Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new FOX poll

Carson, Cruz and Fiorina all bumped up one position. But Fiorina needs to do better than 5% in future polls if she wants to be sure to make it into the prime time debate.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 10 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 1)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.1
2   Bush    12.4
3   Walker    11.0
4   Carson    6.7 ↑
5   Huckabee    6.2 ↓
6   Cruz    6.1 ↑
7   Rubio    5.6 ↓
8   Paul    5.3
9   Christie    3.3
10   Kasich    3.1

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Fiorina    1.3 ↑
14   Jindal    1.3 ↓
15   Pataki   0.5 ↑
16   Graham    0.4 ↓

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

[The Mikado]

Could Graham move down to disqualified?

[Likely Voter]

Could Graham move down to disqualified?

no. Once you avg 1%+ in 3 polls you are in, Graham and Pataki and the rest all have met this criteria already. Gilmore has hit 1% only once. Two more 1% results (or one 2%) and Gilmore will qualify.

[Senator Cris]

New CNN/ORC poll: Fiorina and Kasich 5, Christie 3.
Assuming that there will be 7 polls, Fiorina needs to lead Kasich or Christie by 2.57%


Better version: http://s10.postimg.org/a45ces1u1/Debate_Average.png

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that there will be 7 polls, Fiorina needs to lead both Kasich and Christie by 2.57%

Or more precisely, she needs to lead one or the other by that amount.  She doesn't need to beat both of them to make it into the next big kids debate.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new CNN poll

Cruz now tied with Huck for the 5th spot, Kasich and Christie now tied for the last two spots. Fiorina moves past Santorum, but still trails Perry. Fiorina averaging 5% in post-debate polls but needs to do better than that to pass Christie or Kasich.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 11 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 2)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.3
2   Bush    12.5
3   Walker    10.7
4   Carson    6.9
5   Cruz    6.0 ↑
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Rubio    5.8
8   Paul    5.4
9   Kasich    3.3 ↑
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Fiorina    1.6 ↑
13   Santorum    1.4  ↓
14   Jindal    1.2
15   Pataki   0.5
16   Graham    0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Bull Moose Base]

Updated with new CNN poll

Cruz now tied with Huck for the 5th spot, Kasich and Christie now tied for the last two spots. Fiorina moves past Santorum, but still trails Perry. Fiorina averaging 5% in post-debate polls but needs to do better than that to pass Christie or Kasich.


CNN DEBATE AVERAGE
Total Polls: 11 (pre Fox Debate: 9, post-Fox Debate: 2)

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.3
2   Bush    12.5
3   Walker    10.7
4   Carson    6.9
5   Cruz    6.0 ↑
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Rubio    5.8
8   Paul    5.4
9   Kasich    3.3 ↑
10   Christie    3.3

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    2.1
12   Fiorina    1.6 ↑
13   Santorum    1.4  ↓
14   Jindal    1.2
15   Pataki   0.5
16   Graham    0.4

=======DISQUALIFIED========

17   Gilmore   0.1

↑↓ up/down change of rank

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

[Likely Voter]

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

1 CNN has a minimum requirement of getting a 1% avg in 3 polls. Gilmore has only got 1% in 1 poll.
2. CNN said if there are 14 or fewer total qualified candidates they may limit primetime debate to 8
3 The JV debate will immediately preceed the primetime debate with no time gap.

[The Mikado]

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

1 CNN has a minimum requirement of getting a 1% avg in 3 polls. Gilmore has only got 1% in 1 poll.
2. CNN said if there are 14 or fewer total qualified candidates they may limit primetime debate to 8
3 The JV debate will immediately preceed the primetime debate with no time gap.

If we end up in a situation where no poll taken after the last debate has Graham above 0, it'll be hard for CNN to justify keeping Gilmore out while Graham's on based on an ancient poll.

[Likely Voter]

Why is Gilmore disqualified but not Pataki and Graham? Also, if all 3 were out of the JV debate, Christie and Kasich both get demoted, yes? And will the JV debate happen immediately before the Trump one?

1 CNN has a minimum requirement of getting a 1% avg in 3 polls. Gilmore has only got 1% in 1 poll.
2. CNN said if there are 14 or fewer total qualified candidates they may limit primetime debate to 8
3 The JV debate will immediately preceed the primetime debate with no time gap.

If we end up in a situation where no poll taken after the last debate has Graham above 0, it'll be hard for CNN to justify keeping Gilmore out while Graham's on based on an ancient poll.

Again the rule is averaging 1%+ in three polls. Graham actually has four polls with 1% (all pre-debate), Pataki has five (4 pre, 1 post). Gilmore still has time to get two more polls so maybe he will make it, but I seriously doubt there will be much of a fuss over Gilmore. CNN has already sent invites to everyone but Gilmore and no one made a peep.

I think CNN is facing a much bigger issue with regards to Fiorina. It is quite possible that come the day of the debate people will look at the RCP average and see her ranked 7th or 8th and yet she wont be on the stage for the main debate. With the FOX debate while there was a bit of hemming and hawing, people recognized that there was a battle for 10th bettween Perry and Kasich and Kasich successfully made it with an announcement bump. The RCP average pretty much matched the Fox avg.  So far the media has yet to catch on to how weird the CNN rules are with using polls from before the Fox debate. You can be sure that in early September there is going to be some pushback if Fiorina continues to perform well and yet doesn't make the cut.

Another issue may come up with regards to podium position. If they use the overall average it is quite possible that even though he may rank 5th in post debate polls, Scott Walker will keep his 3rd place spot (right next to Trump), when Ben Carson could be the real 3rd place guy.

