Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:13:26 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6
Author Topic: Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina  (Read 9288 times)
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 07, 2015, 01:44:34 PM »
« edited: September 01, 2015, 04:21:25 PM by Likely Voter »

UPDATE Sept. 1
CNN has essentially added a 'bonus podium' to the debate. Here is the updated rule...
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/index.html
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So as of now that means that Fiorina would join the same 10 at the FOX debate. However, if she performs very poorly in polls released between now and the 10th she could lose that bonus podium.

original post

The next GOP debate will be on CNN on Sept. 16. Just like with FOX they will break it up into a primetime debate with 10 candidates and an early debate with the rest. The 10 are also determined by an average of the live phone polls, however instead of a rolling average of the last five (as done by FOX) it will be all the polls released over the 8 weeks before September 10th. We are now in week 3 of that 8 week period and there have already been nine polls released during that time. That means everyone has already banked a good percentage of what will factor into their final percentage (I will expand on this in a second post).

CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 9 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 0)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    21.8
2   Bush    12.8
3   Walker    11.6
4   Huckabee    6.2
5   Carson    6.1
6   Rubio    5.8
7   Cruz    5.7
8   Paul    5.6
9   Christie    3.3
10   Kasich    3.0

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.2
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Jindal    1.3
14   Fiorina    0.9
15   Graham    0.4
16   Pataki   0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

RE: Early Debate
There are also some differences here. Firstly there is a tie-breaker for 10th place (using average of polls from last two weeks and average of early state polls) so 11th place is certain to be in the early debate. Also there is a minimum threshold of needing to average 1% in 3 polls. So for Gilmore has only got 1% in one poll.  Lastly, CNN says that if by the time of the debate there are only 14 or less qualifying candidates they may break the debate up to have the top 8 in the primetime debate, so the likes of Christie and Kasich better hope that there aren't more than one drop out in the next few weeks.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2015, 01:45:25 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 01:52:18 PM by Likely Voter »

Why the CNN Debate May look a lot like the FOX debate, maybe even exactly the same.

If we assume that we continue to average 3 polls per week (which is actually high), then there would be 15 new polls before the CNN cutoff. And if we assume that you need 3% or more to make the debate (something that has held true for the last 3 months monitoring the FOX debate), then certain things about the CNN debate become clear.

1. Three candidates have already qualified for the CNN debate
Trump, Bush and Walker have already qualified, even if they scored 0% in every poll between now and the cutoff.

2. Five candidates are almost sure to qualify
Huckabee, Carson, Rubio, Cruz and Paul all just have to average 1% to 1.5% in the post FOX debate polls to get a spot in the CNN debate.

3. Three candidates are on the bubble
Christie and Kasich have to stay where they are or improve to keep their spots and if Perry can start averaging around 4% he could knoock one of them out.

4. The rest need to overperform to make it in

Because of starting off with such low poll numbers, the rest of the seven who were at the early Fox debate need to double, triple or more their current polling numbers to make it in. In general most need to be polling in the 4-5% range to be sure to make it.

EXAMPLE:
Let's say that in 15 polls between now and the CNN debate Fiorina averages 4%, Kasich and Christie average 3%, Rubio, Huckabee, Cruz and Paul all average 2% and Carson Averages 1%. In that scenario the only one who doesn't get into the CNN debate would be Carly. It is simple math.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2015, 01:59:44 PM »

I'm surprised that the CNN requirements seem to be harsher than the FOX requirements (e.g. 1% threshold, etc.), but as time goes by I guess they do need to start making the requirements stricter in order to actually whittle down the field.

But yeah, all indicators seem to imply that Gilmore won't even have a seat at the kiddy table.

I don't see any major changes within the next month, my best guess is that Trump's popularity will begin to slowly decline between now and then, which will help out basically all of the other candidates. Kasich, Fiorina, and Rubio will probably see the most improvement, but everyone will probably be helped out if Trump's popularity declines.

So now I guess the most exciting part will be to see how many of the kiddies (and possibly others) drop out between now and then. Probably not more than a few.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2015, 02:04:15 PM »

I'm surprised that the CNN requirements seem to be harsher than the FOX requirements (e.g. 1% threshold, etc.), but as time goes by I guess they do need to start making the requirements stricter in order to actually whittle down the field.

But yeah, all indicators seem to imply that Gilmore won't even have a seat at the kiddy table.

