Does anybody here really think Jeb will be the nominee anymore?
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  Does anybody here really think Jeb will be the nominee anymore?
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Author Topic: Does anybody here really think Jeb will be the nominee anymore?  (Read 4841 times)
King
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« on: August 07, 2015, 11:57:25 AM »

He was awful in the debate. A complete nothing of a candidate. If it wasn't for his fundraising and last name, he'd be sitting at the kiddie table debate with Jim Gilmore.
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2015, 12:01:48 PM »

He's more likely to be the nominee than anyone else. He was perfectly competent in the debate. He will hold on to most of his support. Wait until the candidates flesh out their policy positions and have to defend them. Then it will be a better time to assess whether Jeb can make it or not, as compared to some other candidate. Over time, what is BS will slowly sink in to the voters, as those positions are commented upon in the press. Right now stuff is very fluid, as it should be.
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Blair
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2015, 12:02:15 PM »

It does seem strange, he's a relatively moderate (Tea Party wave standards) Governor from the 2000's who doesn't have much of a legacy outside of economic growth built on a housing bubble.
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2015, 12:03:38 PM »

There's still a chance for him to clinch the nomination. But I agree he looked very wooden; a few times he was really able to connect with anyone in the room. Many candidates will shinned brightly that night and now it's even more confusing as to who will get the nomination.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2015, 12:03:50 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 12:05:23 PM by King »

He's more likely to be the nominee than anyone else. He was perfectly competent in the debate. He will hold on to most of his support. Wait until the candidates flesh out their policy positions and have to defend them. Then it will be a better time to assess whether Jeb can make it or not, as compared to some other candidate. Over time, what is BS will slowly sink in to the voters, as those positions are commented upon in the press. Right now stuff is very fluid, as it should be.

Most of his 10% or so support? It's not enough. Rubio and Kasich are superior establishmenty candidates at this point.

Jeb was chosen to enter this race because he had a pedigree and was supposed to be a skilled politician. That's why he's racking up money. But he looked completely outmatched last night like he's new to politics. Combine this with his gaffes on the trail already and it's clear he's not a good politician.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2015, 12:05:49 PM »

He's more likely to be the nominee than anyone else. He was perfectly competent in the debate. He will hold on to most of his support. Wait until the candidates flesh out their policy positions and have to defend them. Then it will be a better time to assess whether Jeb can make it or not, as compared to some other candidate. Over time, what is BS will slowly sink in to the voters, as those positions are commented upon in the press. Right now stuff is very fluid, as it should be.

This.

My odds, which show a slight edge for Jeb, will remain as is until we get reliable post debate polling clearly painting a different picture.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2015, 12:06:39 PM »

He's more likely to be the nominee than anyone else. He was perfectly competent in the debate. He will hold on to most of his support. Wait until the candidates flesh out their policy positions and have to defend them. Then it will be a better time to assess whether Jeb can make it or not, as compared to some other candidate. Over time, what is BS will slowly sink in to the voters, as those positions are commented upon in the press. Right now stuff is very fluid, as it should be.

Most of his 10% or so support? It's not enough. Rubio and Kasich are superior establishmenty candidates at this point.

Correct, 10% is inadequate to secure the nomination. So what? The first voting starts 6 months from now.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2015, 12:11:04 PM »

I still think it'll be Scott Walker.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2015, 12:17:45 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 12:24:03 PM by The Trump Card (2016 Edition) »

Several reasons for why Jeb is a lousy candidate.

First, Jeb is too wonkish to be the Republican nominee in the year of our Lord and Savior 2016. Furthermore, his positions and record on a few critical right-wing litmus tests (Common Core, immigration, etc.) won't endear him to the base. Also, while a lot of the Establishment may still desperately want him, there is a growing realization that he is a terrible politician on the national stage even though he has mainstream conservative policy-making credentials. Moreover, the right-wing billionaire (Kochs et. al.) /SuperPAC money is behind Scott Walker, if anything.  Finally, his surname is still rather toxic among the electorate, and I question whether he really wants to be President as much as he did in the 90s (before his brother upstaged him) or if he feels that he is obligated to "redeem" his family name.

It won't be Jeb.  

