2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

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I can't see anybody but the Conservatives winning Delta.  The problem for the opposition parties is the make up of the riding.

There are 3 distinct areas of Delta: North Delta and the South Delta areas of Ladner and Tsawwassen. 

North Delta was part of the Surrey riding that elected New Democrat Jinny Simms in the last election.  It is very competitive provincially having elected New Democrat Norm Lortie from 1991-1996 and Guy Gentner from 2005-2013.  Lortie was defeated in 1996 while Gentner retired.  Gentner likely benefited from his personal popularity (though I never thought highly of him, for what that's worth) based on his 'maverick status' and his creativity while on City Council (he was the first municipal politician, in Canada at least, to come up with the Tour de... bike races, with the Tour de Delta.)

The provincial NDP lost North Delta in 2013 to the Provincial Liberals by, I believe less than 2%.  The Federal Liberals likely don't have a lot of strength in North Delta.

South Delta, both Ladner and Tsawwassen is completely different. One of those two communities is known locally as "White Rhodesia" for its right wing politics and its number of churches. The NDP is basically non existent in South Delta and the federal Liberals are the main opposition party there. 

So, unless the anti Conservative vote can rally behind one candidate, the Conservatives should easily come up the middle.  The Liberals may have a slight upper hand here though, as to the degree that anybody pays attention to the local candidate these days the NDP candidate is a rather weak recent university teaching assistant.  He seems to be quite smart, but as far as I know he was completely unknown in the riding.

The Liberal candidate, Carla Qualtrough, is likely higher profile, having Federal Liberal Connections and possibly provincial Liberal connections as well and she has a compelling personal story (she's legally blind and has competed athletically), but she ran poorly running for school trustee in the 2014 municipal elections.  By contrast, the 2011 NDP  federal candidate in the former riding of Richmond East-South Delta (or something like that) Nick Slater got nearly twice the votes she did running for Delta School Board in the 2014 municipal election.  Neither got elected, but I believe Slater missed out on the final position by under 200 votes, which is actually a pretty good result for a first time municipal candidate.

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Riding by Riding predictions

Atlantic
New Foundland and Labrador. 6 Liberal 1 N.D.P
1.Avalon, Liberal
2.Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Liberal
3.Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Liberal
4.Labrador, Liberal
5.Long Range Mountains, Liberal
6.St John's East, N.D.P
7.St John's South-Mount Pearl, Liberal

Prince Edward Island. 3 Liberal, 1 Conservative
1.Cardigan, Liberal
2.Charlottetown, Liberal
3.Egmont, Conservative
4.Malpeque, Liberal

Nova Scotia 7 Liberal, 2 Conservative, 2 NDP
1.Cape Breton-Canso, Liberal
2.Central Nova, Conservative
3.Cumberland-Colchester, Liberal
4.Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Liberal
5.Halifax, NDP
6.Halifax West, Liberal
7.Kings-Hants, Liberal
8.Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, NDP
9.South Shore-St. Margaret's Conservative
10.Sydney-Victoria, Liberal
11.West Nova, Liberal

New Brunswick 7 Liberal 3 Conservative
1.Acadie-Bathurst, Liberal
2.Beausejour, Liberal
3.Fredericton, Liberal
4.Fundy-Royal, Conservative
5.Madawaska-Restigouche, Liberal
6.Miramichi-Grand Lake, Liberal
7.Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Liberal
8.New Brunswick Southwest, Conservative
9.Saint Jean-Rothesay, Liberal
10.Tobique-Mactaquac, Conservative Conservative

Total Atlantic 23 Liberal, 6 Conservative, 3 NDP

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Quebec
Montreal and Suburbs
Montreal Suburbs, 8 NDP , 2 B.Q 1 Liberal
1.Beloeil—Chambly, NDP
2.Brossard—Saint-Lambert, Liberal
3.Châteauguay—Lacolle, NDP
4.La Prairie, NDP
5.Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, NDP
6.Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, NDP
7.Montarville, B.Q
8.Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, B.Q
9.Saint Jean, NDP
10.Salaberry—Suroît, NDP
11.Vaudreuil—Soulanges, NDP

Eastern Montreal, 2 NDP, 2 B.Q, 1 Liberal
1.Hochelaga, B.Q
2.Honoré-Mercier , Liberal
3.La Pointe de l'Île, B.Q
4.Laurier Sainte Marie, NDP
5.Rosemont—La Petite Patrie, NDP

Western Montreal, 7 Liberal, 2 NDP
1.Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle, Liberal
2.Lac Saint Louis, Liberal
3.LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, NDP
4.Mount Royal, Liberal
5.Notre Dame de Grâce—Westmount, Liberal
6.Outremont, NDP
7.Pierrefonds—Dollard, Liberal
8.Saint-Laurent, Liberal
9.Ville-Marie Le Sud-Ouest-Île des Sœurs, Liberal

