NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump
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  NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump
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Author Topic: NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump  (Read 7031 times)
King
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« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2015, 09:45:34 AM »

Obama was down 42-50 to Romney in September 2011 in the WMUR poll.

http://www.wmur.com/Primary-Poll-Shows-Romney-With-Strong-Lead/11839858

This thread should be retitled Clinton in excellent shape, dominating against Trump.

Because poll unskewing worked so well in 2014, right?

I'm not unskewing this poll. I'm accepting it is accurate and Clinton only being down 1-2 points to most of the field and leading the current frontrunner by 8 points during a complete saturation of the market by Republicans and her main primary opponent (aka getting outspent 18 to 1) only shows this is safe D.
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mencken
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« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2015, 09:48:39 AM »

Obama was down 42-50 to Romney in September 2011 in the WMUR poll.

http://www.wmur.com/Primary-Poll-Shows-Romney-With-Strong-Lead/11839858

This thread should be retitled Clinton in excellent shape, dominating against Trump.

Because poll unskewing worked so well in 2014, right?

I'm not unskewing this poll. I'm accepting it is accurate and Clinton only being down 1-2 points to most of the field and leading the current frontrunner by 8 points during a complete saturation of the market by Republicans and her main primary opponent (aka getting outspent 18 to 1) only shows this is safe D.

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_winter_senate013114.pdf
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King
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« Reply #27 on: August 06, 2015, 10:00:11 AM »

Nice irrelevant link that challenges no point I made.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #28 on: August 06, 2015, 10:22:48 AM »

Can't decide which state is biggee fools' gold for Republicans, New Hampshire or Michigan?

Pennsylvania?
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Skye
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« Reply #29 on: August 06, 2015, 10:33:00 AM »

According to most users on this forum, every swing state but North Carolina and Ohio is fool's gold for the GOP.
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King
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« Reply #30 on: August 06, 2015, 10:42:08 AM »

According to most users on this forum, every swing state but North Carolina and Ohio is fool's gold for the GOP.

The simple rule should be that if it didn't vote for W in 2004, why in the hell would it vote for Jeb in 2016? Republicans don't have a transformational candidate, a bad economy, or really anything to earn picking off a Kerry state for no reason.

NH, PA, MN, MI, WI, NV, NM, VA. They just concede those states.... oh wait...

Bottom line: We can read into these early polls as much as we want, the election is still unpredictable.

They should concede these states. Complete waste of time.

The other four are winnable, but they are showing no interest in winning them.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #31 on: August 06, 2015, 11:31:20 AM »

According to most users on this forum, every swing state but North Carolina and Ohio is fool's gold for the GOP.

The simple rule should be that if it didn't vote for W in 2004, why in the hell would it vote for Jeb in 2016? Republicans don't have a transformational candidate, a bad economy, or really anything to earn picking off a Kerry state for no reason.

NH, PA, MN, MI, WI, NV, NM, VA. They just concede those states.... oh wait...

Bottom line: We can read into these early polls as much as we want, the election is still unpredictable.

They should concede these states. Complete waste of time.

The other four are winnable, but they are showing no interest in winning them.

I think someone like Kasich wins NH before NV.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2015, 11:33:47 AM »

According to most users on this forum, every swing state but North Carolina and Ohio is fool's gold for the GOP.

The simple rule should be that if it didn't vote for W in 2004, why in the hell would it vote for Jeb in 2016? Republicans don't have a transformational candidate, a bad economy, or really anything to earn picking off a Kerry state for no reason.

NH, PA, MN, MI, WI, NV, NM, VA. They just concede those states.... oh wait...

Bottom line: We can read into these early polls as much as we want, the election is still unpredictable.

They should concede these states. Complete waste of time.

The other four are winnable, but they are showing no interest in winning them.

I think someone like Kasich wins NH before NV.
Yeah probably, but King is still in the "Hillary is unbeatable" stage
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mds32
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« Reply #33 on: August 06, 2015, 01:14:34 PM »

According to most users on this forum, every swing state but North Carolina and Ohio is fool's gold for the GOP.

Most of those users think AZ and GA are going to the Democrats for Clinton.
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King
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« Reply #34 on: August 06, 2015, 02:09:25 PM »

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #35 on: August 06, 2015, 02:41:26 PM »

Romney was leading in this state by 10 points in October 2011. He led it by 4 points according to one poll in October 2012. Bush led Clinton by 6 points in the last WMUR poll. So this is positive movement for her. My point...it is early and NH is fickle. Don't be surprised if she is down by 10 in two months and up by 10 in six months.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: August 06, 2015, 05:00:09 PM »

If Clinton loses OH; the GOP can stop Clinton at 268; but Romney tried that method & failed.
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Xing
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« Reply #37 on: August 07, 2015, 11:31:16 PM »

It was the most Democratic "swing state" in 2012, even more Democratic than PA (not counting WI as a swing state).

IA and NV weren't swing states? I could see IA going Republican before NH, but I'm pretty sure Republicans will win NH before they win NV.
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RFayette
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« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2015, 02:18:20 PM »

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.

A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course.  I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.

My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #39 on: August 08, 2015, 02:25:33 PM »

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.

A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course.  I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.

My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.

That's were things start getting tricky.
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RFayette
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« Reply #40 on: August 08, 2015, 02:40:22 PM »

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.

A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course.  I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.

My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.

That's were things start getting tricky.

Obviously, it depends on who gets nominated in 2016.  If Walker gets nominated and loses narrowly (less than 4 points) to Clinton, which I see as a distinct possibility, a fairly moderate Republican would have a very good chance in 2020 and would be all but certain to win with a 2019 or 2020 recession.  If a "moderate" (Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich) wins in 2016 but loses the general, a conservative Republican would likely win in 2020 for the nomination, probably a Walker or Cruz type character.  With a 2019 recession, I'd predict Clinton would be a slight underdog, though it would be about 2015.

If Trump wins the nomination or runs 3rd party, then I have no clue what the GOP will do in 2016.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2015, 04:51:55 PM »

I think Hilary has solidified her base; & her support with indy women will only grow; since her primary support is expanding.

She will beat any GOP that comes along; even Jeb. But, Trump is leading primary.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #42 on: August 09, 2015, 12:36:16 PM »

Start.  Polling.  Kasich.
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