.Rivière des Mille Îles, NDP
10.Rivière du Nord, NDP
10.Terrebonne, NDP
11.Thérèse De Blainville, NDP

Total Quebec: NDP 41, Liberal 18, Conservative 12, B.Q 7

[136or142]

Ontario
Toronto
Outer Toronto 13 Liberal 1 Conservative
1.Don Valley East, Liberal
2.Don Valley North, Liberal
3.Etobicoke Centre, Liberal
4.Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Liberal
5.Etobicoke North, Liberal
6.Humber River—Black Creek (York West), Liberal
7.Scarborough—Agincourt, Liberal
8.Scarborough Centre, Liberal
9.Scarborough—Guildwood, Liberal
10.Scarborough North, Liberal
11.Scarborough—Rouge Park, Liberal
12.Scarborough Southwest, Liberal
13.Willowdale, Liberal
14.York Centre,  Conservative

Central Toronto, 7 Liberal, 4 NDP
1.Beaches—East York, NDP
2.Davenport, NDP
3.Don Valley West, Liberal
4.Eglinton—Lawrence, Liberal
5.Parkdale—High Park, NDP
6.Spadina—Fort York, Liberal
7.Toronto Centre, Liberal
8.Toronto—Danforth, NDP
9.Toronto—St. Paul's, Liberal
10.University—Rosedale, Liberal
11.York South—Weston, Liberal

Total Toronto, Liberal 21, NDP 4

[136or142]

905
Southern Durham and York, 7 Liberal, 4 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Ajax, Liberal
2.Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Liberal
3.King—Vaughan, Liberal
4.Markham—Stouffville, Liberal
5.Markham—Thornhill, Liberal
6.Markham—Unionville, Liberal
7.Oshawa, NDP
8.Pickering—Uxbridge, Liberal
9.Richmond Hill, Liberal
10.Thornhill, Conservative
11.Vaughan—Woodbridge, Liberal
12.Whitby, Conservative

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville, 11 Liberal, 2 Conservative
1.Brampton Centre, Liberal
2.Brampton East, Liberal
3.Brampton North, Liberal
4.Brampton South, Liberal
5.Brampton West, Liberal
6.Mississauga Centre, Liberal
7.Mississauga East—Cooksville, Liberal
8.Mississauga—Erin Mills, Liberal
9.Mississauga—Lakeshore, Liberal
10.Mississauga—Malton, Liberal
11.Mississauga—Streetsville, Liberal
12.Oakville, Conservative
13.Oakville North—Burlington, Conservative

Total 905, Liberal 20, Conservative 4, NDP 1

[136or142]

Eastern Ontario
Ottawa and Region 7 Liberal, 1 NDP
1.Carleton, Liberal
2.Kanata—Carleton, Liberal
3.Nepean, Liberal
4.Orléans, Liberal
5.Ottawa Centre, NDP
6.Ottawa South, Liberal
7.Ottawa—Vanier, Liberal
8.Ottawa West—Nepean, Liberal

Eastern Ontario, 6 Conservative, 2 Liberal
1.Bay of Quinte, Conservative
2.Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, Liberal
3.Hastings—Lennox and Addington, Conservative
4.Kingston and the Islands, Liberal
5.Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston, Conservative
6.Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Conservative
7.Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Conservative
8.Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Conservative

Total, 9 Liberal, 6 Conservative, 1 NDP

[136or142]

Rest of Province
Northern Ontario. 7 NDP, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal
1.Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, NDP
2.Kenora, Conservative
3.Nickel Belt, NDP
4.Nipissing—Timiskaming, Liberal
5.Parry Sound—Muskoka, Conservative
6.Sault Ste. Marie, NDP
7.Sudbury, NDP
8.Thunder Bay—Rainy River, NDP
9.Thunder Bay—Superior North, NDP
10.Timmins—James Bay, NDP

Central Ontario, 8 Conservative, 4 Liberal
1.Barrie—Innisfil, Conservative
2.Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, Liberal
3.Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, Conservative
4.Dufferin—Caledon, Conservative
5.Durham, Conservative
6.Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Conservative
7.Newmarket—Aurora, Liberal
8.Northumberland—Peterborough South, Liberal
9.Peterborough—Kawartha, Liberal
10.Simcoe—Grey, Conservative
11.Simcoe North, Conservative
12.York—Simcoe, Conservative

Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara, 4 Conservative, 4 NDP, 3 Liberal
1.Burlington, Conservative
2.Flamborough—Glanbrook, Liberal
3.Hamilton Centre, NDP
4.Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, NDP
5.Hamilton Mountain, NDP
6.Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, Liberal
7.Milton, Conservative
8.Niagara Centre, NDP
9.Niagara Falls, Conservative
10.Niagara West, Conservative
11.St. Catharines, Liberal

