Do you think all 17 major GOP candidates will make it to the Iowa Caucuses?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As the question states, do you think everyone will make it to Iowa? Or will at one or more drop out pre-Iowa?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One or more will drop out.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course not.  When was the last time we made it to Iowa without anyone dropping out, let alone a field this big?

[dudeabides]

Santorum may drop out to avoid embarrassment. Jindal is not going to pick up steam. Some scandal with Trump could come up.

[The Other Castro]

I'd be surprised if we had more than 10 by then.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd be surprised if we had more than 10 by then.

Agreed.

Likelihood of dropping out:

(0. Mark Everson)
1. Jim Gilmore
2. Bobby Jindal
3. George Pataki
4. Donald Trump
5. Rick Santorum
6. Carly Fiorina
7. Rick Perry
8. Jeb Bush

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Jindal, Pataki, Santorum, and Gilmore will all be long gone. Fiorina and Perry will probably fade out too.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Reince Priebus will have struck a deal with Trump to drop out before the Iowa caucus.

[tmthforu94]

Santorum will likely drop out - his base from 2012 has collapsed and spread to other, more viable candidates. Pataki will also likely drop out by the end of the year unless his poll numbers in New Hampshire start to improve. As for Jindal, I think he has just enough support to make it to Iowa, but will probably drop out right after. Gilmore strikes me as the guy who will stick around far longer than he should (ala Duncan Hunter 2008).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Anything is possible at this point. Santorum can argue that he was polling badly in 2012 and he rose up to being the front runner.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These will be in

Scott Walker
 John Kasich
 Jeb Bush
 Rand Paul
 Donald Trump (ego to big to drop out until the GOP convention where he drops out unless Bush wins nomination in which he decides to run as an indpendent)

everyone else will have dropped out

[jimrtex]

As the question states, do you think everyone will make it to Iowa? Or will at one or more drop out pre-Iowa?

Why does it matter if they drop out or not?

The Republican caucuses have a secret ballot for president, but that is not binding on the precinct in how it chooses delegates for the county convention.  Perhaps a caucus might have persons speak on behalf of a candidate.  But the ballot will probably be by write-in.

No one is going to volunteer to speak for Pataki or Gilmore. Walker and Bush will have precinct leaders everywhere. Cruz, Paul, and Kasich will have precinct leaders in most places.  Perry might have some.  He actually has some experience farming, and is a strong person-to-person campaigner.

Christie might have some, but his style doesn't fit Iowa.  Trump might have trouble organizing precinct leaders, but he can still get a lot of votes that will be reported, even if meaningless.

After the secret ballot, the precinct leaders for Walker and Bush will try to bulldoze the precinct, claiming that they need to stick together.  Campaigns like Cruz and Paul will resist (except in precincts where they might be in control), and push for a split delegation.  Any odd delegates for Fiorina, Carson, Rubio, Graham, will probably go along.

Filing for the early primaries will be past, and they can wait until after New Hampshire and South Carolina to stop filing.

And at this point would an endorsement by any candidate who might withdraw matter?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As the question states, do you think everyone will make it to Iowa? Or will at one or more drop out pre-Iowa?

Why does it matter if they drop out or not?

The Republican caucuses have a secret ballot for president, but that is not binding on the precinct in how it chooses delegates for the county convention.  Perhaps a caucus might have persons speak on behalf of a candidate.  But the ballot will probably be by write-in.

No one is going to volunteer to speak for Pataki or Gilmore. Walker and Bush will have precinct leaders everywhere. Cruz, Paul, and Kasich will have precinct leaders in most places.  Perry might have some.  He actually has some experience farming, and is a strong person-to-person campaigner.

Christie might have some, but his style doesn't fit Iowa.  Trump might have trouble organizing precinct leaders, but he can still get a lot of votes that will be reported, even if meaningless.

After the secret ballot, the precinct leaders for Walker and Bush will try to bulldoze the precinct, claiming that they need to stick together.  Campaigns like Cruz and Paul will resist (except in precincts where they might be in control), and push for a split delegation.  Any odd delegates for Fiorina, Carson, Rubio, Graham, will probably go along.

Filing for the early primaries will be past, and they can wait until after New Hampshire and South Carolina to stop filing.

And at this point would an endorsement by any candidate who might withdraw matter?

Under the new GOP nomination rules, pledged delegates from caucus states will be required to vote in some way that is based on the results of the caucus. Non-Binding caucuses are strictly prohibited. No matter who the county convention decides on for delegates, they will be required by party rules to vote according to the actual caucus results on the national convention's first (and likely only) ballot.

Pledged delegates from primary states will vote according to the primary results, just as they did in 2012.

There are a few unpledged delegates in each state, called superdelegates, but their votes don't matter unless it's a brokered convention. You can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gilmore won't make it to Iowa. Pataki is probably the next most likely to drop out.

Anything is possible at this point. Santorum can argue that he was polling badly in 2012 and he rose up to being the front runner.

I think he drops out after losing Iowa.

[BlueSwan]

At least 5 will drop out before Iowa, IMO.

[jimrtex]

As the question states, do you think everyone will make it to Iowa? Or will at one or more drop out pre-Iowa?

The Republican caucuses have a secret ballot for president, but that is not binding on the precinct in how it chooses delegates for the county convention.  Perhaps a caucus might have persons speak on behalf of a candidate.  But the ballot will probably be by write-in.

After the secret ballot, the precinct leaders for Walker and Bush will try to bulldoze the precinct, claiming that they need to stick together.  Campaigns like Cruz and Paul will resist (except in precincts where they might be in control), and push for a split delegation.  Any odd delegates for Fiorina, Carson, Rubio, Graham, will probably go along.

Filing for the early primaries will be past, and they can wait until after New Hampshire and South Carolina to stop filing.

And at this point would an endorsement by any candidate who might withdraw matter?

Under the new GOP nomination rules, pledged delegates from caucus states will be required to vote in some way that is based on the results of the caucus. Non-Binding caucuses are strictly prohibited. No matter who the county convention decides on for delegates, they will be required by party rules to vote according to the actual caucus results on the national convention's first (and likely only) ballot.

Pledged delegates from primary states will vote according to the primary results, just as they did in 2012.

There are a few unpledged delegates in each state, called superdelegates, but their votes don't matter unless it's a brokered convention. You can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

My interpretation of Rules of Republican Party is that the binding of delegates only occurs at a state or CD convention (in caucus states).

[Publius]

Santorum 2012 probably means all candidates hang in until the week before Iowa. He was nowhere a month before Iowa and ended up (retroactively) winning it. Now all campaigns are telling themselves they can do that in either Iowa or New Hampshire. They don't mind not popping before that because they'd rather pop then. But a couple who have yet to grow by about a week before will drop out to save embarrassment and maybe endorse a like-minded candidate.

[TDAS04]

No.