Subjective Odds that candidates win the nomination (8/15)

[Mehmentum]

Based off of this thread.

I also posted one of these back in January.

Republicans:
Bush: 26%
Walker: 19%
Rubio: 11%
Kasich: 9%
Cruz: 9%
Huckabee: 5%
Trump: 5%
Paul: 4%
Fiorina: 3%
Christie: 3%
Carson: 2%
Perry: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Jindal: 1%
The Rest: 1%

Democrats:
Clinton: 83%
Biden: 5%
Sanders: 5%
Webb, O'Malley & Chafee: 1%
Other Dark Horse/Savior Candidate: 6%

[mencken]

I had Bush around ~50% until this week. It seems increasingly probable that he will wilt once he actually has to campaign. However, I don't really want to give the surplus to Walker, who even if well-positioned to win Iowa seems too boring to make use of it. Rubio is tempting but I am still not convinced he actually wants to win so much as position himself for 2020.

Bush - 40%
Walker - 15%
Cruz - 10%
Rubio - 10%
Kasich - 10%
Fiorina - 5%
Field - 10%

Field mostly represents Jindal, Christie, Paul, and the possibility of Romney being called out of retirement.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

GOP:
Walker- 30%
Bush- 28%
Rubio- 25%
Kasich- 6%
Romney- 4% (yes, you read that right)
Trump- 3%
Paul- 1%
Huckabee- 1%
Field- 2%

DEM:
Clinton- 85%
Biden- 10%
Sanders- 4%
Field- 1%

[Pyro]

GOP:
Bush: 28%
Kasich: 17%
Rubio: 15%
Walker: 14%
Cruz: 12%
Paul: 7%
Others incl. Trump: <5%

Dems:
Clinton: 93%
Biden: 5%
Sanders: 1%
Webb, O'Malley & Chafee: 1%

Trump Party:
Trump: 1000%

[IceSpear]

Walker: 35%
Bush: 30%
Rubio: 10%
Cruz: 5%
Trump: 5%
Paul: 5%
Kasich: 5%
Everyone else combined: 5%

Clinton: 99%
Someone else: 1%

[SWE]

Bush: 40%
Rubio: 30%
Kasich: 25%
Walker: 3%
Everyone else combined: 2%

[Crumpets]

GOP:
Bush: 38%
Kasich: 9%
Walker: 9%
Rubio: 8%
Trump: 7%
Huckabee: 5%
Cruz: 5%
Carson: 4%
Paul: 4%
Fiorina 3%
Christie: 2%
Perry: 2%
Graham: 1%
Jindal: 1%
Pataki: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Gilmore: 0%

Democrats:
Hillary: 92%
Sanders: 4%
Biden: 2%
O'Malley: 1%
Webb: 1%
Chafee: 0%

Also, probability Trump runs 3rd party: 15%

[The Other Castro]

Republicans:
Rubio: 28%
Kasich: 19%
Walker: 18%
Bush: 15%
Cruz: 12%
Paul: 4%
Christie: 3%
Other: 1%

Democrats:
Clinton: 75%
Sanders: 15%
Biden: 8%
Other: 2%

[/]

Republican:
Bush - 36%
Trump - 34%
Rubio - 10%
Walker - 10%
Kasich - 3%
Cruz - 2%
Christie - 1%
Huckabee - 1%
Paul - 1%
Fiorina - 1%
Carson - 1%
Santorum - 0%
Perry - 0%
Jindal - 0%
Graham - 0%
Pataki - 0%
Gilmore - 0%

Democratic:
Clinton - 94%
Sanders - 5%
O'Malley - 1%
Webb - 0%
Chafee - 0%

[mencken]

Kraut's opinion:

Clinton 75%
Field 25%
Sanders 0%

Rubio 25%
Bush 20%
Walker 20%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 10%
Fiorina 10%
Field 5%
Trump 0%

[Mehmentum]

The Atlas Average:

Bush: 30.5%
Rubio: 19.1%
Walker: 17.3%
Kasich: 10.4%
Cruz: 6.0%
Trump: 5.4%
Paul: 3.2%
All others: 8.1%

