Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Podium Positions and question time?
One question that arises now that CNN has added a new criteria is how will they arrange the podiums, which also seems to correlate to question time. Now that there will be 11 attending the main debate Trump will literally be center stage, but who will be to his left and right?  Using the original criteria it would be Bush and Walker, but using the new bonus criteria (based on current polling) it would be Bush and Carson. There are other big differences between the rankings based on which criteria they use to determine position, including Fiorina (is she considered 7th or 11th?)

Going out on a limb here and say that they could add up the individual candidates numbers for both criteria and average them to get their podium positions

[Slander and/or Libel]

Could they average the two numbers for placement, essentially weighting the post debate polls double? If they do that, the ranking would be:

1  Trump  25.05
2 (tie) Bush  10.5
2 (tie) Carson  10.5
4  Walker  7.8
5  Cruz  6.85
6  Rubio  5.9
7  Huckabee  4.95
8  Paul  4.05
9  Kasich  3.65
10  Fiorina  3.45
11  Christie  3.1

[Likely Voter]

CNN did briefly mention this issue when they announced their new rules
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/index.html

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If I had to guess, they will use their original formula just out of inertia. Which means Walker will still be center stage (as the old average ranks him 3rd) and Fiorina will be tacked on at the end (as she is 11th).

[jimrtex]

I'd be curious to see what FEC rule CNN is citing to claim that their hands are tied.

11 CFR 110.13 - Candidate debates.

The staging broadcaster is a participant in the debate. The FEC's concern is whether the debate is a bona fide news event, or whether it is vehicle to support a particular candidate. If it is a vehicle to support a particular candidate, it would be an illegal campaign contribution if coordinated with the campaign (corporate contribution, contribution limits, and unreported). If it were an independent activity (permitted under Citizens United), it would still have to be reported.

The job of the lawyers for CNN is to keep CNN from being sued, not to win lawsuits.

CNN will say that their hands tied (so we can blame the FEC) rather than we're protecting the bottom line.

Now that they have changed their criteria, CNN will claim that it is breaking news story.

Those parties who are suing the Commission on Presidential Debates, who stages the general election debates, will cite the changes as establishing a precedent. They are also claiming that the CPD's threshold of 15% for participation is not objective.

[jimrtex]

I think if Christie goes to the kiddie debate he'd probably kill one of them

Chairs are inanimate. Even if he broke one of the small chairs when he sat down, it wouldn't be the same as killing it.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

So isn't today the last day for polling that'll count towards debate inclusion?

If so, then aren't we locked into?:

"adult debate": the Fox 10 + Fiorina
"kiddie debate": Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Perry, Santorum

Gilmore doesn't qualify, and will have to watch from home?

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new CNN poll

NO change since last update. Based on new CNN criteria (with two ways to qualify) the CNN debate will have the same 10 people as the Fox debate plus Fiorina for a total of 11. It is still unknown how they will handle podium position (now that there are two different criteria). The early CNN debate will have the remaining candidates except Gilmore who didn't qualify.

Today is final day for qualifying polls so this is likely the final list.

PRIMETIME DEBATE
There are now two ways to qualify for the prime-time debate.

CNN ORIGINAL CRITERIA AVERAGE
Candidates who are in top 10 of average of polls from July 17 to Sept 10 qualify for prime time debate (currently averaging 14 polls)

1   Trump    23.9
2   Bush    11.5
3   Walker    9.4
4   Carson    8.9
5   Cruz    6.3
6   Rubio    5.6
7   Huckabee    5.6
8   Paul    4.7
9   Kasich    3.2
10   Christie    3.1

11   Fiorina    2.1
12   Perry    1.8
13   Santorum    1.2
14   Jindal    1.0
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3
17   Gilmore   0.1

BONUS AVERAGE
Candidates can also qualify if they are in top 10 of average of polls done after the Fox debate (currently averaging 5 polls)
(Bold indicates additional candidates who don't meet original criteria but do meet new bonus criteria)

1   Trump    27.8
2   Carson    14.0
3   Bush    9.2
4   Cruz    7.4
5   Walker    5.6
6   Rubio    5.4
7   Huckabee    4.4
8   Fiorina    4.4
9   Kasich    3.6
10   Paul    3.2

11   Christie    2.8
12   Perry    1.0
13   Santorum    0.8
14   Jindal    0.4
15   Pataki   0.2
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0


EARLY DEBATE
Candidates who do not get into prime-time debate will be invited to early debate (held immediately before). To qualify a candidate must average 1% in 3 polls conducted between July 17 and Sept. 10. Currently 5 candidates qualify.