Northern Montreal and Laval,  Liberal 6, NDP 2
1.Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Liberal
2.Alfred-Pellan, NDP
3.Bourassa, Liberal
4.Laval—Les Îles, Lib
5.Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, NDP
6.Papineau, Liberal
7.Saint Léonard—SaintMichel, Liberal
8.Vimy, Lib

Total, Montreal and Suburbs: Liberal 15, NDP 14, B.Q 4

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Rest of Quebec
Eastern Quebec, Conservative 2, NDP 2, Lib 1
1.Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, Lib
2.Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis, Conservative
3.Gaspésie—Les Îles de la Madeleine, NDP
4.Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière du Loup, Conservative
5.Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, NDP

Côte-Nord and Saguenay, NDP 3, Conservative 2
1.Beauport—Côte de Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix, Con
2.Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, NDP
3.Jonquière, NDP
4.Lac Saint Jean, Conservative
5.Manicouagan, NDP

Quebec City and Region, 3 Conservative, 2 NDP
1.Beauport—Limoilou, NDP
2.Charlesbourg—Haute Saint Charles, Conservative
3.Louis Hébert, Conservative
4.Louis-Saint-Laurent, Conservative
5.Quebec (City), NDP

Central Quebec, 5 NDP, 2 B.Q, 2 Conservative
1.Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel, B.Q
2.Berthier—Maskinongé, NDP
3.Joliette, B.Q
4.Lévis—Lotbinière, Conservative
5.Montcalm, NDP
6.Portneuf—Jacques Cartier, Conservative
7.Repentigny (L'Assomption), NDP
8.Saint-Maurice—Champlain, NDP
9.Trois-Rivières, NDP

Eastern Townships (L'Estrie), 4 NDP, 3 Conservative, 1 Liberal, 1 B.Q
1.Beauce, Conservative
2.Brome—Missisquoi, Liberal
3.Compton—Stanstead, NDP
4.Drummond , NDP
5.Mégantic—L'Érable, Conservative
6.Richmond—Arthabaska, Conservative
7.Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, NDP
8.Shefford, NDP
9.Sherbrooke, B.Q

Laurentides, Outaouais and Northern Quebec, NDP 11, Lib 1
1.Abitibi—Baie James—Nunavik—Eeyou,  NDP
2.Abitibi—Témiscamingue, NDP
3.Argenteuil—La Petite Nation, NDP
4.Gatineau, NDP
5.Hull-Alymer, NDP
6.Laurentides—Labelle, NDP
7.Mirabel, NDP
8.Pontiac, Liberal
9.Rivière des Mille Îles, NDP
10.Rivière du Nord, NDP
10.Terrebonne, NDP
11.Thérèse De Blainville, NDP

Total Quebec: NDP 41, Liberal 18, Conservative 12, B.Q 7

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Ontario
Toronto
Outer Toronto 13 Liberal 1 Conservative
1.Don Valley East, Liberal
2.Don Valley North, Liberal
3.Etobicoke Centre, Liberal
4.Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Liberal
5.Etobicoke North, Liberal
6.Humber River—Black Creek (York West), Liberal
7.Scarborough—Agincourt, Liberal
8.Scarborough Centre, Liberal
9.Scarborough—Guildwood, Liberal
10.Scarborough North, Liberal
11.Scarborough—Rouge Park, Liberal
12.Scarborough Southwest, Liberal
13.Willowdale, Liberal
14.York Centre,  Conservative

Central Toronto, 7 Liberal, 4 NDP
1.Beaches—East York, NDP
2.Davenport, NDP
3.Don Valley West, Liberal
4.Eglinton—Lawrence, Liberal
5.Parkdale—High Park, NDP
6.Spadina—Fort York, Liberal
7.Toronto Centre, Liberal
8.Toronto—Danforth, NDP
9.Toronto—St. Paul's, Liberal
10.University—Rosedale, Liberal
11.York South—Weston, Liberal

Total Toronto, Liberal 21, NDP 4

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905
Southern Durham and York, 7 Liberal, 4 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Ajax, Liberal
2.Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Liberal
3.King—Vaughan, Liberal
4.Markham—Stouffville, Liberal
5.Markham—Thornhill, Liberal
6.Markham—Unionville, Liberal
7.Oshawa, NDP
8.Pickering—Uxbridge, Liberal
9.Richmond Hill, Liberal
10.Thornhill, Conservative
11.Vaughan—Woodbridge, Liberal
12.Whitby, Conservative