[mencken]

The Atlas Average:

Bush: 30.5%
Rubio: 19.1%
Walker: 17.3%
Kasich: 10.4%
Cruz: 6.0%
Trump: 5.4%
Paul: 3.2%
All others: 8.1%

Atlas is pretty similar to Nate Silver's subjective odds except much more bearish on Walker and slightly more bullish on Cruz and Kasich. On the other hand, Atlas is very bearish on Bush's chances compared to BetFair, with the remaining serious candidates pretty evenly dividing the surplus.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I got the itch to see the horses, and y'all keep calling these "odds", so:
smilo's Racebook

#1   Marco Yolo    7 to 3 (30%)
#2   Trumping to Conclusions   6 to 1 (14ish%?)
#3   Bald As Brass (Walker)   8 to 1 (12.5%)
#4   Joltin' Jebby   9 to 1 (10%)
#5   Cruz Missile   11 to 1 (9%)
#6   Bang for Your Huck   13 to 1 (7%)
#7   Calamitous Kasich   20 to 1 (5%)
#8   Christie-Crossed   33 to 1 (3%)
#9   In the Line of Fired (Fiorina)   33 to 1 (3%)
#10   Paul's Prince   50 to 1 (2%)
#11   The Tanned Twinkle (Jindal)   50 to 1 (2%)
#12   Dark Horse (Carson)   99 to 1 (1%)
#13   The Perry Last Thing   500 to 1 (.2%)
#14   Santorum Surprise   999 to 1 (.1%)
#15   Little Miss Lindsey   999 to 1 (.1%)
#16   Prancin' Pataki   999 to 1 (.1%)
   Millard Gilmore   Healthy Scratch

Now tell me: who wouldn't put their last dollar down on Santorum Surprise with those odds?

This may or may not be centaurs running instead of horses...

[Maxwell]

25% Rubio
15% Walker
15% Bush
15% Cruz
10% Fiorina
5% Kasich
5% Trump
5% Carson
5% Field

[dudeabides]

GOP
Bush 51%
Walker 19%
Rubio 10%
Kasich 7%
Huckabee 5%
Fiorina 3%
Cruz 2%
Paul 1%
Trump 1%
Others 1%

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 42%
Bernie Sanders 42%
Joe Biden 15%
Others 1%

[muon2]

I got the itch to see the horses, and y'all keep calling these "odds", so:
smilo's Racebook

#1   Marco Yolo    7 to 3 (30%)
#2   Trumping to Conclusions   6 to 1 (14ish%?)
#3   Bald As Brass (Walker)   8 to 1 (12.5%)
#4   Joltin' Jebby   9 to 1 (10%)
#5   Cruz Missile   11 to 1 (9%)
#6   Bang for Your Huck   13 to 1 (7%)
#7   Calamitous Kasich   20 to 1 (5%)
#8   Christie-Crossed   33 to 1 (3%)
#9   In the Line of Fired (Fiorina)   33 to 1 (3%)
#10   Paul's Prince   50 to 1 (2%)
#11   The Tanned Twinkle (Jindal)   50 to 1 (2%)
#12   Dark Horse (Carson)   99 to 1 (1%)
#13   The Perry Last Thing   500 to 1 (.2%)
#14   Santorum Surprise   999 to 1 (.1%)
#15   Little Miss Lindsey   999 to 1 (.1%)
#16   Prancin' Pataki   999 to 1 (.1%)
   Millard Gilmore   Healthy Scratch

Now tell me: who wouldn't put their last dollar down on Santorum Surprise with those odds?

This may or may not be centaurs running instead of horses...

Thank you for actually posting odds. I've corrected Krauthammer's to the way he wrote them.

Kraut's opinion:

Clinton 1-3
Field 3-1
Sanders 0

Rubio 3-1
Bush 4-1
Walker 4-1
Cruz 9-1
Kasich 9-1
Fiorina 9-1
Field 19-1
Trump 0

[Senator Cris]

30% Bush
25% Rubio
15% Walker
10% Kasich
5% Huckabee
4% Fiorina
3% Trump
2% Christie
2% Cruz
2% Romney
1% Jindal
1% Paul
0% Others

[Phony Moderate]

A Trump victory would be less extraordinary than a Corbyn victory.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A Trump victory would be less extraordinary than a Corbyn victory.