Perry    
Santorum
Jindal    
Pataki   
Graham    

[Mr. Morden]

So this is coming up in just a week.  Has CNN released any details about whether the format will be the same as the Fox debate, who'll be doing the questioning, whether the happy hour debate will again have no audience, etc.?

[Bull Moose Base]

OK, so we potentially have Fiorina joining the grownups debate to make it 11, and potentially Gilmore failing to qualify for even the kiddie table.  That would leave just 5 candidates at the kiddie table.  What happens if Perry, or another kiddie table participant, ends up dropping out within the next two weeks?  They go ahead with the kiddie debate with only 4 candidates?

Didn't they at one time say, if the kids table were down to 4, they would split it into 8 and 6 instead? Which I think means if Perry saw the writing on the wall and wanted to screw over Kasich and Christie, he could drop out before the debate, no?

[The Mikado]

So this is coming up in just a week.  Has CNN released any details about whether the format will be the same as the Fox debate, who'll be doing the questioning, whether the happy hour debate will again have no audience, etc.?

We do know that Jake Tapper is moderating, with additional questions provided by right-wing talk radio host and Trump vendetta partner Hugh Hewitt.

[Likely Voter]

CNN will be releasing their final list at 8pm eastern and presumably there will be more details like podium positions.  Moderators are Jake Tapper, Dana Bash and guest conservative Hugh Hewitt. The only detail about the early debate so far is that it will take place immediately prior to the main debate so I expect it will have a full audience as there is no time gap for them to bring in an audience. Not sure if it is the same moderators for the early debate.

[Likely Voter]

they have released  lineup and it appears they are using the new (post-fox debate) average to determine podium position.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/cnn-reagan-debate-lineup/index.html

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah! Now we get to see a Bush-Carson-Fiorina-Trump show...

[Mr. Morden]

So will this be the last one to include a "happy hour" debate for the 2nd tier candidates?  Is CNBC really going to bother doing two debates on the same night as well?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That will make it harder to have a Christie Paul spat where they both lose.

[Angel of Death]

Are they making sure the candidates in the main debate won't get less time on average than those in the kiddie one?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

That looks so sad

[Skye]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

What, Gilmore didn't make it?

[Mr. Morden]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

That looks so sad

You think that's sad?  Here's the lineup for the 3rd tier candidate debate, which won't even be televised, and will take place at Jim Gilmore's house:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lineup for the Kiddie Table:

What, Gilmore didn't make it?

You have to get 1% in 3 different polls to be allowed to debate at all. Gilmore only got 1% in a single poll.

[Bull Moose Base]

From CNN's debate criteria:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf

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With Perry out and Gilmore not qualifying, that leaves 15 candidates, more than what they specify above. But presumably, the intention of the above proviso was to prevent an imbalance where the Grown-Up Debate has 10 candidates while the Kids Table Debate only has 4. With Fiorina added to the Grown Up Debate the imbalance is even starker and to be true to their intention, CNN could justify moving Kasich and Christie (who fall short of the Top 8 using either the original or the revised-for-Fiorina criteria) to the Kids Debate. In fact, if I were Jeff Zucker, I would so do in order to cause controversy that generates publicity for both debates.

But more likely, they'll just add Gilmore to kids table.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oh, I like the design of the primetime stage!

Good candidates on the left and establishment stooges on the right. We'll gladly claim Rubio after the establishment so ungraciously rejected their best candidate in favor of Jeb.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

From CNN's debate criteria:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/05/20/debate.criteria1.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With Perry out and Gilmore not qualifying, that leaves 15 candidates, more than what they specify above. But presumably, the intention of the above proviso was to prevent an imbalance where the Grown-Up Debate has 10 candidates while the Kids Table Debate only has 4. With Fiorina added to the Grown Up Debate the imbalance is even starker and to be true to their intention, CNN could justify moving Kasich and Christie (who fall short of the Top 8 using either the original or the revised-for-Fiorina criteria) to the Kids Debate. In fact, if I were Jeff Zucker, I would so do in order to cause controversy that generates publicity for both debates.

If they go against their stated criteria in a way that hurts candidates, it's lawsuit time. Yeah, given the timing, CNN would probably be able to reach a monetary settlement rather than actual debate inclusion, but still.

[Mr. Morden]

I assume they'll just cut the kiddie debate a bit short, so that the speaking time per candidate is not greater than the grown up debate.  They can allocate the extra time to talking head commentary and more commercials.

If Perry had dropped out weeks ago, then they might have come up with another solution.  But given the timing of this, and how they've already announced the lineup, I'm guessing they'll just go with the above solution.