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville, 11 Liberal, 2 Conservative
1.Brampton Centre, Liberal
2.Brampton East, Liberal
3.Brampton North, Liberal
4.Brampton South, Liberal
5.Brampton West, Liberal
6.Mississauga Centre, Liberal
7.Mississauga East—Cooksville, Liberal
8.Mississauga—Erin Mills, Liberal
9.Mississauga—Lakeshore, Liberal
10.Mississauga—Malton, Liberal
11.Mississauga—Streetsville, Liberal
12.Oakville, Conservative
13.Oakville North—Burlington, Conservative

Total 905, Liberal 20, Conservative 4, NDP 1

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Eastern Ontario
Ottawa and Region 7 Liberal, 1 NDP
1.Carleton, Liberal
2.Kanata—Carleton, Liberal
3.Nepean, Liberal
4.Orléans, Liberal
5.Ottawa Centre, NDP
6.Ottawa South, Liberal
7.Ottawa—Vanier, Liberal
8.Ottawa West—Nepean, Liberal

Eastern Ontario, 6 Conservative, 2 Liberal
1.Bay of Quinte, Conservative
2.Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, Liberal
3.Hastings—Lennox and Addington, Conservative
4.Kingston and the Islands, Liberal
5.Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston, Conservative
6.Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Conservative
7.Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Conservative
8.Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Conservative

Total, 9 Liberal, 6 Conservative, 1 NDP

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Rest of Province
Northern Ontario. 7 NDP, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal
1.Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, NDP
2.Kenora, Conservative
3.Nickel Belt, NDP
4.Nipissing—Timiskaming, Liberal
5.Parry Sound—Muskoka, Conservative
6.Sault Ste. Marie, NDP
7.Sudbury, NDP
8.Thunder Bay—Rainy River, NDP
9.Thunder Bay—Superior North, NDP
10.Timmins—James Bay, NDP

Central Ontario, 8 Conservative, 4 Liberal
1.Barrie—Innisfil, Conservative
2.Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, Liberal
3.Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, Conservative
4.Dufferin—Caledon, Conservative
5.Durham, Conservative
6.Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, Conservative
7.Newmarket—Aurora, Liberal
8.Northumberland—Peterborough South, Liberal
9.Peterborough—Kawartha, Liberal
10.Simcoe—Grey, Conservative
11.Simcoe North, Conservative
12.York—Simcoe, Conservative

Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara, 4 Conservative, 4 NDP, 3 Liberal
1.Burlington, Conservative
2.Flamborough—Glanbrook, Liberal
3.Hamilton Centre, NDP
4.Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, NDP
5.Hamilton Mountain, NDP
6.Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, Liberal
7.Milton, Conservative
8.Niagara Centre, NDP
9.Niagara Falls, Conservative
10.Niagara West, Conservative
11.St. Catharines, Liberal

Midwestern Ontario, 6 Conservative, 5 Liberal
1.Brantford—Brant, Conservative
2.Cambridge, Conservative
3.Guelph, Liberal
4.Haldimand—Norfolk, Conservative
5.Huron—Bruce, Conservative
6.Kitchener Centre, Liberal
7.Kitchener—Conestoga, Liberal
8.Kitchener South-Hespeler, Conservative
8.Oxford, Conservative
9.Perth—Wellington, Liberal
10.Waterloo, Liberal
11.Wellington—Halton Hills, Conservative

Southwestern Ontario Liberal 5, NDP 3, Conservative 2
1.Chatham-Kent—Leamington, Liberal
2.Elgin—Middlesex—London, Liberal
3.Essex, Conservative
4.Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Liberal
5.London—Fanshawe, NDP
6.London North Centre, Liberal
7.London West, Liberal
8.Sarnia-Lambton, Conservative
9.Windsor—Tecumseh, NDP
10.Windsor West, NDP

Total Ontario, Liberal 67, Conservative 35, NDP 19

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Manitoba
Rural Manitoba, 5 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Brandon—Souris, Conservative
2.Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, NDP
3.Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa, Conservative
4.Portage—Lisgar, Conservative
5.Provencher, Conservative
6.Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, Conservative

Winnipeg, 6 Liberal, 2 Conservative
1.Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, Conservative
2.Elmwood—Transcona, Conservative
3.Kildonan—St. Paul, Liberal
4.Saint Boniface—Saint Vital, Liberal
5.Winnipeg Centre, Liberal
6.Winnipeg North, Liberal
7.Winnipeg South, Liberal
8.Winnipeg South Centre, Liberal

Total Manitoba, 7 Conservative, 6 Liberal, 1 NDP

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Saskatchewan
Rural Saskatchewan 7 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Cypress Hills—Grasslands, Conservative
2.Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan, Conservative
3.Souris—Moose Mountain, Conservative
4.Yorkton—Melville, Conservative
5.Battlefords—Lloydminster, Conservative
6.Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek, Conservative
7.Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, NDP
8.Prince Albert, Conservative

Regina 1 Liberal, 1 Conservative, 1 NDP
1.Regina—Lewvan, NDP
2.Regina—Qu'Appelle, Conservative
3.Regina—Wascana, Liberal