Well, we'll have to wait a while on the next UK general election. But if Labour can pick Corbyn as their leader, it seems like the Democrats picking Sanders should be a no-brainer.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A Trump victory would be less extraordinary than a Corbyn victory.

Well, we'll have to wait a while on the next UK general election. But if Labour can pick Corbyn as their leader, it seems like the Democrats picking Sanders should be a no-brainer.

Picking a leader is one thing, picking a leader that can connect with those lost voters is clearly another.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Republicans:
Bush: 30%
Walker: 13%
Rubio: 11%
Kasich: 10%
Fiorina: 6%
Cruz: 6%
Huckabee: 5%
Trump: 5%
Paul: 3%
Christie: 3%
Carson: 2%
Perry: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Jindal: 1%
The Rest: 1%

Democrats:
Clinton: 89%
Biden: 5%
Sanders: 5%
Webb, O'Malley & Chafee: 1%
Other Dark Horse/Savior Candidate: 2%

[Publius]

GOP:
Bush: 30 (I had this at about 35-40 before the debate)
Walker: 22
Rubio: 22
Kasich: 8
Cruz: 8
Paul: 3
Christie: 3
Carson: 1
Trump: 1
All others combined: 2

Dems:
Clinton: 80
Biden: 15
Sanders: 2
Webb: 2
O'Malley: 0.9
Chafee: 0.1

[Leinad]

Romney...oh my...

Anyway:

Democrats:
Hillary - 80%
Biden - 10%
Bernie - 6%
O'Malley - 1%
Webb - 0.7%
Chafee - 0.2%
Other - 2% (Hillary implosion/health and a late entry)

Republican
Jeb - 32% (hard to bet against the establishment)
Walker - 30%
Rubio - 13%
Cruz - 9% (has major appeal to Tea Partiers, SocCons, and even disaffecteds, but the establishment hate him and there's not that great of a chance that he gets all those groups behind him)
Kasich - 5% (only if Jeb starts struggling and he takes the establishment from him and Rubio)
Huckabee - 2%
Carson - 2%
Trump - 1.5%
Fiorina - 1%
Rand - 1% (KEEP HOPE ALIVE!!!)
Christie - 0.5%
Jindal - 0.5%
Romney 3.0 - 0.4%
Perry - 0.3%
Santorum - 0.25%
Graham - 0.2%
Reince Priebus - 0.2% (goes rogue nominates himself at the convention-turn-hostage situation)
Pataki - 0.1%
Gilmore - 0.05%
Other - 1%

[Senator Cris]

UPDATE:

Up: Kasich, Trump
Down: Walker, Fiorina, Others

30% Bush
25% Rubio
13% Walker
11% Kasich
7% Trump
5% Huckabee
2% Fiorina
2% Christie
2% Cruz
1% Jindal
1% Paul
1% Others

[eric82oslo]

Walker at 30% is absolutely absurd. Even if I was one of those born in Wisconsin - and hallelujah does this forum have a ton (literally probably 5 tons but okey) of Republicans born in exactly that state, who would think it would be absolutely insane crazy to even give Walker 3% (!!!) at this point, let alone 30!! Poor guy who gave them 30!! Even Ted Cruz has WAY higher odds to win the Republican nomination at this point! The debate showed that Cruz (despite my personal objections) has at the very least 5 times as high an IQ as Cruz, and then I'm being extremely mild to Walker for sure. Walker who confessed that he let the entire worldvision rest on 12 men With white Hoods who he was introduced to in Saudi Arabia of all Places (!!). I'm serious, I'm not even making this up!! And some guy claimed he has 30% (!!) chance of winning the Republican nomination! Even Trump has at the verty least 10 times greater chances at winning the nomination, and Trump is literally as stupid as a person can get!