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2015, 12:41:08 PM »

After the debate, I would say that it's a toss-up between Jeb and Rubio, though this debate probably will be mostly forgotten 2-3 months from now, and then Jeb might very well be back as the clear frontrunner. I would also say that Christie has a much sharper chance of becoming the nominee than Walker, judging by what we saw last night. If the rest of the campaign continues like this, Christie will have at least a 4-5 times stronger chance of becoming the nominee relative to Walker.
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xavier110
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2015, 01:03:18 PM »

He stammered through several questions -- did anyone else notice the stutter? Dude was possibly the most nervous one up there. He is not ready for primetime and the only rationale for his candidacy is that he is out there to boost the wealthy elites who benefited from his brother's and father's presidencies and to redeem his family name, which he also is simultaneously distancing himself from. Will amount to a total flop candidate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2015, 01:13:42 PM »

Besides the fact that Jeb makes Mitt Romney look charismatic, he simply doesn't seem to have the fire in the belly. It's like he goes through the motions of a campaign but deep in his heart he wishes the Republican establishment that recruited him would just leave him alone to enjoy his retirement.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2015, 01:15:04 PM »


Walker didn't self-destruct at the debate (which surprised me a little), but I have zero doubt that its coming. He's going to gaffe, badly, in front of the whole nation - the only question is when.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2015, 01:16:53 PM »

Yes. A dull performance in a debate doesn't negate his money nor the fact that he's basically competent enough to run a campaign.
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Donald Trump 2016 !
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2015, 01:41:30 PM »

He's still the frontrunner. The debate helped more than hurt him I think. He got better as the debate continued and sounded very competent and presidential. He's got a large war chest as well with plenty of establishment backing. He was a successful governor of a crucial swing state and has the best potential out of any of the candidates to reach out to hispanic voters.

He's still the likely nominee out of the current bunch.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2015, 01:58:47 PM »

Newt Gingrich completely destroyed everyone during the first several GOP debates in 2012. Mitt Romney, like Jeb Bush last night, had steady performances. Newt won two states.

In 2008, same thing - Mike Huckabee stood out as the best in debates, and he didn't win the nomination. John McCain had steady performances. Some would argue that McCain did better in the 2000 primary debates against Bush as well.

I'm a Jeb supporter, and I give him a grade of a B+ Christie did better, and Rubio did slightly better.
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Pyro
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2015, 02:03:05 PM »

Bush still has the backing of the party establishment and tons and tons of money to throw around.
Improving his debate skills couldn't hurt.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2015, 03:05:01 PM »

I do. The last time the GOP won the general election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972, and they are 5/6 on those elections. And although these kind of truisms are usually meaningless, they are something donors and party officials take a hard look at when choosing their candidate.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2015, 03:08:41 PM »

I do. The last time the GOP won the general election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972, and they are 5/6 on those elections. And although these kind of truisms are usually meaningless, they are something donors and party officials take a hard look at when choosing their candidate.

Reagan would have won without bush both times easily in 1980 and in 1984 so that point is moot
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2015, 03:14:27 PM »

I do. The last time the GOP won the general election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972, and they are 5/6 on those elections. And although these kind of truisms are usually meaningless, they are something donors and party officials take a hard look at when choosing their candidate.
The last time the Democrats won without a minority or Southerner on the ticket was 1940.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2015, 03:18:14 PM »

I do. The last time the GOP won the general election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972, and they are 5/6 on those elections. And although these kind of truisms are usually meaningless, they are something donors and party officials take a hard look at when choosing their candidate.
The last time the Democrats won without a minority or Southerner on the ticket was 1940.
Guess we won't be nominating Sanders/Warren then.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2015, 03:20:52 PM »

Bush still has the backing of the party establishment and tons and tons of money to throw around.
Improving his debate skills couldn't hurt.
Bush doesn't have the backing of the establishment.  If you look at who in the party has endorsed who, you'll see that barely anybody in elected office has endorsed a candidate.  They're certainly not falling over themselves to get behind Bush (or anybody else).  Instead the establishment is taking its time, waiting to see who among the significant number of establishment friendly candidates does well.

In 2012, Romney was the only candidate with a shot at establishment support (except for a brief moment when it looked like Perry could challenge him).  Today we have Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie all vying for the ideological space that Romney alone (okay yeah, and Huntsman) took up in 2012.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2015, 04:00:37 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 04:02:12 PM by heatmaster »

Look it's the first time in 13 years since he was in a debate setting. He's rusty; but he did better than a few others. Rubio came across as a credible contender. He has his own style. If he did bad as well as he did, I hate to see him on a really bad night. Also was there an expectations game in action regarding how well Jeb would or would not do? Don't think so. Oh in answer to that question, yep I think it will still be Jeb with bells on!
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2015, 05:36:45 PM »

Trump's antics and appeal has a shelf life.

He can only go so far and for so long with his campaign, which even now cannot really be considered as a serious candidacy.

At some point early on, his campaign is going to implode under the realization that his views and rhetoric are bizarre and over the top.

Jeb has an excellent chance of becoming the nominee.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2015, 05:37:43 PM »


This. I foresee the establishment vote eventually rallying around Scott Walker.
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