When will Sanders lead a primary poll outside of Vermont (if ever)?

[Mr. Morden]

Latest WMUR/UNH poll of NH has him just six points away from Clinton:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=217001.0

Might be an outlier, but Marist also had him 13 points away and Suffolk had him down 10 last month.  So at the very least, he's doing much better than he was a few months ago, when he was losing by 40 points.  OTOH, much of the gain could be attributed just to increased name recognition, and there's only so much more he can gain on that score.

So will we soon see a poll of either NH or some other state where Sanders is in the lead?

Also, is anyone else having flashbacks to 1999?:

http://www.unh.edu/news/news_releases/1999/september/tm_19990913bradley-gore.html

[ElectionsGuy]

In the next few months, I expect him to lead in New Hampshire and possibly Maine too (if it ever gets polled)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd say 1-2 months.

[Skye]

Yeah, he could lead in New Hampshire, but I doubt he'll last long enough to lead anywhere else.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He'll lead in at least 1 poll in Iowa, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and Minnesota.

[PPT Spiral]

Shortly after whenever the first debate happens.

[Crumpets]

A Gravis poll from February showed Hillary 8 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren in Montana. I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie's ahead there now, although their primary isn't until June 7th, and I have a hard time seeing Bernie staying in that late. Overall, I think the states he's most like to carry are in order: Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and Washington.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A Gravis poll from February showed Hillary 8 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren in Montana. I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie's ahead there now, although their primary isn't until June 7th, and I have a hard time seeing Bernie staying in that late. Overall, I think the states he's most like to carry are in order: Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and Washington.

I suppose if we're going to rely on Gravis polls, there was one in Washington in May that had Hillary up only 9. So who knows what we get in the next Gravis poll there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There's a chance he'll do better than Hilary in rural white conservative states, especially those with a populist tradition. Not that anybody will bother polling, say, the Dakotas so it's all moot.

[tgards79]

Really?  Never.  Bernie is not happening.

[Kingpoleon]

Really?  Never.  Bernie is not happening.

Likely either a month or so after Biden gets in, or during the last few debates. Even if Biden doesn't get in, Sanders is in striking distance in New Hampshire and Minnesota, and he could reliably contest the nomination.

[Eraserhead]

Gravis has Hillary only beating Sanders by 4% in New Hampshire with Warren at 8%.

I imagine that Sanders will be leading in a New Hampshire poll very soon, possibly within the next two weeks or so.

[/]

Shortly after whenever the first debate happens.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

The correct answer was approximately one week after I made this thread.

[The Other Castro]

*bump*

The correct answer was approximately one week after I made this thread.

This is beautiful.

[Deaddogseye]

Apparently today -- in NH.

[Famous Mortimer]

If I were a Sanders strategist, I would advise campaigning more in Oregon and Hawaii and Minnesota. Maybe even running some ads there. While the actual primaries are so far away as not to matter, the media coverage if he started coming in first in polls in a bunch of different states, would provide him serious momentum that would help in IA and NH.

[/]

Gee, I wonder.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

He's leading in Vermont, New Hampshire and essentially within the MoE in Oregon.....so...

[JRP1994]

Really?  Never.  Bernie is not happening.

Yeah, this was always projected to be a close race. Clinton was never expected to sweep all the states except Vermont.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's a chance he'll do better than Hilary in rural white conservative states, especially those with a populist tradition. Not that anybody will bother polling, say, the Dakotas so it's all moot.

Yes, the rural white conservative states like Hawaii.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

OH i love the WRONGNESS in this thread from many who post today.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

OH i love the WRONGNESS in this thread from many who post today.

XDDDDD

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Xing]

Well, you know what they say about hindsight...