2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

[Boston Bread]

I'll make a prediction assuming things remain fairly stable over the rest of the campaign. Of course there's still time for there to be a wild swing rendering my prediction useless.

Who wins most seats: NDP
Who wins PV: NDP

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- NDP
Central Nova- CPC
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP
Mount Royal-  LPC
Spadina—Fort York- NDP
Eglinton—Lawrence-  LPC
Beaches—East York- NDP
Toronto Centre-  LPC
Mississauga—Malton- LPC
Sudbury- NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- CPC
Regina—Lewvan- NDP
Lethbridge- NDP
Edmonton Centre- NDP
Edmonton Griesbach- NDP
St. Albert—Edmonton- CPC
Calgary Centre- CPC
Delta- LPC
South Surrey—White Rock- CPC
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- NDP
North Vancouver- LPC
Vancouver South- LPC
Vancouver Granville- NDP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- LPC
North Island—Powell River- NDP
Victoria- NDP

Hardest one was Granville. Better to trust the riding poll (NDP lead) than the proportional swing models (LPC lead), IMO.

Some other NDP pickups:
Kenora
Sault Ste Marie
Oshawa
Saskatoon-Grasswood
Essex

[Boston Bread]

Thanks for the analysis, but no seat where the CPC got less than 50% in 2011 in BC should be considered safe for them. They've dropped too far in the polls. A lot that prior CPC vote could be going LPC, in which case there's no reason to be concerned about a split.

[Boston Bread]

That's a lot of seats Hatman, I'll go over them one section at a time. And I'll try to explain each prediction a bit.

- Egmont LPC
Liberals should be handily leading in PEI.
- Cumberland—Colchester LPC
Casey (LPC, former Conservative) has the rare distinction of being personally popular to win as an indie. So he should take it.
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour NDP
Provincially, the latest CRA poll showed the Libs at 50. Yet the NDP could win a by-election against the still-popular liberals here. I think this seat can escape the red tide.
- South Shore—St. Margarets NDP
Conservatives have dropped to far in the Atlantic to be competitive here.
- West Nova LPC
Don't think this seat is competitive. Safe LPC gain.
- Acadie—Bathurst NDP
This seat probably will see one of the largest NDP drops in the country, without Godin. But even then the NDP can win.
- Fredericton LPC
I'm going by the riding poll on this one. Still I'd say all 3 parties are competitive here.
- Miramichi—Grand Lake LPC
No clue what it's like on the ground there, so I'll defer to my model which suggests a narrow LPC win over the CPC based on a proportional swing.
- Saint John—Rothesay NDP
I think (could be wrong) this covers a lot of the territory the NB NDP targeted, but wound up losing all their targets by about 10 points to PCs. Nonetheless it shows that the Liberals aren't strong here and that a weaker than usual Conservative vote would allow an NDP win.

Wild card: Liberals are currently favoured. But Charlottetown has a chance of going NDP, if the CRA poll from May which showed the NDP at 28% in PEI holds true.

Overall Atlantic prediction:
4 CPC (3 in NB, 1 in NS)
8 NDP (2 in NB, 4 in NS, 2 in NFLD)
20 LPC

I'd estimate the popular vote in the Atlantic at 42-31-23-4.

[Boston Bread]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

Does that mean much? The NS NDP already reached its low popularity in 2011, yet the Liberals were a distant third there.

[Boston Bread]

I see I was wrong about the NS NDP support in 2011. But for the LPC to win it they'd need a big over performance, and I don't see the provincial election result to be enough of a reason for that. We'll have to disagree here.

[Boston Bread]

Moving over to QC,
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville NDP
I'll give Mourani the benefit of the doubt that she is personally popular enough to prevent a Liberal victory here, as she won re-election as a Bloquist in 2011.
- Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia NDP
I think the NDP is doing really well enough among soft nationalists to eat up enough Bloc voters to prevent the LPC from winning here. But if I'm wrong, it could be a 4-way race! (LPC/NDP/Bloc/F&D)
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel NDP
- Brome—Missisquoi NDP
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert NDP
Some voted strategically for LPC to keep out Bloc, not foreseeing the coming NDP sweep. Some will vote NDP this time.
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles NDP
- Honoré-Mercier LPC
- Lac-Saint-Jean CPC
- Louis-Saint-Laurent NDP
- Mégantic—L'Érable CPC
- Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup NDP
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC
- Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC
- Pontiac NDP
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier NDP

I don't know enough about QC politics to defend every one of my decisions here, but basically:
- I expect the Bloc to be wiped. This leaves the NDP as the default in Francophone ridings.
- Remaining CPC strongholds look tough to crack, but I don't think they'll make gains.
- I don't believe the hype about Trudeau, Garneau, et al. being vulnerable. I think all Liberal incumbents are safe. A few other Montreal gains are in store for them, too.

Seats: 64-10-4
Popular vote: 47-19-15-15-3

[Boston Bread]

If the ABNDP can still get 26% in a place like Foothills, Edmonton (and Lethbridge) should still be a complete lock for them. That's all the federal NDP should ever need from Alberta.

[Boston Bread]

PV:
35% Liberal
31% Conservative
24% NDP
5% Bloc
4% Green

Seats:
Liberals 139
Conservatives 108
NDP 87
Bloc 3
Green 1

I think the NDP will pull a little over 30% in QC and still get 40-50 seats. In BC I expect the NDP to more or less tie the Conservatives in seats, with a 3-way in the popular vote and the Liberals not winning as many seats. In Ontario the Grits get 70 seats, while Conservatives only win 35.

[Boston Bread]

Liberals  134
Conservatives  112
NDP  87
Bloc  4
Greens  1

Our predictions are very similar... your regional seat spreads are more or less the same as what I expect as well.

[Boston Bread]

With the continued LPC momentum I'll make this my final prediction, using my popular vote estimates and my model for the seat count:
Liberal: 37%, 149 seats
Conservative: 31%, 103 seats
NDP: 22%, 81 seats
Bloc: 5%, 3 seats
Green: 4%, 1 seat

Regions (PV, then seat count):

Atlantic
LPC: 49%, 25 seats
NDP: 25%, 4 seats
CPC: 21%, 3 seats

Quebec
NDP: 30%, 41 seats
LPC: 30%, 25 seats
Bloc: 20%, 3 seats
CPC: 17%, 8 seats

Ontario
LPC: 44%, 76 seats
CPC: 33%, 33 seats
NDP: 18%, 12 seats

Prairies (SK+MB)
CPC: 42%, 14 seats
LPC: 30%, 7 seats
NDP: 24%, 7 seats

Alberta
CPC: 55%, 29 seats
LPC: 24%, 3 seats
NDP: 16%, 2 seats

BC
CPC: 32%, 16 seats
NDP: 31%, 15 seats
LPC: 28%, 10 seats
Green: 8%, 1 seat

Territories: 3 LPC seats

[Boston Bread]

I was far, far off in Quebec. 30 seats too many for the NDP. But outside of Quebec my predictions were acceptable. I got the Conservative number correct in Ontario, but overestimated them in BC and the Atlantic.