Actually FOX's original requirements were harsher. They required a 1% average over the last 5 polls. Based on that requirement, Pataki, Graham and Gilmore would not have been invited and it would have only had 4 people. And there were times that only 3 qualified. But last week FOX realized this and dropped the requirement down to simply being included in polls with no required minimum.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2015, 07:23:17 PM »

I suppose it's *possible* that Fiorina starts getting ~5% in the polls, since she's getting amazingly good media coverage at the moment.  That might be a stretch though.  And Kasich might fade, as his announcement bump tapers off.  So I could potentially see Kasich losing his spot to either Perry or Fiorina, but doubt there will be any other changes.

One thing that might help Kasich would be if he were to actually start coming in 2nd place in "real" NH polls (not Gravis).  I guess that might give him some positive national media coverage, which would help him at least stay at 3%.
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2015, 04:22:26 AM »

As you know, in this case the average is the sum of the candidates's percentages divided by the number of polls.

As of now, these are the numbers of the sum of the candidates's percentages:

Trump 196
Bush    115
Walker 104
Huckabee 56
Carson 55
Rubio 52
Cruz 51
Paul 50
Christie 30
Kasich 27
Perry 20
Santorum   13
Jindal 12
Fiorina 8
Graham 4
Pataki 4
Gilmore 1

Now, we are in week 4 (exactly 1 month before the deadline). Considered that there were 9 polls in the previous 4 weeks, I'm assuming there will be 9 polls in the next 4 weeks.
To get invited to the debate, Fiorina needs to lead Kasich by an average of 2.11% [19 (the difference between Kasich and Fiorina) divided by 9] or Christie by an average of 2.44% [22 divided by 9]. It's more difficult to kick out Paul, as she needs to lead him by an average of 4.67% [42 divided by 9] in the next polls.
Logged
Adriano Chiká
AdrianoChika
Rookie
**
Posts: 117
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2015, 09:50:15 AM »

I assume that the only change that will occur will be Christie fall and Fiorina enters the Top 10.
Logged
Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2015, 10:53:16 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2015, 10:55:52 AM by Bull Moose Base »

here comes Trump vs Fiorina…

Post-Debate Poll (NBC)
Trump 23%
Cruz 13%
Carson 11%
Fiorina 8%
Rubio 8%
Bush 7%
Walker 7%

Also, only 1 of top 4 with government experience? Ted Cruz.

Also, Bush + Walker + Rubio < Trump. And < Cruz + Carson.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2015, 06:40:33 PM »

Obviously the NBC online poll wont count to the CNN average but if live phone polls come out with the same results then Fiorina would certainly make her way into the top 10, likely knocking out Christie (if he continues to underperform Kasich).

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2015, 06:55:21 PM »

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.

Could there even be strategic debate skipping, to knock other candidates out of the main debate?  Let's say two 2nd tier candidates drop out within the next month, so the field is down to 15.  If Christie is knocked down to the JV debate, and decide to skip it, then you've only got 14.  So does CNN then use the option you mentioned in the OP, to reduce the 1st tier debate to just 8 candidates?  Thus by skipping, Christie prevents the 9th and 10th place candidates from getting primetime coverage?
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2015, 07:07:06 PM »

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.

Could there even be strategic debate skipping, to knock other candidates out of the main debate?  Let's say two 2nd tier candidates drop out within the next month, so the field is down to 15.  If Christie is knocked down to the JV debate, and decide to skip it, then you've only got 14.  So does CNN then use the option you mentioned in the OP, to reduce the 1st tier debate to just 8 candidates?  Thus by skipping, Christie prevents the 9th and 10th place candidates from getting primetime coverage?


I thought of that and it is possible. However, I think CNN would worry about a backlash. Let's say that Fiorina continues to poll in the 5-7% range all August and early September, which would put her in the middle of the pack in post-Fox debate polls, but overall CNN averaging would placer her in 9th or 10th place. So if there were two dropouts (from the campaign or even just the debate) then CNN would be faced with the decision of holding a Top 10 with Fiorina leaving only 4 for the JV debate or a Top 8, moving her into a six person JV debate. I think many would see that as arbitrary and unfair to Fiorina.

So it would be very risky for someone like Christie to skip the JV debate if the reason was just to kick Fiorina out of the Top 10. It is quite possible CNN wont exercise their option to change the primetime debate to a Top 8

Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2015, 07:25:22 PM »

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2015, 07:29:35 PM »

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.

Christie was in the main debate....

The other 3 could be out soon though, along with Jindal and Gilmore. Santorum will probably stay in through Iowa.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2015, 07:32:57 PM »

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.

Christie was in the main debate....

The other 3 could be out soon though, along with Jindal and Gilmore. Santorum will probably stay in through Iowa.

With what campaign? He keeps losing staffers like flies.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2015, 07:39:56 PM »

Christie was in the main debate....

