He's more likely to be the nominee than anyone else. He was perfectly competent in the debate. He will hold on to most of his support. Wait until the candidates flesh out their policy positions and have to defend them. Then it will be a better time to assess whether Jeb can make it or not, as compared to some other candidate. Over time, what is BS will slowly sink in to the voters, as those positions are commented upon in the press. Right now stuff is very fluid, as it should be.
Most of his 10% or so support? It's not enough. Rubio and Kasich are superior establishmenty candidates at this point.
Jeb was chosen to enter this race because he had a pedigree and was supposed to be a skilled politician. That's why he's racking up money. But he looked completely outmatched last night like he's new to politics. Combine this with his gaffes on the trail already and it's clear he's not a good politician.