MN-PPP: Close race with Democrats slightly ahead; #DeezNutsmentum

[Torie]

Hillary at 38/55 favorables pretty much means that if the Republicans nominate a sane candidate she is done.

She has it in the bag.

I think your little formula, with zero wiggle room, results in the ineluctable conclusion, that to a 100% certainty, the Pubs will nominate an insane candidate. So the only question remaining, is by insane, do you mean legally insane (which varies by state, but we can get that later), or insane in some more colloquial sense (in which event we will need to flesh out what you mean).  Look forward to hearing from you, on all of these most important and pressing issues.

[Suburbia]

I told you that Minnesota may be a potential battleground state.

[Mehmentum]

So PPP has Clinton up 5 on Bush nationally, but only up 2 in Minnesota?  That definitely supports the idea of a discrepancy between nationwide and state polling.  

The Minnesota and Illinois PPP polls are giving 2004-esqe results, which would indicate a narrow Republican victory.  The nationwide polls are looking more like 2012, a narrow Democratic victory.

One bright spot for Democrats in the state polls is Virginia, where Clinton held a commanding lead in the last PPP poll.  That could be the Dems' saving grace next year.

Edit: the Obama approvals support this.  PPP has Obama at -4 in MN, which is about even with his nationwide numbers. 

[Phony Moderate]

Hillary at 38/55 favorables pretty much means that if the Republicans nominate a sane candidate she is done.

She has it in the bag.

I think your little formula, with zero wiggle room, results in the ineluctable conclusion, that to a 100% certainty, the Pubs will nominate an insane candidate. So the only question remaining, is by insane, do you mean legally insane (which varies by state, but we can get that later), or insane in some more colloquial sense (in which event we will need to flesh out what you mean).  Look forward to hearing from you, on all of these most important and pressing issues.

Just playing along with the conmon liberal perception that half of this field is mentally challenged. Fortunately I am not a liberal.

[Free Bird]

Minnesota does have a thing for honesty. Put in the right Republican like Kasich against Hillary and some magic might happen.

[moderatevoter]

This poll is 91% white, whereas Minnesota was about 87% white in 2012 IIRC.

[mencken]

This poll is 91% white, whereas Minnesota was about 87% white in 2012 IIRC.

It was 90% white in 2008. Either Somalis are being imported at such an alarming rate as to double the black voting population of Minnesota within four years, or that is a statistical fluke. Either way, I would not discredit this poll based on a dubious exit poll finding.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary at 38/55 favorables pretty much means that if the Republicans nominate a sane candidate she is done.

She has it in the bag.

I think your little formula, with zero wiggle room, results in the ineluctable conclusion, that to a 100% certainty, the Pubs will nominate an insane candidate. So the only question remaining, is by insane, do you mean legally insane (which varies by state, but we can get that later), or insane in some more colloquial sense (in which event we will need to flesh out what you mean).  Look forward to hearing from you, on all of these most important and pressing issues.

Just playing along with the conmon liberal perception that half of this field is mentally challenged. Fortunately I am not a liberal.

I think it was Jonathan Chait who, during the 2012 primaries, came up with a graph that plotted "Mormonism" vs. "sanity" in the GOP presidential field, finding a strong correlation between the two.  Unfortunately, all of the 2016 candidates are low on the Mormonism scale. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Holy sh**t, according to this poll, among ALL Minnesota voters, Hillary is at 38-55 approve/disapprove!

We'd be fools to nominate her. Even with his low name recognition, Sanders is already doing better against Trump than her.

[RFayette]

Holy sh**t, according to this poll, among ALL Minnesota voters, Hillary is at 38-55 approve/disapprove!

We'd be fools to nominate her. Even with his low name recognition, Sanders is already doing better against Trump than her.

Indeed.  The Electability argument for Clinton has been getting a lot weaker in the past month.  I used to believe Clinton was this invincible figure, but now she shows some weakness.

[MT Treasurer]

Those numbers seem to be in line with the results of another poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Those numbers seem to be in line with the results of another poll.

That article made my eyes bleed, because they kept saying "approval" rather than "favorability".

Yes, I get annoyed by the oddest things. 

[dmmidmi]

I wholeheartedly encourage the GOP to piss away time and resources trying to win Minnesota.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Along with Iowa & CO; MN is a working class state. She should win it by six.

[Senator Cris]

Minnesota will be closest than 2012. Expecially with Walker, IMHO.
However, it will not be won by the republican candidate. It's a wast of time. The GOP should focus on other states.

[Mehmentum]

People bring up Sanders' low name recognition like he's automatically going to be viewed more favorably as his name rec. increases.  Most of the people who are undecided about him are conservatives and moderates, while Liberals have mostly already made up their minds about him.

[pbrower2a]

Holy sh**t, according to this poll, among ALL Minnesota voters, Hillary is at 38-55 approve/disapprove!

We'd be fools to nominate her. Even with his low name recognition, Sanders is already doing better against Trump than her.

