NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump

[RFayette]

I wish they had polled Sanders against the Republicans. I bet he does better than Clinton here.

Almost certainly.  My position is that the economy of 2016 will make or break this election:  if GDP growth is at least 2% (this is somewhat arbitrary, but is based on the idea of the economy being characterized as at least "treading water"), Hillary will win, if not, then a Bush/Rubio/Rand/Kasich/Walker will defeat her.  If Trump is the nominee, then Hillary would likely win even with a full-out recession.  This applies to both NH and the nation.

[RFayette]

Obama was down 10 points in New Hampshire in August 2011.

The state has a lot of very easily persuaded voters IMO.

[RFayette]

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.

A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course.  I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.

My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.

[RFayette]

lol at this delusional strawmanning. Still no argument as to why the f- a Kerry 2004 state would go GOP in 2016 for no damn reason other than it makes it convenient to imagine a scenario where Hillary loses.

A 2016 recession is a small but real possibility, of course.  I agree that the GOP is heavily the underdog in New Hampshire and any other Kerry '04 state, but there are a lot of unknowns that will come into play before the election.

My personal opinion is that Hillary will get 1 term and due to a 2019 recession, will get booted by a moderate GOPer.

That's were things start getting tricky.

Obviously, it depends on who gets nominated in 2016.  If Walker gets nominated and loses narrowly (less than 4 points) to Clinton, which I see as a distinct possibility, a fairly moderate Republican would have a very good chance in 2020 and would be all but certain to win with a 2019 or 2020 recession.  If a "moderate" (Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich) wins in 2016 but loses the general, a conservative Republican would likely win in 2020 for the nomination, probably a Walker or Cruz type character.  With a 2019 recession, I'd predict Clinton would be a slight underdog, though it would be about 2015.

If Trump wins the nomination or runs 3rd party, then I have no clue what the GOP will do in 2016.