[Likely Voter]

Turns out at least some in the media have noticed. Politico has a story on Fiorina's challenge to get into the varsity CNN debate, which notes...

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They also add this note...

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If there are 7 polls and if Christie continues to poll at 3%, then Fiorina will need to average 6% to knock him out.

[The Other Castro]

Any chance CNN changes their rules to shorten the time-frame of poll inclusion (get rid of all pre-debate polls)? Only Christie and Kasich would probably care, and it would probably not look as bad as keeping an obviously higher than 11th place candidate out of the debate.

[jimrtex]

Is CNN using multiple polls from a single source?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is CNN using multiple polls from a single source?

Yes.

[Likely Voter]

Any chance CNN changes their rules to shorten the time-frame of poll inclusion (get rid of all pre-debate polls)? Only Christie and Kasich would probably care, and it would probably not look as bad as keeping an obviously higher than 11th place candidate out of the debate.

Hard to say but I kind of doubt it. If they changed the rules and essentially swapped out Christie for Fiorina it would look like favoritism. It could even be a possible FEC violation.

But some others are noticing the issue. The Hill has an article up: CNN criteria threaten Fiorina’s chance at main debate stage

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The article notes that CNN "declined to comment on its criteria and their potential impact on the field"

We are now coming to the end of week five of CNN's eight week window for polls in their average. Fiorina really needs the pace of new polls to pick up in the next 3 weeks. She is really at the mercy of the pollsters.

[Mr. Morden]

And I guess we still don't know what criteria CNBC will use for their debate in October?  (Nor how many participants, for that matter.)  If the CNN debate is the last one to include a "second tier" debate, then we might see some dropouts in the near future.

[eric82oslo]

Any chance CNN changes their rules to shorten the time-frame of poll inclusion (get rid of all pre-debate polls)? Only Christie and Kasich would probably care, and it would probably not look as bad as keeping an obviously higher than 11th place candidate out of the debate.

Hard to say but I kind of doubt it. If they changed the rules and essentially swapped out Christie for Fiorina it would look like favoritism. It could even be a possible FEC violation.

But some others are noticing the issue. The Hill has an article up: CNN criteria threaten Fiorina’s chance at main debate stage

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The article notes that CNN "declined to comment on its criteria and their potential impact on the field"

We are now coming to the end of week five of CNN's eight week window for polls in their average. Fiorina really needs the pace of new polls to pick up in the next 3 weeks. She is really at the mercy of the pollsters.

Maybe she could pay for one or two new polls herself? I doubt that the big media firms would have very much against that. Most newspapers hardly feel they can afford polls these days anyways.

[BlueSwan]

Honestly, CNN is outdoing FOX when it comes to stupidity here. Including ancient pre-debate polls seems completely ridiculous.

[Likely Voter]

Maybe she could pay for one or two new polls herself? I doubt that the big media firms would have very much against that. Most newspapers hardly feel they can afford polls these days anyways.

I dont see how that would be possible. Most of the polls CNN would include are from media outlets, who clearly could not take a payment from a campaign. The rest are university polls, and I still think there would be a conflict of interest if she offered to pay.

That being said, Fiorina is now explicitly fundraising with a pitch to help her get on the main stage. So it is possible that her campaign (and Super PAC) will be spending some money on paid media to boost her numbers in the polls that do come out.

Christie's campaign has also said they are going to start some advertising to boost his numbers in an effort to keep him on the stage and if Kasich's numbers start slipping, I bet his Super PAC would also do some national advertising.  If it comes down to an ad war for 10th place, one campaign could end up blowing their cash and still end up in 11th, and that campaign may fold.

[Likely Voter]

Honestly, CNN is outdoing FOX when it comes to stupidity here. Including ancient pre-debate polls seems completely ridiculous.

538 has now caught on to the CNN criteria issue with an article What Carly Fiorina Needs To Make CNN’s Main Stage Debate. They discuss argument for including older polls...

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They also conclude that Fiorina may not make it...

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[The Other Castro]

Her only chance might be if Kentucky sticks with a primary and Paul drops out before the next debate, since he'd be dropping out before Iowa anyway. Unlikely, but not impossible.

[Jacobtm]

I would prefer they just lump all the people below 10% into one debate, and leave the real debate for those above 10%, which would be Trump Bush Walker.

[Likely Voter]

And the backlash begins...The Hill: Fiorina supporters slam 'ludicrous' CNN debate methodology

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CNN is still not giving any comment, and for now Fiorina's campaign has not officially come out against CNN's criteria. They are probably waiting to see how things go with the release of new polls but it has been 17 days since the Fox debate and there have only been 2 (live phone) polls released. There are 18 days until the cutoff and she needs ~8 new polls to get her a spot (depending on how well she performs vs. Kasich and Christie), so it isn't looking good for now.

[Maxwell]

It seems ridiculous to put a sinking ship candidate like Chris Christie on the stage when, now, she basically triples his level of support.

[Likely Voter]

The Fiorina campaign has now officially started calling foul for CNN using so many pre-debate polls in their average. This morning on Morning Joe, Fiorina said:

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Then her campaign posted an attack on CNN and the RNC which includes this:

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The Fiorina campaign offers a solution, notably to weight the post-debate polls differently.

Politico reports that before going public the campaign tried to convince CNN and RNC to change the rules but they were rebuffed. CNN also made it clear they arent changing the rules...

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Politico also reports there is a new Quinnipiac is coming out tomorrow and Monmouth has one coming out next week but that the labor day weekend will preclude a 'flood of new polls' right before the CNN cutoff (like what was seen for the Fox poll). They specifically reported that NBC is unlikely to have a new poll.

So as of now, it is not looking good for Carly.