Saskatoon, 2 NDP 1 Conservative
1.Saskatoon—Grasswood, Conservative
2.Saskatoon—University, NDP
3.Saskatoon West, NDP

Total Saskatchewan, 9 Conservative, 4 NDP, 1 Liberal

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Alberta
Edmonton and Region, 7 Conservative, 2 NDP, 2 Liberal
1.Edmonton Centre, Liberal
2.Edmonton-Griesbach, NDP
3.Edmonton-Manning, Conservative
4.Edmonton-Mill Woods, Conservative
5.Edmonton-Riverbend, Conservative
6.Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP
7.Edmonton West, Liberal
8.Edmonton—Wetaskiwin, Conservative
9.St. Albert—Edmonton, Conservative
9.Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, Conservative
10.Sturgeon River—Parkland, Conservative

Calgary, 8 Conservative, 2 Liberal
1.Calgary Centre, Liberal
2.Calgary-Confederation, Liberal
3.Calgary-Forest Lawn, Conservative
4.Calgary-Heritage, Conservative
5.Calgary-Midnapore, Conservative
6.Calgary-Nose Hill, Conservative
7.Calgary-Rocky Ridge, Conservative
8.Calgary-Shepard, Conservative
9.Calgary-Signal Hill, Conservative
10.Calgary Skyview, Conservative

Smaller Cities, Conservative 6
1.Fort McMurray—Cold Lake, Conservative
2.Grande Prairie—Mackenzie, Conservative
3.Lethbridge, Conservative
4.Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, Conservative
5.Red Deer—Lacombe, Conservative
6.Red Deer—Mountain View, Conservative

Rural, 7 Conservative
1.Banff—Airdrie, Conservative
2.Battle River—Crowfoot, Conservative
3.Bow River, Conservative
4.Foothills, Conservative
5.Lakeland, Conservative
6.Peace River—Westlock, Conservative
6.Yellowhead, Conservative

Total Alberta, Conservative 28, Liberal 4, NDP 2

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British Columbia
Vancouver Liberal 4, NDP 2
1.Vancouver Centre, Liberal
2.Vancouver East, NDP
3.Vancouver-Granville, Liberal
4.Vancouver-Kingsway, NDP
5.Vancouver-Quadra, Liberal
6.Vancouver South, Liberal

Greater Vancouver Liberal 5, NDP 4, Conservative 1
1.Burnaby North—Seymour, Liberal
2.Burnaby South, NDP
3.Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam, NDP
4.Delta, Liberal
5.New Westminster—Burnaby, NDP
6.North Vancouver, Liberal
7.Port Moody—Coquitlam, NDP
8.Richmond Centre, Liberal
9.Steveston-Richmond East, Conservative
10.West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, Liberal

Surrey and Fraser Valley, Conservative 5, NDP 3, Liberal 2
1.Cloverdale-Langley City, Conservative
2.Fleetwood-Port Kells, Liberal
3.South Surrey—White Rock, Conservative
4.Surrey Centre, NDP
5.Surrey-Newton, Liberal
6.Abbotsford, Conservative
7.Chilliwack—Hope, Conservative
8.Langley—Aldergrove, Conservative
9.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, NDP
10.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, NDP

Vancouver Island
1.Courtenay—Alberni, NDP
2.Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, NDP
3.Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, NDP
4.Nanaimo—Ladysmith, NDP
5.North Island—Powell River, NDP
6.Saanich-Gulf Islands, Green
7.Victoria, NDP

Interior Conservative 5, NDP 4
1.Cariboo-Prince George, Conservative
2.Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, Conservative
3.Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo, NDP
4.Kelowna—Lake Country, Conservative
5.Kootenay—Columbia, NDP
6.North Okanagan—Shuswap, Conservative
7.Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies, Conservative
8.Skeena—Bulkley Valley, NDP
9.South Okanagan—West Kootenay, NDP

Total British Columbia, NDP 19, Conservative 11, Liberal 11, Green 1

Territories
1.Nunavut, Liberal
2Northwest Territories, NDP
3.Yukon, Liberal

Total Territories, Liberal 2, NDP 1

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Final Total 338
Liberal 130
Conservative 108
NDP 89
B.Q 10
Green 1

I suspect I'm wrong on about 10 seats in Quebec that will go Liberal instead of NDP and there are probably 5 seats in B.C that will go Conservative instead of NDP, so the final revised total is

Liberal 140
Conservative 113
NDP 74
B.Q 10
Green 1

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Final? Election prediction project prediction
Liberal 128
Conservative 120
NDP 83
B.Q 5
Green 2

It seems that it appears it might be the Liberals who get the highest share of the vote in Quebec but not come close to winning the most seats due to having their vote spread too thin, while also dominating West End Montreal.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php