2016: Democratic Outlook & Trump

[Col. Roosevelt]

I'm pretty worried that a lot of my fellow Democrats and liberals in general are way underestimating Trump. So far, things that would've totally destroyed any other candidate - D or R - have only caused Trump to surge in popularity.

This isn't a phenomenon contained solely within the realm of the far right, as say, the predicted rise of Herman Cain in 2012 was. Huffington Post's own polls showed Trump defeating Hillary and Bernie Sanders.

Because of our easy victory in 2012, and perhaps because of over-inflated confidence due to not having lost since 2004, I think we've become complacent and aren't taking Trump seriously enough.

It can be argued that our party has, for 2016, the worst roll call of candidates since 1984. There is no Democrat running that is exciting, not in the way Obama was in 2008 or Clinton was in 1992. Trump has that going for him - even though he's an old man, he's new and radical and is offering something new (if horrible) in politics. While FDR, Kennedy, Clinton and Obama had to work to become 'rockstars', Trump is already a brand and has been for a long time - to many he's "The Donald".

Contrast this to our party:

You have Hillary, who no one really particularly loves. Many Democrats loathe her; she's divisive to moderates because of her personality; she's thought of as untrustworthy by many even on the left, she's thought of as a corporatist and is battling a scandal in the middle of her campaign. You don't hear in the media about any ideas Hillary is offering America to guide us into the next decade, you simply hear about the release of her latest batch of emails. She's also thought of as a cynical, corrupt, career politician - something the rise of Trump and the appeal of Bernie Sanders shows Americans are tired of.

You have Bernie Sanders. While he is appealing in some of the same way as Trump is (thought of as a renegade guy not afraid to take on "The System"), his appeal is largely limited to young leftists, some Democrats and liberals, and some independents; he's basically the Ralph Nader of 2016. The fact that he's an old man, and a self-described Socialist, hurts him - many blue collar Americans simply won't vote for a Socialist. The fact that he's an old man limits his appeal greatly. If he were 30 years younger and more handsome, he'd be the next Obama.

You possibly have Joe Biden. He's my personal pick, but I also can't see him being electable. He's the Hubert Humphrey of the modern Democratic Party - appealing to mainstream ("Establishment") Democrats, slightly Liberal. He's got some appealing qualities - he's a straight talker, and also isn't afraid to get dirty and wouldn't cave in to Trump's attacks - but he's also seen as sort of a dummy and is incredibly gaffe prone.

O'Malley has no chance in hell of even getting the nomination, much less winning - he's a nobody - Gore probably won't run and even if he did, he's not the Al Gore of 2000 - nationally known as the liberal Vice President of a popular Administration. He's thought of in the mainstream as Al Gore, the wacky environmentalist.

Were this an election between Hillary, Biden, Sanders and Bush, the election would be a mere formality - even Pol Pot could probably win against Jeb Bush. But, with Trump in the race, I see this election as an uphill battle for our party, similar to 1972 and 1984.

We have to show America that we're not the party of rampart political correctness or corrupt, career politicians (Hillary's image is I believe also hurting the party at large), that we have something new, fresh and exciting to offer. America loves controversy - daring, divisive ideas. Obama's call for Universal Healthcare in 2008 not only brought the issue to the forefront of politics, but it made him exciting, edgy.

So, how do we climb this uphill battle and retain the White House in what will be a crucial four year period? The next President will likely be able to name 4 or even 5 Supreme Court justices - the long-term fate of the Court is at stake in this election.