I'm talking about the kiddie debate in September, which Christie is likely going to fall to. If you're not in the Top 10 after that one, it's about time to drop out.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2015, 07:40:09 PM »

Actually most of the Santorum staffers who left went to work for a new Santorum Super PAC. That is the new reality we live in. Campaigns usually die when they run out of money but this cycle allows them to live on via Super PACs, where money is easier to get. And in a way the second tier debates help these campaigns at least get some exposure. In years past they would just be shut out due to low polling and end due to low fundraising. 2016 is the cycle of the zombie campaign.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2015, 08:21:25 PM »

At what point do the kiddie table candidates start to drop out?

By this time in August, people like Pawlenty were exiting.

Maybe if they last one more kiddie debate, but if by October you haven't surged into the Top 10, I can't see why Perry, Graham, Pataki, or Christie would continue.

It might depend in part on whether there are any more kiddie debates after September.  We know that CNN will have one in September, but will the networks bother doing it in October and beyond?  Possibly not.  If you can't break into the top 10, and you can't get any more cable news airtime to promote your issues or feed your ego, because the networks won't even give you a kiddie debate to play in anymore, what's the point?
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2015, 04:21:22 PM »

The debate is being held at the Reagan library and Nancy Reagan along with CNN today officially invited 16 candidates (everyone but Gilmore). Although apparently Gilmore can make it in if he can just get to 1% in some more polls. CNN also had some details on the format....
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/11/politics/cnn-debate-nancy-reagan-invitations/index.html
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2015, 04:46:10 PM »

The debate is being held at the Reagan library and Nancy Reagan along with CNN today officially invited 16 candidates (everyone but Gilmore). Although apparently Gilmore can make it in if he can just get to 1% in some more polls. CNN also had some details on the format....
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/11/politics/cnn-debate-nancy-reagan-invitations/index.html

Sounds great that they'll do them back-to-back. I'd like the first debate to be longer than one hour though. Ideally, both debates would be two hours long, with the kiddie debate including nine candidates and the grown up debate having eight candidates. This way, the more serious candidates would get more airtime and questions each.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2015, 08:54:15 PM »

At least based on the very early post-debate polls we've seen (which are not live interview and won't count, but which presumably reflect what'll happen in the live interview polls), Fiorina looks like a strong bet to make it to the big boy debate, while every other Fox kiddie table candidate will be left out again.

So who will be knocked out if Fiorina is in?

Paul is struggling in recent polls, but he's probably far enough ahead in the existing polls they're including that he'll make it in.  I guess either Christie or Kasich will be relegated to the kiddie table, but I'm not sure which.  Christie and Kasich tied in the new Rasmussen poll, for example.  It could be a tight race between them to qualify.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,434
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2015, 10:16:37 PM »

Obviously the NBC online poll wont count to the CNN average but if live phone polls come out with the same results then Fiorina would certainly make her way into the top 10, likely knocking out Christie (if he continues to underperform Kasich).

This brings up an interesting question...would Christie (or anyone from the Fox top 10) attend the CNN JV debate? There is a certain humiliation to being relegated down from the primetime debate. According to Kasich's campaign manager, if Kasich didn't make the top 10 for the FOX debate he planned to spend the day in New Hampshire and skip the debate. Unsure if that means he would do the same for the CNN debate.
Fiorina showed the advantage for a Christie.

If he does well enough in the JV debate, it can resuscitate his campaign. His competition isn't as talented on-camera (I have not heard any claim that Rick Perry did better than any of the top ten), he'll have more time on camera, and the ratings are still going to be decent (The JV debate had better ratings than any of the 2012 primary debates.)
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2015, 09:50:59 AM »

New FOX News poll: Fiorina 5, Kasich 4, Christie and Paul 3.

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%
in order to tie with one of these candidates. If there will be a tie, other criteria will be used to determine who gets the 10th spot.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2015, 09:54:23 AM »

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%

Yep.  And in the new Fox poll, she's only leading Kasich by 1 and Christie by 2.  So it's very possible that she doesn't make it.
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2015, 09:59:33 AM »

Assuming that there will be another 8 polls before the deadline (September 10), Fiorina needs to:
- lead Kasich by an average of 2.25% or
- lead Christie by an average of 2.5% or
- lead Paul by an average of 5%

Yep.  And in the new Fox poll, she's only leading Kasich by 1 and Christie by 2.  So it's very possible that she doesn't make it.

And I'm assuming that there will be 8 polls. There could be fewer polls and with fewer polls, it would be hardest for Fiorina.
Logged
Angel of Death
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,411
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2015, 10:38:24 AM »

Given that the first kiddie debate was such a boon to her, I don't see why she should mind making it in another one.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.