Midwestern Ontario, 6 Conservative, 5 Liberal
1.Brantford—Brant, Conservative
2.Cambridge, Conservative
3.Guelph, Liberal
4.Haldimand—Norfolk, Conservative
5.Huron—Bruce, Conservative
6.Kitchener Centre, Liberal
7.Kitchener—Conestoga, Liberal
8.Kitchener South-Hespeler, Conservative
8.Oxford, Conservative
9.Perth—Wellington, Liberal
10.Waterloo, Liberal
11.Wellington—Halton Hills, Conservative

Southwestern Ontario Liberal 5, NDP 3, Conservative 2
1.Chatham-Kent—Leamington, Liberal
2.Elgin—Middlesex—London, Liberal
3.Essex, Conservative
4.Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Liberal
5.London—Fanshawe, NDP
6.London North Centre, Liberal
7.London West, Liberal
8.Sarnia-Lambton, Conservative
9.Windsor—Tecumseh, NDP
10.Windsor West, NDP

Total Ontario, Liberal 67, Conservative 35, NDP 19

[136or142]

Manitoba
Rural Manitoba, 5 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Brandon—Souris, Conservative
2.Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, NDP
3.Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa, Conservative
4.Portage—Lisgar, Conservative
5.Provencher, Conservative
6.Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, Conservative

Winnipeg, 6 Liberal, 2 Conservative
1.Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, Conservative
2.Elmwood—Transcona, Conservative
3.Kildonan—St. Paul, Liberal
4.Saint Boniface—Saint Vital, Liberal
5.Winnipeg Centre, Liberal
6.Winnipeg North, Liberal
7.Winnipeg South, Liberal
8.Winnipeg South Centre, Liberal

Total Manitoba, 7 Conservative, 6 Liberal, 1 NDP

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Liberals - 150
Conservatives - 124
NDP - 58
Others - 6

[136or142]

Saskatchewan
Rural Saskatchewan 7 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Cypress Hills—Grasslands, Conservative
2.Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan, Conservative
3.Souris—Moose Mountain, Conservative
4.Yorkton—Melville, Conservative
5.Battlefords—Lloydminster, Conservative
6.Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek, Conservative
7.Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, NDP
8.Prince Albert, Conservative

Regina 1 Liberal, 1 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Regina—Lewvan, NDP
2.Regina—Qu'Appelle, Conservative
3.Regina—Wascana, Liberal

Saskatoon, 2 NDP 1 Conservative
1.Saskatoon—Grasswood, Conservative
2.Saskatoon—University, NDP
3.Saskatoon West, NDP

Total Saskatchewan, 9 Conservative, 4 NDP, 1 Liberal

[HagridOfTheDeep]

155 Liberal
115 Conservative
62 NDP
6 Others

[136or142]

Alberta
Edmonton and Region, 7 Conservative, 2 NDP, 2 Liberal
1.Edmonton Centre, Liberal
2.Edmonton-Griesbach, NDP
3.Edmonton-Manning, Conservative
4.Edmonton-Mill Woods, Conservative
5.Edmonton-Riverbend, Conservative
6.Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP
7.Edmonton West, Liberal
8.Edmonton—Wetaskiwin, Conservative
9.St. Albert—Edmonton, Conservative
9.Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, Conservative
10.Sturgeon River—Parkland, Conservative

Calgary, 8 Conservative, 2 Liberal
1.Calgary Centre, Liberal
2.Calgary-Confederation, Liberal
3.Calgary-Forest Lawn, Conservative
4.Calgary-Heritage, Conservative
5.Calgary-Midnapore, Conservative
6.Calgary-Nose Hill, Conservative
7.Calgary-Rocky Ridge, Conservative
8.Calgary-Shepard, Conservative
9.Calgary-Signal Hill, Conservative
10.Calgary Skyview, Conservative

Smaller Cities, Conservative 6
1.Fort McMurray—Cold Lake, Conservative
2.Grande Prairie—Mackenzie, Conservative
3.Lethbridge, Conservative
4.Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, Conservative
5.Red Deer—Lacombe, Conservative
6.Red Deer—Mountain View, Conservative

Rural, 7 Conservative
1.Banff—Airdrie, Conservative
2.Battle River—Crowfoot, Conservative
3.Bow River, Conservative
4.Foothills, Conservative
5.Lakeland, Conservative
6.Peace River—Westlock, Conservative
6.Yellowhead, Conservative

Total Alberta, Conservative 28, Liberal 4, NDP 2

[136or142]