Indeed.  The Electability argument for Clinton has been getting a lot weaker in the past month.  I used to believe Clinton was this invincible figure, but now she shoes some weakness.

E-mails.

This gets resolved in her favor (either that they didn't happen, innocent necessity or mistake, or no-harm-no-foul) or it blows up -- which includes the semblance of a cover-up. 

[pbrower2a]

I told you that Minnesota may be a potential battleground state.

Minnesota always looks like a potential battleground state, but the Republicans typically face a ceiling decidedly less than 50%.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hillary having massive white people problems clearly. Hopefully Biden turns the blacks against her. Then all she will have left is the gays (2.0's of course, 1.0s are solidly in the Sanders/Trump camp)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hillary having massive white people problems clearly.

But the Republicans are having all people problems clearly.

[Mehmentum]

People bring up Sanders' low name recognition like he's automatically going to be viewed more favorably as his name rec. increases.  Most of the people who are undecided about him are conservatives and moderates, while Liberals have mostly already made up their minds about him.

Uh, I assure you that many Republicans WANT Clinton to be the nominee.

Sorry, I was referring to PPP's cross tabs (though now I see I didn't mention my source), which show that Moderates and Conservatives have high undecideds with regards to Sanders' favorability.  

Most of the people who aren't familiar with Sanders are Moderates and Conservatives, which means he's going to have a hard time keeping his breakeven favorability rating.

Not that Clinton's favorables are anything to be proud of.  But Clinton doing poorly isn't a reason to hold Sanders up as the 'electable candidate', he's not.

[Torie]

People bring up Sanders' low name recognition like he's automatically going to be viewed more favorably as his name rec. increases.  Most of the people who are undecided about him are conservatives and moderates, while Liberals have mostly already made up their minds about him.

Uh, I assure you that many Republicans WANT Clinton to be the nominee.

Sorry, I was referring to PPP's cross tabs (though now I see I didn't mention my source), which show that Moderates and Conservatives have high undecideds with regards to Sanders' favorability.  

Most of the people who aren't familiar with Sanders are Moderates and Conservatives, which means he's going to have a hard time keeping his breakeven favorability rating.

Not that Clinton's favorables are anything to be proud of.  But Clinton doing poorly isn't a reason to hold Sanders up as the 'electable candidate', he's not.

Suppose Biden hops in?  He might end up getting most of his support from Hillary voters, which perhaps leaves an opening for Sanders. Maybe.

[Landslide Lyndon]

People bring up Sanders' low name recognition like he's automatically going to be viewed more favorably as his name rec. increases.  Most of the people who are undecided about him are conservatives and moderates, while Liberals have mostly already made up their minds about him.

Uh, I assure you that many Republicans WANT Clinton to be the nominee.

Sorry, I was referring to PPP's cross tabs (though now I see I didn't mention my source), which show that Moderates and Conservatives have high undecideds with regards to Sanders' favorability.  

Most of the people who aren't familiar with Sanders are Moderates and Conservatives, which means he's going to have a hard time keeping his breakeven favorability rating.

Not that Clinton's favorables are anything to be proud of.  But Clinton doing poorly isn't a reason to hold Sanders up as the 'electable candidate', he's not.

Suppose Biden hops in?  He might end up getting most of his support from Hillary voters, which perhaps leaves an opening for Sanders. Maybe.

Yeah, as Michael Tomasky mentioned who better to play the role of Democrats savior than a guy who ran for president twice, was on a presidential primary ballot one time and got a whopping 1%?
Torie's and the other Republicans concern trolling is a truly a sight to behold.

[Torie]

You just cannot stop yourself from indulging in personal attacks can you px? Anyway, I was just throwing the idea out there. I guess if Biden gets in, we will find out. If he doesn't, we won't.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You just cannot stop yourself from indulging in personal attacks can you px?

Calling you for your concern trolling is a personal attack? Please, you've been doing that for years. Let's not start about how many times you did the same thing with Obamacare, predicting doom and gloom since it was voted.

Also, you might find this article useful too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/upshot/likable-enough-clintons-exaggerated-favorability-problem.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

The underlying theory is, as The Post piece put it, that “presidential politics tends to be dominated by personality” and that Mrs. Clinton “may be hard pressed to win a traditional presidential election in which likability matters most.” Likewise, a Los Angeles Times article approvingly cited the maxim that “it’s often said that elections can boil down to a contest of who would a voter rather have a beer with.”

None of these claims are supported by the data.

...

Candidate perceptions are not a good predictor of the ultimate election outcome, especially this early. In April 1992, for instance, a Gallup poll found that Bill Clinton’s ratings were 34 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, but he went on to defeat George H.W. Bush by more than five percentage points in the popular vote seven months later. By contrast, even though an April 2008 Gallup poll found that 60 percent of Americans had a favorable view of John McCain, he ended up losing to Barack Obama by more than seven percentage points.