British Columbia
Vancouver Liberal 4, NDP 2
1.Vancouver Centre, Liberal
2.Vancouver East, NDP
3.Vancouver-Granville, Liberal
4.Vancouver-Kingsway, NDP
5.Vancouver-Quadra, Liberal
6.Vancouver South, Liberal

Greater Vancouver Liberal 5, NDP 4, Conservative 1
1.Burnaby North—Seymour, Liberal
2.Burnaby South, NDP
3.Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam, NDP
4.Delta, Liberal
5.New Westminster—Burnaby, NDP
6.North Vancouver, Liberal
7.Port Moody—Coquitlam, NDP
8.Richmond Centre, Liberal
9.Steveston-Richmond East, Conservative
10.West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, Liberal

Surrey and Fraser Valley, Conservative 5, NDP 3, Liberal 2
1.Cloverdale-Langley City, Conservative
2.Fleetwood-Port Kells, Liberal
3.South Surrey—White Rock, Conservative
4.Surrey Centre, NDP
5.Surrey-Newton, Liberal
6.Abbotsford, Conservative
7.Chilliwack—Hope, Conservative
8.Langley—Aldergrove, Conservative
9.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, NDP
10.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, NDP

Vancouver Island
1.Courtenay—Alberni, NDP
2.Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, NDP
3.Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, NDP
4.Nanaimo—Ladysmith, NDP
5.North Island—Powell River, NDP
6.Saanich-Gulf Islands, Green
7.Victoria, NDP

Interior Conservative 5, NDP 4
1.Cariboo-Prince George, Conservative
2.Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, Conservative
3.Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo, NDP
4.Kelowna—Lake Country, Conservative
5.Kootenay—Columbia, NDP
6.North Okanagan—Shuswap, Conservative
7.Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies, Conservative
8.Skeena—Bulkley Valley, NDP
9.South Okanagan—West Kootenay, NDP

Total British Columbia, NDP 19, Conservative 11, Liberal 11, Green 1

Territories
1.Nunavut, Liberal
2Northwest Territories, NDP
3.Yukon, Liberal

Total Territories, Liberal 2, NDP 1

[136or142]

Final Total 338
Liberal 130
Conservative 108
NDP 89
B.Q 10
Green 1

I suspect I'm wrong on about 10 seats in Quebec that will go Liberal instead of NDP and there are probably 5 seats in B.C that will go Conservative instead of NDP, so the final revised total is

Liberal 140
Conservative 113
NDP 74
B.Q 10
Green 1

[BaconBacon96]

Given the rush of last minute polls I'll be revising my final prediction to this

Liberal 146
Conservative 120
NDP 69
Bloc 2
Green 1

[DC Al Fine]

Thought I'd share some CBC commenter predictions because they don't know how to register for internet forums.

1) Harper rigged the 2011 election in which he actually came third. He will rig this one and win an increased majority.

2) Harper will lose his seat because NDP/Notley.

3) Trudeau will win 200+ seats.

[136or142]

Final? Election prediction project prediction
Liberal 128
Conservative 120
NDP 83
B.Q 5
Green 2

It seems that it appears it might be the Liberals who get the highest share of the vote in Quebec but not come close to winning the most seats due to having their vote spread too thin, while also dominating West End Montreal.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php

[cp]

I'm irritatingly busy with work today so I can't do a close-riding list, but here's my top line prediction:

Liberal: 159, 38.5%
Tory: 98, 32%
NDP: 77, 21%
Bloc: 3, 4.5 (18% in PQ)
Green: 1, 4%

[Krago]

The movement from the NDP to the Liberals is still continuing.

My prediction:

Lib - 191 (including a majority of Quebec seats, incl. Outremont and Laurier-Ste Marie)
Cons - 98
NDP - 34
BQ - 12
Green - 2 (+Victoria)
Ind - 1 (Rathgeber)

[Boston Bread]

With the continued LPC momentum I'll make this my final prediction, using my popular vote estimates and my model for the seat count:
Liberal: 37%, 149 seats
Conservative: 31%, 103 seats
NDP: 22%, 81 seats
Bloc: 5%, 3 seats
Green: 4%, 1 seat

Regions (PV, then seat count):

Atlantic
LPC: 49%, 25 seats
NDP: 25%, 4 seats
CPC: 21%, 3 seats

Quebec
NDP: 30%, 41 seats
LPC: 30%, 25 seats
Bloc: 20%, 3 seats
CPC: 17%, 8 seats

Ontario
LPC: 44%, 76 seats
CPC: 33%, 33 seats
NDP: 18%, 12 seats

Prairies (SK+MB)
CPC: 42%, 14 seats
LPC: 30%, 7 seats
NDP: 24%, 7 seats

Alberta
CPC: 55%, 29 seats
LPC: 24%, 3 seats
NDP: 16%, 2 seats

BC
CPC: 32%, 16 seats
NDP: 31%, 15 seats
LPC: 28%, 10 seats
Green: 8%, 1 seat

Territories: 3 LPC seats

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Forces et Democracy majority, calling it.

[Barnes]

Forces et Democracy majority, calling it.

They are runnning somebody in Ontario, so I forsee a sweep.

[Jahiegel]

I submitted mine--or thought that I had, at least!--late last week, and yet I see no trace of them in the thread; I can only imagine that, being half-asleep in the wee hours of the day, I managed to fail actually to click "post".  I'd e-mailed myself a copy (pre-formatting, natch, which means that I got to re-add all the delightful tags just now), so I shall try again; my final numbers fade the NDP a bit more than these, but it's only fair that I post what I'd intended to--and, indeed, thought I had--some days ago.

Summary
Popular vote winner: Liberal (37.2%)
Most seats winner: Liberal (143 seats)

Battleground seats
St. John's South—Mount Pearl - LPC
Central Nova - LPC
Laurier—Sainte-Marie - NDP
Mount Royal - LPC
Spadina—Fort York - NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence - LPC
Beaches—East York - LPC
Toronto Centre - LPC
Mississauga—Malton - LPC
Sudbury - NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa - CPC
Regina—Lewvan - CPC
Lethbridge - CPC
Edmonton Centre - LPC
Edmonton Griesbach - NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton - CPC
Calgary Centre - LPC
Delta - LPC
South Surrey—White Rock - LPC
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam - CPC
North Vancouver - LPC
Vancouver South - LPC
Vancouver Granville - LPC
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country - LPC
North Island—Powell River - NDP    
Victoria - NDP

Other pickups
CPC: Charlesbourg—Haute-Sainte-Charles, Jonquière, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC: Cumberland—Colchester, Egmont, Fredericton, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, South Shore—St. Margaret’s (I may or may not, in my abiding laziness, simply have taken the first five LPC pickups from my [roughly] geographically-ordered list)

NDP: Courtenay—Alberni, Port Moody—Coquitlam, South Okanagan—West Kootenay, somewhere in Saskatchewan (perhaps Saskatoon—Grasswood or Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, although I’m not officially guessing either)

Comprehensive projection
Party standings (national)
LPC—143 seats (37.2 per cent)
CPC—112 seats (31.0 per cent)
NDP—79 seats (22.1 per cent)
BQ—3 seats (4.6 per cent)
GPC—1 seat (4.1 per cent)
SiD—0 seats (0.3 per cent)
Other and independents—0 seats (0.7 per cent)

Regional results
Territories: LPC—2 seats (41.4 per cent), NDP—1 seat (21.7 per cent), CPC—0 seats (29.0 per cent)
Maritimes: LPC—26 seats (53.1 per cent), CPC—3 seats (22.7 per cent), NDP—3 seats (20.0 per cent)
Québec: NDP—40 seats (28.7 per cent), LPC—24 seats (30.1 per cent), CPC—11 seats (17.9 per cent), BQ—3 seats (19.5 per cent)
Ontario: LPC—68 seats (43.6 per cent), CPC—38 seats (32.4 per cent), NDP—15 seats (19.3 per cent)
Prairies: CPC—17 seats (44.1 per cent), LPC—6 seats (29.4 per cent), NDP—5 seats (23.3 per cent)
Alberta: CPC—29 seats (55.3 per cent), LPC—4 seats (24.1 per cent), NDP—1 seat (14.9 per cent)
British Columbia: CPC—14 seats (30.5 per cent), NDP—14 seats (28.1 per cent), LPC—13 seats (32.3 per cent), GPC—1 seat (8.5 per cent)

[King of Kensington]

Here's my revised (and final) prediction.  Was too generous to the NDP in BC.

Liberals  137
Conservatives  114
NDP  82
Bloc  4
Greens  1

Newfoundland and Labrador

Liberals  6
NDP  1

PEI

Liberals  4

Nova Scotia

Liberals  9
NDP  2

New Brunswick

Liberals  6
Conseratives  4

Quebec

NDP  43
Liberals  20
Conservatives  11
Bloc  4

Ontario

Liberals  68
Conservatives  37
NDP  16

Manitoba

Conservatives  8
Liberals  4
NDP  2

Saskatchewan 

Conservatives  11
NDP  2
Liberals  1

Alberta

Conservatives  27
Liberals  5
NDP  2

BC 

Conservatives  16
NDP  13
Liberals  12
Greens  1

Liberals win Nunavut and Yukon, NDP the Northwest Territories.